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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $164.85EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.73
2.9% from close
Price Gap
+5.15
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
35
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.90
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR earnings 69d out. High IV, call-heavy flow, but 20% beat rate. Spot below $168 max pain. Confidence 7.5/10.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -0.5 spot 4.5% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Low beat rate and call OI wall $170-$200 key risks.
📉Low beat rate: only 20% historically.
📈Heavy call flow in 5/29 $165C suggests bullish skew.
⚠️Call wall $170-$200 may limit upside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (69 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$9.92 (6.2%)
  • 2026-06-05 (14d): ±$14.70 (9.2%)
  • 2026-06-12 (21d): ±$18.50 (11.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 7d 6.2% to 21d 11.6%.

Crush estimate: No immediate crush; earnings 69d away.

Skew: Call OI wall suggests upside skew.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 20% beat rate implies frequent misses.

Directional bias: Bearish given low beat rate.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $149.96/$169.81
2Max pain pins: $168 (2026-05-22); $170 (2026-05-29); $178 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call buying in 5/29 $165C (vol/oi 11.3).

Near-term bullish bet.

Large volume on 5/22 OTM calls near 0.01 suggests closing.

Profit-taking or position adjustment.

Strategies

Bearish Put Calendar
Sell 2026-05-29 $160.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $160.00 put
Debit: $9.61-$11.74
Max loss: $11.74
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor support $145; adjust if breach.
Better suited for low beat rate and bearish bias; defined risk, captures premium decay.
Outperforms: Sell near-term put, buy later put to profit from downward drift and term structure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-05-29 $148.00 put + sell $170.00 call
Credit: $2.56-$3.12
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $3.12
BE: 144.88 / 173.12
Trigger: Set stop-loss; close if spot nears strikes.
High IV and upward term structure favor premium selling, but unlimited risk.
Outperforms: Sell OTM put and call to collect premium; benefits from time decay and range-bound price.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Low historical beat rate (20%).
!Call OI wall $170-$200 could cap upside.
!Spot below max pain $168; potential pin risk.

What to Watch

?Bitcoin price action (MSTR correlation).
?5/29 $165C volume for bullish confirmation.
?Support $145.19 and resistance $167.5/$170.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.