thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSTRReports

MSTR

Strategy IncClose $184.42EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$10.10
5.5% from close
Price Gap
-14.42
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
43
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.87
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR earnings 78 days out; near-term IV elevated in contango. Historical beat rate low at 20%. Flow shows aggressive put hedging on dips and long-dated tail puts, mixed with call buying near resistance.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.7% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: 78 days to earnings; focus on near-term options volatility and BTC correlation.
🐻Deep OTM puts (Jun $46, $48) with extreme IV suggest tail hedging.
⚡Contango steepens; short-term options expensive relative to longer.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (78 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (2d): ±$8.15 (4.6%)
  • 2026-05-22 (9d): ±$15.15 (8.5%)
  • 2026-05-29 (16d): ±$19.22 (10.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango: 2d 4.6%, 9d 8.5%, 16d 10.8% expected moves.

Crush estimate: Pre-earnings; no crush expected yet.

Skew: Put skew elevated at long-dated deep OTM strikes (e.g., Jun $46 put IV 176%).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Sample too small; only 1 beat in 5 quarters.

Directional bias: Bearish given low beat rate, but limited data.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $169.88/$186.18; 1w $162.88/$193.18
2Max pain pins: $170 (2026-05-15); $172 (2026-05-22); $175 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put buying on May 22 $157.5 (vol/OI 4.4) and $133 (vol/OI 2.4).

Aggressive hedging for downside to ~$133, 25% below spot.

Large call volume on May 15 $177.5 (vol/OI 2.1) and May 22 $180 (vol/OI 1.6).

Call buying near resistance, possibly bullish or covering.

Strategies

Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-29 $170.00 put + sell $190.00 call
Credit: $10.17-$12.43
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $12.43
BE: 157.57 / 202.43
Trigger: Monitor BTC volatility; adjust or close if gamma spikes.
Highest theta capture amid steep contango and elevated near-term IV.
Outperforms: Sells OTM options to harvest premium, betting implied move overshoots realized.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Put calendar
Sell 2026-05-22 $170.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $170.00 put
Debit: $6.03-$7.37
Max loss: $7.37
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if BTC breaks $170; watch for IV expansion.
Exploits front-month IV premium while long back-month protects against sharp drops.
Outperforms: Short front put, long back put: benefits from time decay and vol term structure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Low historical beat rate (20%) raises execution risk.
!High IV in near-term options may overprice moves.
!BTC correlation adds exogenous risk.

What to Watch

?Spot action around key levels $170 (max pain) and $180 resistance.
?BTC price and volatility trends.
?Unusual activity in May 22 $157.5 put open interest growth.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.