thetaOwl
HomeOptionsSMCIReports

SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $32.79EOD only
Max Pain
$30.50
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.17
6.6% from close
Price Gap
-2.29
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
54
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

SMCI 83d out from earnings; IV elevated, term structure upward. Historical beat rate 60%. Mixed flow with notable call buying at $33.5/$36. Gamma pinning near $31. Watch for breakout.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: 83d out; Use defined-risk strategies due to time decay and high IV. Monitor gamma pinning at $31 and call wall $35-$40.
📊Historical beat rate 60%, but small sample size limits significance.
🛡️Gamma pinning at $31 may keep price contained short-term.
💡Unusual $70 put activity likely a close, not new bearish signal.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (83 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (2d): ±$1.68 (5.3%)
  • 2026-05-22 (9d): ±$3.29 (10.3%)
  • 2026-05-29 (16d): ±$4.18 (13.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping; 2d ±5.3%, 9d ±10.3%, 16d ±13.0% expected moves.

Crush estimate: N/A (no event for 83 days)

Skew: OTM puts show elevated IV (e.g., $70 put IV 467%), suggesting tail risk pricing.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Limited data; 3/5 quarters beat, but avg move magnitude unknown.

Directional bias: Neutral; beat rate 60% but sample small.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $30.32/$33.69; 1w $28.71/$35.28
2Max pain pins: $31 (2026-05-15); $30 (2026-05-22); $28 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

Large call buys at $33.5 and $36 (May 22) with vol/OI >8.

Bullish positioning for near-term upside, possibly targeting $35-$40 resistance.

Put volume at $31 (Jun 5) and $28.5 (May 29) with vol/OI >6.

Downside hedging or bearish bets below support.

Unusual $70 put block (May 15) with IV 467% likely a close.

Large OTM put likely a closing trade, not new bearish flow.

Strategies

Call Calendar
Sell 2026-05-22 $35.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $35.00 call
Debit: $1.17-$1.42
Max loss: $1.42
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if price drops below $31 invalidation; roll if IV flattens.
Best fit: upward term structure, call flow, and liquidity pass.
Outperforms: Sells short-dated high IV, buys longer-dated lower IV; bullish bias from call buying.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-29 $30.00/$27.00 put wing and $35.00/$36.00 call wing
Credit: $0.91-$1.12
Max loss: $1.88
Max gain: $1.12
BE: 28.88 / 36.12
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings; adjust wings if pinning shifts. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Neutral positioning with defined risk; less optimal due to liquidity concerns.
Outperforms: Sells put spread and call spread to capture time decay in high IV.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-05-29 $27.00 put + sell $35.00 call
Credit: $1.26-$1.55
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.55
BE: 25.45 / 36.55
Trigger: Set stop-loss; roll or hedge if approaching strikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Volume below 5.
High IV attractive but unlimited tail risk and no liquidity pass.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call to collect premium; exposed to gap moves.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Time decay (theta) works against long premium with 83 days to event.
!High IV may contract, hurting long vol positions.
!Mixed flow suggests no clear directional edge.
!Gamma pinning near $31 could cause sharp reversals.

What to Watch

?Price action around $31 max pain and $35 call wall.
?IV changes; if term structure flattens, volatility dropping.
?Earnings date confirmation; any shifts in expected move.
?Volume in $33.5 calls to gauge bullish conviction.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.