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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $28.40EOD only
Max Pain
$24.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.87
3.1% from close
Price Gap
-4.40
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
39
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Confidence 4.5/10. Best strategy: defined-risk premium sales that respect the narrow near-term expected-move band (2d EM $26.01–$28.58) — e.g., put credit spreads or short iron/strangle around the front-week/weeklies. Key risk: guidance or an earnings surprise on 2026-05-05 that breaks dealer pinning and triggers a rapid repricing of IV and spot away from dealer-concentrated levels.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 13.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Front-week term structure and heavy GEX pinning at $27.50/$27.00 will bias price to those pins into short expirations; a decisive break outside the 1-week EM bounds ($24.77–$29.82) invalidates short-premium approaches quickly.
📅Earnings date 2026-05-05 (20d) sits inside a high-IV 16–37d band — choose expirations intentionally relative to that date.
📈Dealer GEX is +$105.1M with concentrated pins at $27.50 and $27.00 — expect magnet behavior absent a catalyst.
⚠️Max pain near-term levels ($24 on 2026-04-17, $23 on 2026-04-24, $24 on 2026-05-01) trend slightly lower; downside gap risk remains meaningful.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,395 (26.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (20 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (2d): ±$1.28 (4.7%)
  • 2026-04-24 (9d): ±$2.53 (9.3%)
  • 2026-05-01 (16d): ±$3.40 (12.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front expirations elevated but not extreme: 2d ATM IV 64.4% → 9d 69.7% → 16d 72.8% with a longer-tenor hump (23–37d ATM IV 82.5–87%). The earnings date is 2026-05-05 (20d), so two-week to one-month tenors are most rich versus the immediate 2–9d expirations.

Crush estimate: Moderate–High: buying a 16–37d long vol into the May 5 report will still see a material post-event IV drop vs the 72–86% band; expect a meaningful IV pullback especially in expirations that straddle the event (16–37d).

Skew: Downside put IV is richer on longer tenors (put-heavy OI at $20 and concentrated long-dated put interest), while short-dated call OI clusters (26.00/27.50/27.00/28.00) create asymmetric dealer flows that favor pinning inside the EM bounds.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Mixed: historical beat rate 50% (2/4). Short-term observed realized moves have alternated — last quarter saw a +0.69 vs est 0.49 surprise and out-sized move; overall the stock has sometimes moved beyond front-week EMs but not consistently.

Directional bias: Neutral-to-slight-bullish skew: deterministic net premium flow is bearish (-$13.3M) but GEX positive (+$105.1M) and spot sits above max pain and dealer pins, which tends to produce pin-to-call-wall dynamics rather than outright collapse.

Key Levels

1$20.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $26.01/$28.58; 1w $24.77/$29.82
3Max pain pins: $24 (2026-04-17); $23 (2026-04-24); $24 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call OI concentrated at $26.00 (35,275 OI), $27.50 (30,455 OI) and $27.00 (21,087 OI).

Dealer hedging of these call walls is a pin magnet around $27.0–$27.5 into short expirations; expect spot gravitation unless a strong fundamental trigger breaks it.

Large put OI clustered at $20.00 (30,395 and other entries).

Structural downside floor around $20 with gamma flip near $20 reduces tail acceleration until that level is threatened — but it is far from spot (~26.7% below).

Net premium flow is net bearish (-$13.3M) while P/C volume is light (0.48).

Flow into outright buying of downside premium is limited; current orderflow is mixed and not overwhelmingly directional.

Strategies

Defined-risk put credit (harvest pin support)
Sell 2026-05-01 $25.00/$22.00 put spread
Credit: $0.46-$0.57
Max loss: $2.43
Max gain: $0.57
BE: $24.43
Trigger: Close into the May-5 print or if spot closes below $24.77 (1-week EM lower rail) or show signs of momentum; trim if short-put becomes ITM by >1.5% intraday.
Best risk-adjusted way to collect premium given strong positive GEX (+$105.1M), near-term dealer pinning at $27.50/$27.00, and a support read at $23.89 inside the 2-week EM.
Outperforms: Sell a short-dated (14–45d window) put near delta ~0.30 and buy a lower put for protection to create a tight, defined-risk credit spread protected by dealer pinning and the $23.89 support.
Underperforms: Break below support threatens short-put strike.
Event long straddle (pure vol play)
Buy 2026-05-01 $28.00 put + buy $28.00 call
Debit: $3.11-$3.80
Max loss: $3.80
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 24.20 / 31.80
Trigger: Scale out into the move; be prepared to close after the first big leg or on a sharp IV collapse — set alerts at breaches of the 1-week rails ($24.77/$29.82).
If expecting a large surprise or guidance shock around May-5, owning ATM straddle (16–37d) captures directional risk without needing to pick a side despite heavy IV crush risk.
Outperforms: Buy ATM calls and puts in the 14–45d window to get gamma into the event; this play profits from a move larger than the high front-mid IV already prices.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: High — an earnings-guidance surprise on 2026-05-05 can gap the stock beyond the 1-week EM ($24.77–$29.82) and break dealer pins.
!IV crush: Moderate–High for 16–37d expirations; short-premium strategies must be managed into/after the print to avoid being caught by rapid IV moves.
!Liquidity: Front-week and common strikes (26.00/27.00/27.50/28.00/30.00) show good OI and volume; farther wings or odd expirations may have thin two-way markets.
!Positioning risk: Positive GEX (+$105.1M) supports pinning, but net premium flow is bearish (-$13.3M) — conflicting flow can produce sudden directional moves when re-priced.

What to Watch

?Price behavior vs dealer pin cluster at $27.50/$27.00 over the next 2–9 days (pin hold = favorable for short premium).
?IV slope between 16–37d (72.8% → 82.5%): compressing slope indicates sellable front vol; steepening indicates demand for protection.
?Net premium flow and trade prints on $28.50 (unusual activity) and heavy call prints at $30.00 and $32.00 which would signal bullish impulse.
?Breaches of EM guardrails: 2d $26.01/$28.58 and 1w $24.77/$29.82 — crossing these levels invalidates range-bound assumptions.

Read the Earnings analysis for SMCI for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.