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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $164.85EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.73
2.9% from close
Price Gap
+5.15
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
35
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.90
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Pre-earnings setup 70 days out. Elevated IV, max pain at $170, heavy call activity near $170-$177.5, but low historical beat rate (20%) and net negative premium suggest mixed sentiment. Dealer pinning likely around $170.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.0% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Low beat rate (20%) and large call OI at $170-$180 may cap upside; watch for Bitcoin catalyst.
📈Call buying concentrated at $170-$177.5 for 5/29; bullish sentiment but large OI may cap upside.
⚠️Low beat rate (20%) and net negative premium (-$60M) warn of downside risk; tails hedged with deep OTM puts.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (70 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (1d): ±$4.73 (2.9%)
  • 2026-05-29 (8d): ±$11.30 (6.9%)
  • 2026-06-05 (15d): ±$16.40 (9.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango: near-term ATM IV ~48-55%, back-month higher (57-60%), with 108% on deep OTM 6/5 $95 put indicating tail risk premium.

Crush estimate: Minimal near term; earnings 70 days out, no immediate crush expectation.

Skew: Put skew elevated on OTM puts (e.g., $146 put IV 60%), call skew moderate; tail risk priced.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Directional bias: Bearish bias from low beat rate (20%) and one of five quarters positive.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $160.12/$169.58; 1w $153.55/$176.15
2Max pain pins: $170 (2026-05-22); $172 (2026-05-29); $180 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call volume: 42k contracts at $177.5C and 47k at $170C for 5/29, with OI of 3k and 5k respectively.

Bullish positioning targeting $170-$180, likely dealer hedging adds upward pressure.

Unusual put buying: 2.2k contracts at $146P for 5/29 (18.5x OI), plus 11.5k at $162.5P for 5/22.

Bearish hedging or downside speculation, especially below $150.

Deep OTM put: 3.7k contracts at $95P for 6/5 (IV 108%), and $310P for 6/18 (ITM put).

Tail risk hedge and put wall at $100-$100 support; extreme skew priced.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-06-05 $152.50 put + sell $180.00 call
Credit: $6.01-$7.34
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $7.34
BE: 145.16 / 187.34
Trigger: Monitor BTC price and adjust strikes if support/resistance breached. Close at 50% max gain or before earnings if IV collapses.
Elevated IV and low beat rate favor range-bound move. Sell call near $180 and put near $152.5 to capture premium with high probability.
Outperforms: Sells OTM call and put to profit from low volatility and range-bound price action. Maximum gain is credit received; risk is unlimited on move beyond strikes.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-06-05 $152.50/$146.00 put wing and $180.00/$190.00 call wing
Credit: $2.78-$3.40
Max loss: $6.60
Max gain: $3.40
BE: 149.10 / 183.40
Trigger: Exit if spot approaches short strikes. Close at 50% gain or adjust delta-neutral. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Volume below 5.
Defined risk alternative to strangle. Liquidity slightly lower but still viable. Caps risk while collecting premium.
Outperforms: Sell put spread and call spread to collect premium with defined max loss. Profit if underlying stays between short strikes.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Elevated IV (48-60%) with tail risk premium; VIX 17 moderate but MSTR IV high.
!Max pain at $170 for 5/22 and 5/29; dealer pinning risk if spot stays near.
!Low historical beat rate (20%) increases miss risk; net negative premium (-$60M) suggests bearish flow.

What to Watch

?BTC price action (MSTR correlation ~0.8).
?IV term structure and near-term IV changes as earnings approach.
?OI concentration at $170-$180 call wall and $100 put floor.
?Gamma flip potential if spot breaks $160 support or $180 resistance.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.