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SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Close $33.46EOD only

Max Pain

$31.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.13

3.4% from close

Price Gap

-1.96

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SMCI options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 21, 2026 close

SMCI Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 2026-05-05 (approx 29 days out). IV elevated (82.4% for 18d), but term structure shows no sharp kink, suggesting earnings date not fully priced. Best strategy: short premium via iron condor, leveraging pinning near max pain and historical under-move bias. Key risk: gap beyond EM bounds given high volatility.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.2% from MP

Most important: Spot at $22.05 is 0.2% from max pain $22.00 for 4/10, reinforcing pinning regime; GEX +$31.1M supports stability near current levels.

📅Earnings expected 2026-05-05 (approx 29 days out), not fully priced in IV term structure

⚖️Spot at $22.05 aligns with max pain $22.00 for 4/10, reinforcing pinning regime

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High (IV 89.7%)

Gamma Regime

Pinning (GEX +$31.1M)

Flow Regime

Mixed (net prem -$26.6M, P/C 0.83)

Spot vs MP

At max pain $22

Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Below $20, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (29 days)explicit

Expected moves:

4/24 (18d): ±$3.21 (14.6%) [$18.84 - $25.26]

IV Setup

Term structure: Flat to slightly elevated (82.4% for 18d vs 80.2% for 4d), no sharp kink indicates earnings date not fully priced

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts post-earnings, back to 70-75% range

Skew: Puts slightly richer (P/C OI 0.79), but flow mixed with net premium negative

Historical Context

Beat rate: 50% (2/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for move vs EM, but surprises: +0.41, -0.10, -0.07, +0.04

Directional bias: 2/4 gap up post-earnings

Key Levels

1$22.00 (max pain, GEX +$3.5M)

2$20.00 (put floor, gamma flip)

3$23.50 (call OI cluster, GEX +$12.5M)

4$24.00 (call OI wall, GEX +$8.2M)

5$25.00 (call OI cluster, GEX +$7.9M)

Flow Highlights

Heavy $70.00 PUT buying (Vol=3,550 vs OI=800) for 5/15, net premium -$18.2M

Likely protective hedging or speculative downside bet, but far OTM (217% from spot)

$24.00 CALL flow: $849,222 premium, net +$655,193

Bullish earnings bet targeting resistance near $24

Strategies

Iron condor

Sell $20.00/$18.00 PUT x $24.00/$25.00 CALL 2026-04-24

Credit: $1.50-$2.00

Max loss: $2.50

Max gain: $1.75

BE: $18.25

Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV remains elevated

Pinning regime (GEX +$31.1M, spot at max pain) supports range-bound move; EM 14.6% provides wide buffer

Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($18.84-$25.26) and pins near max pain

Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >20% or breaks through key levels

Long strangle

Buy $20.00 PUT x $24.00 CALL 2026-04-24

Max loss: $4.00

Max gain: Unlimited

BE: 16.00/28.00

Trigger: Enter if IV dips below 80% pre-earnings

High IV (82.4%) but historical beat rate 50% suggests potential for larger surprise; targets breakouts beyond key levels

Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >30% (beyond $18.84-$25.26)

Underperforms: Stock pins near $22, IV crushes post-earnings

Bull put spread

Sell $20.00 PUT x Buy $18.00 PUT 2026-04-24

Credit: $0.80-$1.20

Max loss: $1.20

Max gain: $0.90

BE: $19.20

Trigger: Enter if spot holds above $22 support

Pinning near $22 and positive GEX favor upside; put OI at $20.00 provides hedging pressure

Outperforms: Stock stays above $20.00 (support level)

Underperforms: Stock breaks below $18.00 (put floor)

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM ±14.6% ($18.84-$25.26) but high volatility could lead to larger moves

!IV crush may be moderate (10-15 vol pts) given no sharp term structure kink

!Liquidity sufficient (2M+ OI, 170K volume), but watch for wide spreads on OTM strikes

!Sizing: Keep positions small due to elevated IV and mixed flow signals

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into earnings for crush plays

?Spot action near $22 max pain for pinning confirmation

?Unusual OTM put activity (e.g., $70.00 PUTs) for hedging shifts

How to Use These Reports

This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.