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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $179.36EOD only
Max Pain
$149.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.75
5.4% from close
Price Gap
-30.36
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
34
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 22, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Mixed-to-cautious: high IV and concentrated call OI near 185–195 suggest pinning risk; historical beat rate weak (25%) so directional surprise risk is two-sided.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 15.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Heavy call OI around 185–195 vs spot ~166 creates upside pinning exposure (spot ~12% below max-pain).
📌Call OI wall 185–195 creates pinning vulnerability.
⚠️Deep $50 put print + elevated deep-put IV signals tail-risk demand.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (7 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (1d): ±$6.15 (3.6%)
  • 2026-05-01 (8d): ±$15.15 (8.8%)
  • 2026-05-08 (15d): ±$10.83 (6.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV elevated; 8–15d IV remains high, showing event premium priced beyond announcement.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush likely large for near-term strikes, moderate further out.

Skew: Steep skew: elevated IV on deep puts and pronounced call IV around 185–195 (pinning footprint).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves often meet or exceed model; realized moves can outstrip implied on misses.

Directional bias: No clear directional bias; low beat rate raises two-sided surprise risk with tail downside hedging evident.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $166.32/$178.62; 1w $157.32/$187.62
2Max pain pins: $150 (2026-04-24); $150 (2026-05-01); $145 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated call OI and large prints at $185–195 expiries.

Pinning pressure around $185–195 into/through earnings.

Significant odd-lot $50 put volume and elevated deep-put IV.

Tail downside hedging or speculative tail demand; signals higher kurtosis risk.

Strategies

Front-week call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-01 $177.50 call / buy 2026-06-18 $182.00 call
Debit: $9.49-$11.61
Max loss: $11.61
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close or roll after print; trim if spot >182 or IV collapses early.
Harvest rich front-week IV while retaining upside with limited defined loss.
Outperforms: Sell May 1 177.5 call, buy Jun 18 182 call to collect decay/crush and keep upside exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Wide iron condor
Sell 2026-05-01 $165.00/$160.00 put wing and $182.50/$192.50 call wing
Credit: $3.21-$3.92
Max loss: $6.08
Max gain: $3.92
BE: 161.08 / 186.42
Trigger: Buy wings if price runs into a wing; consider rolling if delta path worsens.
Collect rich premium while capping two-sided tail risk around pin band.
Outperforms: Sell 165/160 put wing and 182.5/192.5 call wing to exploit elevated IV and limit loss.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle (high premium)
Sell 2026-05-01 $165.00 put + sell $182.50 call
Credit: $7.36-$8.99
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $8.99
BE: 156.01 / 191.49
Trigger: Keep tight hedges or close pre-earnings; cut losses quickly on large moves.
Max premium but unlimited upside risk given concentrated call OI near 185–195.
Outperforms: Sell May 1 165 put and 182.5 call to monetize event IV.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV regime → large option price moves
!Spot ~12% below call OI cluster increases upside pinning vulnerability
!Mixed flow: call pinning vs deep-put tail hedges creates two-sided gamma risk
!Low historical beat rate (25%) elevates surprise risk

What to Watch

?IV change next 48h and front-week skew
?Price behavior around $175–185 (resistance/pin band)
?Follow-through prints on 185–195 calls and $50 puts
?SPX 0DTE dealer gamma (GEX) and front-week put/call skew shifts
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.