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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $166.52EOD only
Max Pain
$140.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$14.83
8.9% from close
Price Gap
-26.52
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.87
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Bullish flow-driven pinning into earnings with elevated IV; directional outcome uncertain given low historical beat rate.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 17.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Bullish option flow + concentrated Apr24 puts (160–170) likely create pinning near $160–$165, dominating near-term price into expiry.
📌Pinning signal: heavy Apr24 puts 160–170 point to $160–$165 max-pain zone.
⚠️Front-month IV elevated (~76–100%) — expect sharp IV crush after earnings.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (10 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (4d): ±$12.62 (7.4%)
  • 2026-05-01 (11d): ±$18.83 (11.0%)
  • 2026-05-08 (18d): ±$24.15 (14.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV very elevated (~76–100%), front-month > back-month, steep term premium into Apr24/May01.

Crush estimate: Large crush expected post-report (front-month IV down materially).

Skew: Heavy skew: elevated put IV concentrated around 160–170 and higher call IV at 200+ strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Expected moves 7–14% (±$12–$24); historical beat rate 25% (1/4).

Directional bias: No persistent bias historically; current flow imparts short-term bullish tilt but pinning pressure centers near the 160s.

Key Levels

1Max pain pins: $145 (2026-04-24); $142 (2026-05-01); $140 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated Apr24 puts (160–170) with high vol/oi and volume.

Strong downside hedging/pinning pressure likely to anchor price near $160–$165 into Apr24 expiry.

Large May01 call prints including $200 and $220 strikes.

Significant bullish/speculative exposure into May01 that raises upside gamma if price breaks above put pin zone.

Strategies

Front‑week iron condor around 165
Sell 2026-05-01 $165.00/$162.50 put wing and $170.00/$172.50 call wing
Credit: $1.89-$2.31
Max loss: $0.19
Max gain: $2.31
BE: 162.69 / 172.31
Trigger: Close or widen wings if price breaches pin zone or IV shifts sharply.
Caps risk around the expected 160–165 pin while harvesting rich front‑month premium.
Outperforms: Collects elevated Apr/May premium with defined wings to survive pinning and post‑crush move.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
160 put calendar into earnings
Sell 2026-05-01 $160.00 put / buy 2026-05-15 $160.00 put
Debit: $3.49-$4.26
Max loss: $4.26
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll or close if underlying moves below 158–160 or if back‑month reprices badly.
Targets the concentrated 160 put cluster and exploits steep front‑month IV decay.
Outperforms: Short May01 front put, long later month to retain downside protection if sell‑off continues.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call diagonal (sell May01 170, buy May15 185)
Sell 2026-05-01 $170.00 call / buy 2026-05-15 $185.00 call
Credit: $0.83-$1.02
Max loss: $0.01
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Trim short leg into sharp rallies or after post‑earnings IV collapse.
Plays front>back term premium; benefits if front crush while back retains value.
Outperforms: Limited short exposure with long back month to capture skew and volatility term premium.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-01 $160.00 put + sell $170.00 call
Credit: $13.03-$15.92
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $15.92
BE: 144.08 / 185.92
Very high front‑month IV and concentrated pinning near 160–165 make premiums rich; sell both wings to harvest theta ahead of/through report while front‑month remains elevated.
Outperforms: Front‑month premium sale: sell May01 call and put to collect rich IV into earnings with expected post‑report crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Very high IV → big post-earnings vol crush risk
!Pinning near 160–165 can amplify short-term directional moves and liquidity risk
!Concentrated strikes create localized gamma and execution risk

What to Watch

?Front-week IV (Apr24) vs May01 dynamics
?Pin cluster: Apr24 puts 160–170 (watch $160–$165 pin zone)
?Large prints: May01 calls at 200 and 220
?Overall orderflow balance into close
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.