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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $38.19EOD only
Max Pain
$32.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.15
5.6% from close
Price Gap
-6.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
24
Low premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 27, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 27, 2026 close
SMCI Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026
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Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

SMCI has elevated IV (Avg IV 83.5%) and clear dealer pinning in the near term (GEX concentration at $25.00 and $24.00). Best strategy for most traders is to sell defined-risk premium (short iron/condor) into the May earnings run-up or run a calibrated debit on directional conviction (small call spread or straddle) sized for larger-than-EM moves. Key risk is a gap greater than the stated Expected Move windows (next 21d EM ±$3.65) driven by guidance or a surprise that overwhelms dealer pinning.

Confidence:
4 / 10
base 4.0 (provided); +1 pinning/GEX concentrated at near strikes; -1 spot 14.8% above MP; -0.0 other
Most important: Monitor IV term structure into the May 5 earnings (ATM IV rises from ~69.8% in 4/17 to 75.8% on 5/01) — that sets both premium available to sellers and the likely size of post-event crush.
📅Upcoming earnings confirmed for 2026-05-05 (EPS est $0.62).
📈Near-term pinning: GEX +$8.3M at $25.00 and +$4.9M at $24.00 — expect friction in breaking out of $24-$26.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Gamma flip at ~$20 (30,451 put OI concentration, ~20.8% below spot) — below that dealers may amplify moves; current spot $25.26 is well above flip.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (25 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-01 (21d): : ±$3.65 (14.4%): [$21.62 - $28.91]

IV Setup

Term structure: Rising into the early-May window: ATM IV 69.8% (4/17) -> 70.7% (4/24) -> 75.8% (5/01) -> 82.9% (5/08). That creates a clear pick-up in premium into the May earnings bucket.

Crush estimate: ~6-10 vol pts for the immediate post-earnings slice (ATM 75.8% pre-event likely to reprice back toward the 70s after results); sellers should expect meaningful but not total IV collapse given elevated baseline.

Skew: Skew fairly balanced around spot; short-dated puts/calls around $25 show similar IVs (~69-72%) and put/call OI near parity (P/C OI 0.91), though calls have larger premium flow (see top premium flow).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters in provided table)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient per-quarter move data to compute average realized move vs EM; earnings table shows mixed EPS surprises (+0.41, -0.10, -0.07, +0.04).

Directional bias: Mixed (recent surprises both positive and negative), no persistent one-direction gap

Key Levels

1$25.00
2$24.00
3$23.00
4$26.00
5$27.00
6EM: $23.30-$27.23 (next 7d) / $23.98-$26.55 (next 14d)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call premium flow into strikes $26/$30/$35 and concentrated premium at $26.00 (Net Call $3,820,028) and $30.00 (Net Call $3,422,496).

Buy-side is paying up for upside exposure in May/near-term; dealers are long gamma on near strikes (GEX +31.2M overall) which supports pinning into $24-$26 range.

Large notional at $70 PUTs (Net Put $-16,957,611) — concentrated institutional trade far OTM for later expiry.

Tail protection or structured sell-side positioning elsewhere; not directly actionable for front-week earnings but indicates non-linear flow in the chain.

Strategies

Defined-risk iron condor (sell premium)
Sell 2026-05-01 26.00C / Buy 2026-05-01 28.00C; Sell 2026-05-01 24.00P / Buy 2026-05-01 22.00P
Credit: $1.10-$1.50
Max loss: $6.90
Max gain: $1.50
BE: Upside BE 29.50 / Downside BE 20.50
Trigger: Enter 3-7 days before earnings while IV is elevated but before any last-minute IV ramp
Large GEX at $25/$24 provides pinning support; selling defined risk captures elevated prem while keeping risk controlled if a gap occurs.
Outperforms: SMCI stays within the May 01 EM range (roughly $21.62-$28.91) and dealers keep the stock pinned near $24-$26
Underperforms: A >~$3.00 gap occurs on earnings day or implied vol re-prices much higher before entry
Long ATM straddle (vol play)
Buy 2026-05-01 25.00 straddle (buy 25C + buy 25P)
Debit: $3.50-$4.00
Max loss: $4.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Downside ~$21.50 / Upside ~$29.50 (approx, aligns with 21d EM bounds)
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV into the 5/01 ATM (75.8%) is already elevated; avoid if IV runs up much above 85%
High avg IV and rising term structure into May make a straddle viable for large surprises; downside is IV crush and pin-induced small moves.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds EM by 20%+ or IV spikes further into event
Underperforms: Stock pins inside the $24-$26 pin band and IV collapses post-event
Bull call spread (directional, limited debit)
Buy 2026-05-01 25.00C / Sell 2026-05-01 27.00C
Debit: $0.70-$1.20
Max loss: $1.20
Max gain: $1.80
BE: $26.20
Trigger: Buy 1-5 days before earnings on constructive flow (continued net call buying) or fresh positive news
Captures upside captured by call flow at 25-27 with limited debit; benefits from call-heavy premium flow while capping cost.
Outperforms: Positive earnings/guidance pushes stock above ~26.20 with limited IV crush impact on the spread
Underperforms: Stock remains pinned or gaps down; large IV crush without sufficient directional move

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM (21d) ±$3.65 implies possible move to $21.62-$28.91; guidance-driven gaps can exceed these bounds and blow up short premium positions.
!IV crush: ATM IV sits ~75.8% into May — long vol will suffer a material IV decay after results; sellers should price for ~6-10 vol pt compression.
!Liquidity: Near-term expirations (4/17 and 4/24) are active with high volume and OI at 25/24 strikes; 5/01 is liquid but check live quotes for legging risk.
!Sizing: Given GEX concentration and mixed flow, keep position size small relative to account and use defined-risk structures where possible.
!Pinning risk: Heavy GEX at $25.00 (+$8.3M) and $24.00 (+$4.9M) increases chance of the stock staying inside the $24-$26 band — short premium strategies may be more likely to collect full premium but can be hurt by sudden directional gaps.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into May 1 and May 5 (ATM IV rising from 69.8% -> 75.8% is the signal to sell or buy)
?Unusual call flow at 25.50-26.00 and large call premium prints (top premium flow shows concentrated call buying at 26/30/35)
?Price action around $25.00 and $24.00 (GEX pin magnets) — sustained move away from these levels reduces chance of full premium decay for sellers
?Any pre-earnings guidance or analyst notes that would justify a gap outside the EM bounds
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.