base 5; +2 high IV; +1 strong pinning; -1 extreme volatility; +0 earnings distant
Term structure: Steep upward slope from 65.7% (8d) to 85% (351d). Hump around 77-79% in mid-2026.
Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 12.5% (spot $119.83 vs MP $137)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$24.9M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$5.00 — Extremely low gamma flip at ~$5 due to massive $5 put OI (26K+) — pinning force is strong above this level.
OI concentrations: Major call walls: $135 (33K OI), $140 (33K OI). Major put walls: $5 (26K OI), $100 (25K OI).
#1put credit spread
Sell $100/$95 put spread 2026-04-24 (22 DTE)
Defined risk below major $100 put OI wall (25K+). Strong pinning regime supports staying above support. High IV provides excellent credit for 22 DTE. 16.5% OTM provides >2x the expected move buffer ($16.73). Spot has moved down from prior report, increasing margin of safety.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if spot closes below $105. Roll down/out if $100 tested but not breached.
#2iron condor
Sell $105/$100P x $140/$145C 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
Capitalizes on pinning between major OI levels ($100P wall, $140C wall). Wide $35 wings provide 12.4% buffer down and 16.8% buffer up. High IV yields >1:1 credit/risk ratio. 29 DTE optimal for theta decay with elevated IV.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently — roll tested side out 2 weeks. Exit entire position if spot breaches $108 or $142.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $110 put 2026-05-15 (43 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own MSTR. 8.2% below spot, below gamma flip, and above major $100 support. Extreme IV provides ~12% premium for 43 DTE (>100% annualized). High credit significantly lowers cost basis.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if ITM. Close at 70% profit. Accept assignment below $110 only if bullish long-term.
#4call credit spread
Sell $140/$145 call spread 2026-04-17 (15 DTE)
Targets major call wall at $140 (33K OI). Spot 16.8% below strike. High IV in short expiry provides accelerated decay. Defined risk with positive GEX pinning upward moves. Shorter DTE capitalizes on faster theta decay.
Mgmt: Close at 80% profit (fast decay). Exit if spot closes above $135. Do not hold through 4/17 expiration if near strike.
!Extreme volatility (IV 85%) — position size must account for larger-than-normal price swings (±$19.73 for 29 DTE).
!Massive negative premium flow (-$287M net) suggests institutional put buying — monitor for continued directional pressure.
!Unusual activity in 4/10 $125 Calls (26,381 vol, 5.7x OI) and $5 Puts (1,511 vol, 8.4x OI) indicates speculative/hedging flows — respect near-term volatility.
!Earnings estimated 4/30/2026 (~28 days out) — avoid selling naked options beyond 4/24 expiration. Close all positions before announcement.
!Gamma flip at ~$5 is extremely low — pinning force is strong but breakdown below $100 could be violent given negative flow.
!Spot has declined ~$5 since prior report, moving closer to put support. Monitor $115 and $110 levels for near-term stability.