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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $32.00EOD only
Max Pain
$31.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.69
5.3% from close
Price Gap
-1.00
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
65
High premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bullish flow regime with gamma pinning and heavy call accumulation; earnings 82 days away.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Unusual call buying at $33-$35 for May 22 expiry indicates strong short-term bullish bias.
🔵Heavy call accumulation on May 22 expiry: $33 (9.4k), $34 (8.6k), $35 (12.4k) – bullish flow.
🟡Spot at $32.95 vs max pain $31; ~6.4% gap suggests potential mean reversion risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-04 (82 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (1d): ±$1.20 (3.6%)
  • 2026-05-22 (8d): ±$3.10 (9.4%)
  • 2026-05-29 (15d): ±$4.15 (12.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated 60-77% due to high vol regime; earnings far out so no term structure shift.

Crush estimate: N/A - earnings not imminent.

Skew: Put skew minimal; deep OTM put ($70) shows anomalous high IV.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not applicable for current setup.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish; 60% beat rate.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $31.82/$34.23; 1w $29.93/$36.13
2Max pain pins: $31 (2026-05-15); $30 (2026-05-22); $30 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

Massive call buys: May 22 $33 (9.4k vol, 15x OI), $34 (8.6k), $35 (12.4k); May 15 $33 (24.5k).

Aggressive bullish positioning targeting $33-$35 by May 22 expiration.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-22 $31.00/$30.00 put wing and $35.00/$36.00 call wing
Credit: $0.43-$0.52
Max loss: $0.48
Max gain: $0.52
BE: 30.48 / 35.52
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or adjust if spot breaks wings.
Captures high IV with defined risk, aligns with range-bound pinning.
Outperforms: Sells wings at support/resistance to profit from IV contraction.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-05-22 $31.00 put + sell $35.00 call
Credit: $1.41-$1.73
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.73
BE: 29.27 / 36.73
Trigger: Roll untested side if tested; close at 50% gain or IV contraction.
Leverages high IV with bullish tilt, but unlimited risk reduces rank.
Outperforms: Sells put at support and call at resistance to collect premium.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot at $32.95, well above max pain $31; pinning pressure could pull price lower.
!High IV may contract; short-dated options expensive.
!Earnings in 82 days; current moves are event-independent.

What to Watch

?Spot holding above $32 support; break below could test $31 max pain.
?Call OI wall at $35-$40 cap upside; heavy $33-$35 open interest.
?Volume in May 22 calls to confirm sustained bullish conviction.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.