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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $28.56EOD only
Max Pain
$24.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.00
7.0% from close
Price Gap
-4.56
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
90
High premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings on 2026-05-05; market priced for volatile quarter with neutral-to-slightly-bullish bias. Probability-weighted pin range mid-$24s; expectation that spot will gravitate to $24–$25 into expiry if pre-earnings put buying continues.

Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 15.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: Mixed flow and pinning reduce conviction vs base
Most important: Event date 2026-05-05, consensus EPS $0.42, revenue $520M; guidance beat/raise sensitivity high — 1c EPS beat or 1% rev beat could push >6% upside; miss of 3c or 3% rev shortfall risks >8% downside and heavier post-print IV reprice.
⚠️Event 2026-05-05 — consensus EPS $0.42 / rev $520M; guidance sensitivity: 1c EPS or 1% rev moves >6%
📉Expected post-release IV crush ~30–45% on front-week; size trades accordingly within 24–48h

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (15 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (4d): ±$1.87 (6.5%)
  • 2026-05-01 (11d): ±$2.89 (10.0%)
  • 2026-05-08 (18d): ±$4.53 (15.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV 67–83% (expiries within 7 days); near-month out to 30 days sits 35–50%; 3–12 month tail IV elevated 120–160% from long-dated put demand.

Crush estimate: Post-release front-week IV expected to drop 30–45% absolute (e.g., 80% -> ~45–55%), with near-month falling 15–25% if guidance neutral.

Skew: Put skew steep from $22–$28 (25–40 delta puts 15–25 vol points richer than calls); skew steepness likely to compress on a clean beat.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Last 8 earnings: average absolute move 6.8% vs implied 7.2% (moves ~0.9x expected).

Directional bias: Empirical slight upside bias from pinning: when pre-earnings put concentration present, stock closed within $1 of put cluster 60% of instances.

Key Levels

1Max pain pins: $25 (2026-04-24); $24 (2026-05-01); $24 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Large concentrated front-week put prints at $25 and $26 (4/29–5/1 fills).

Dealer delta-hedging buying likely to support spot near $24–$25 into expiry; trigger: sustained >$2M notional daily put prints keep pin pressure.

Significant call OI wall $30–$40 for near-month; single long-dated $70 put block (~$1.2M notional).

Call OI may cap rallies; long-dated put is tail hedge that can amplify downside gamma if spot gaps down post-earnings.

Strategies

Earnings iron condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $25.00/$24.00 put wing and $30.00/$33.00 call wing
Credit: $1.07-$1.30
Max loss: $1.70
Max gain: $1.30
BE: 23.70 / 31.30
Trigger: Close or roll if spot breaches wings or if pre-earnings put flow >$2M/day; trim after guidance shakeout.
Limits downside vs pinning while collecting rich prem around earnings.
Outperforms: Sell wings around expected $24–25 pin to harvest front/near-month IV while capping loss from a guidance-driven gap.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call diagonal (calendar/diagonal)
Sell 2026-05-08 $30.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $31.00 call
Debit: $0.86-$1.05
Max loss: $1.05
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Enter before IV pop; harvest time decay pre-print or roll long if spot trends above short strike.
Exploits front-week IV richness and cheaper June tail to buy protection/directional upside.
Outperforms: Sell short-dated call to collect IV premium, buy longer call to retain upside with lower theta decay and lower net cost.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-08 $26.00 put + sell $35.00 call
Credit: $1.40-$1.71
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.71
BE: 24.29 / 36.71
Front/near-month IV rich; average moves ~0.9x priced but crush expected; collect premium with expirations after the print to avoid assignment before print.
Outperforms: Sell balanced front-month strangle into the upcoming earnings to collect elevated IV and capture expected post-print IV reprice.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush magnitude 30–45% within 24–48h post-release (trade-size risk for short vol)
!Pinning risk: sustained put nets >$2M/day through 5/1 raises chance of expiry pin to $24–$25
!Guidance sensitivity: 1% revenue miss -> >8% gap down, amplified by long-dated put gamma

What to Watch

?Pre-earnings daily put notional flow (> $2M/day increases pin odds)
?Front-week IV move: rise >8 vol points signals growing fear; drop >10 vol points signals consensus beat priced
?Company guidance language and Q&A — any tightening/weakening changes skew quickly
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.