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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $159.09EOD only
Max Pain
$155.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.72
7.4% from close
Price Gap
-4.09
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
49
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.88
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

High-IV, pinning regime into upcoming MSTR prints. Best strategy: premium-selling iron-condor across the 4/17/24 expirations or a bespoke debit straddle if you want pure earnings-vol exposure. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap beyond the EM rails ($130.36 - $144.46 in 2d) that defeats dealer pinning and triggers sharp directional re-price.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict (mixed); +1 pinning (GEX +$155.6M concentrated near spot); -1 spot 5.7% above MP; +0.5 VIX 18.4
Most important: Dealer GEX concentration at the $135/$140/$142 strikes (pin magnets) — if price moves away from these levels into runways, positioning breaks and movement can accelerate.
📌GEX concentrations: +$27.5M at $135, +$23.2M at $142, +$21.1M at $140 — these create strong pinning forces near current price.
⚠️Historical EPS surprises are volatile (one very large miss and one very large beat in recent quarters) — don't rely on a stable direction.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Gamma flip near $100; below this point dealers flip to amplifying moves (put OI concentration 26,029 ~27.2% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (TBD) / 2026-05-05 (TBD) (16 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (3d): : : $130.36 - $144.46 () (±$7.05, 5.1%)
  • 2026-04-24 (10d): ±$11.67 ($125.74 - $149.09) (8.5%)
  • 2026-05-01 (17d): ±$15.55 ($121.86 - $152.96) (11.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated ATM IV is ~61.5% (2026-04-17) and stays in the low-60s through 4/24 (61.4%) and 5/01 (64.0%) — elevated relative to equities and consistent with earnings sensitivity.

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts post-event from near-term ATM (61.5% post-event baseline), with longer-dated vols remaining higher (mid-60s+).

Skew: Put-heavy structural interest at deep OTM strikes (100/90/75) but near-term skew is relatively balanced; short-dated puts/calls around spot are both rich given pinning.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 recent reported quarters showed EPS > estimate)

Avg move vs expected: Available sample small; past prints show large dispersion (e.g., +3.82 and -148.91 surprises), so realized moves can be idiosyncratic and infrequent.

Directional bias: Mixed; historical outcomes include both large gap-ups and steep misses — limited positive bias.

Key Levels

1$135.00
2$142.00
3$130.36 - $144.46 (2d EM guardrails)

Flow Highlights

Net premium at $130.00: Call premium $8,560,870 vs Put $3,220,806 -> Net $5,340,064

Significant call-centric premium at $130 suggests bullish/put-sell or call-buy positioning concentrated around the $130 strike; supports dealer pinning pressure near $130-$135 when combined with GEX.

Unusual concentrated short-dated put flow: 2026-04-17 $137.00 / $139.00 puts with Vol/OI spikes

Retail or hedged institutional protective put buying close to spot — raises probability of near-term pinning and asymmetric crash protection demand.

Strategies

Short iron-condor (earnings premium sell)
4/17 expiration: Sell 130 put / Buy 125 put; Sell 142 call / Buy 145 call (all strikes available)
Credit: $2.00-$2.30
Max loss: $2.89
Max gain: $2.15
BE: 127.11 / 144.15
Trigger: Enter 2-3 days before earnings if IV remains at or above current 61.5% and market direction is neutral/bullish.
High GEX (+$155.6M) concentrated at $135/$140/$142 creates pinning; selling premium captures elevated IV with reasonable odds that price remains between the pins.
Outperforms: Stock stays inside the 2d EM guardrails ($130.36 - $144.46) and dealer pinning holds.
Underperforms: Post-earnings gap exceeds EM rails (>~5.1%) or sudden guidance triggers directional gap.
Long straddle (directional/IV play)
Buy 137 straddle 4/17 (buy 137 call + buy 137 put)
Debit: $6.50-$7.50
Max loss: $7.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approx 129.50 / 144.50 (strike ± premium)
Trigger: Enter 1 day before earnings if IV has not ripped higher and you're comfortable paying ~7 for straddle exposure.
High realized dispersion historically and elevated short-term IV make a straddle a straightforward play for outsized moves; unusual short-dated put flow near 137/139 increases chances of pin/noise — size accordingly.
Outperforms: Actual move > EM (move >~5.1% in 2d) or a large gap occurs on guidance/market shock.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $135-$142 and IV collapses post-print, resulting in insufficient underlying move to cover premium.
Bull call spread (asymmetric upside, lower theta bleed)
4/24 expiration: Buy 142 call / Sell 150 call
Debit: $1.80-$2.40
Max loss: $2.40
Max gain: $6.60
BE: $144.00
Trigger: Enter after earnings if directional news is positive and IV for 4/24 collapses less than expected (or enter into IV if you anticipate sticky vol).
Allows asymmetric upside with limited debit, uses available strikes (142, 150) and capitalizes on call demand around 140-142. Cheap way to express bullish thesis vs outright calls given high IV.
Outperforms: Post-earnings continuation higher toward the $150 area with limited IV crush into the 4/24 expiry.
Underperforms: Earnings are neutral and price sits under $144; also poor if IV collapses and underlying fails to follow through.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM (2d) is ±$7.05 (5.1%); guidance could produce gaps materially larger than EM.
!IV crush: Short-dated IV is elevated (~61.5% ATM). Selling premium captures this but exposes you to large directional gaps; long straddles require moves > premium after crush.
!Liquidity: Chain is liquid at key strikes (notably 135/140/142). Spreads are tight at these strikes but wider away from spot; use limit orders.
!Sizing: Given mixed flow and concentrated GEX, keep position sizes conservative — recommended max single-trade delta exposure <5-7% of notional account into event.
!Model risk: Max pain trend is declining and MP levels vary across expirations; MP alone isn't a trade guarantee with mixed flow.

What to Watch

?Price reaction around $135 and $142 (GEX pin magnets)
?IV trajectory into 4/17 and 4/24 (ATM IV 61.5% -> 61.4%)
?Unusual short-dated put flow at $137/$139 (could indicate protective buying or directional hedges)
?Net premium and OI concentration at $130 call cluster (net premium flow positive at $130)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.