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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $50.17EOD only
Max Pain
$39.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.84
7.7% from close
Price Gap
-11.17
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
56
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 2, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Neutral-to-cautious: elevated IV into earnings with mixed flow and pinning gamma; expected move priced ~10–16%.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 14.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Pinning gamma around $24–$25 and large call OI $30–$40 that could anchor price; front-term IV vulnerable to crush.
⚠️Front-week IV elevated; expect significant post-earnings compressions.
📌Pinning zone $24–$25 supported by put OI floor — watch flow there.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,392 (30.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (18 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (7d): ±$2.00 (7.0%)
  • 2026-05-01 (14d): ±$3.10 (10.9%)
  • 2026-05-08 (21d): ±$4.66 (16.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep: front-week/1–3w IV elevated (~60–80%) vs longer dated.

Crush estimate: Material — front-term IV could compress ~30–50% on a non-surprising print.

Skew: Put OI concentrated below spot (~30% below); skew shows call walls above $30.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves roughly in line with priced expectations; beat rate 50% (2/4).

Directional bias: Mixed-to-slightly-bullish flow (call prints) but balanced by pinning puts.

Key Levels

1$20.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $26.55/$30.56
3Max pain pins: $25 (2026-04-17); $24 (2026-04-24); $24 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Big unusual call prints (May22 $29, Sep18 $37, Apr17 $29.5).

Dealer selling/upside interest — adds call-side pressure above $29–30.

Put OI concentration ~30% below spot; net premium negative.

Pinning gamma risk near $24–25 supports range-bound action into earnings.

Strategies

Post-earnings iron condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $25.00/$21.00 put wing and $30.00/$37.00 call wing
Credit: $2.06-$2.51
Max loss: $4.49
Max gain: $2.51
BE: 22.49 / 32.51
Trigger: Trim or roll if price breaches wings or front IV fails to compress; close into fast IV crush pre/post print.
Defines risk, sells elevated front IV while capping tails and sits around pin zone.
Outperforms: Collects rich front-week premium and limits loss if pinning keeps price ~24–25; suited when you expect IV crush and limited move.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call diagonal (calendar)
Sell 2026-05-08 $33.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $35.00 call
Debit: $0.17-$0.21
Max loss: $0.21
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Buy back short leg if price rallies above ~25 or IV differential narrows; hold back-month for later upside.
Exploits steep term-structure: front IV likely to compress faster than back month.
Outperforms: Short near-term calls vs longer calls to monetize front-week premium while keeping upside exposure; smaller cost basis.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle (high risk)
Sell 2026-05-08 $24.00 put + sell $35.00 call
Credit: $1.08-$1.32
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.32
BE: 22.68 / 36.32
Trigger: Use strict size limits, hedge or buy wings if movement exceeds expectations; avoid large net short exposure.
Highest premium-to-cost but unlimited risk and pinning/potential gap vulnerability.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call across earnings to capture priced move if crush occurs; vulnerable to gaps beyond wings.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Large front-term IV crush risk
!Pinning around $24–$25 can limit upside
!Spot ~14% above marker price raises gap/volatility risk

What to Watch

?Unusual prints: May22 $29 call, Apr24 $28 put, Apr17 $29.5 call
?Price action vs max-pain $24–$25
?Front-week IV and VIX reactions pre- and post-release
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.