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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $170.81EOD only
Max Pain
$145.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.62
7.4% from close
Price Gap
-25.81
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
19
Low premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 20, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High IV; market pricing for a large move but historical beat rate low (25%). Flow favors downside pinning into ~$142–165 window with call walls higher.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 12.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20; override: blend of pinning flow and high spot distance; mixed signals
Most important: IV elevated with concentrated put prints around 160–170 and structural call OI 175–200 indicating asymmetric payoffs
⚠️Front-dated IV mid-70s–80s; expect sizable post-event crush
🔻Concentrated put prints around 160–170 suggest downside pinning into short-dated expiries
🧱Call OI wall 175–200 likely to act as structural resistance

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (9 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (3d): ±$10.75 (6.6%)
  • 2026-05-01 (10d): ±$17.15 (10.5%)
  • 2026-05-08 (17d): ±$22.62 (13.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Very steep near-dated IV (mid-70s–80s) decaying into summer; outsized IV on deep OTM longer-dated puts

Crush estimate: Large crush likely post-earnings (IV could drop 30–50% absolute on front-dated strikes)

Skew: Put-heavy skew into 160–170 strikes; some elevated calls into 175–190 (call wall)

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical realized moves exceeded expected only 25% of quarters; realized surprise skewed larger moves when beats occur

Directional bias: Slight downside bias given present put flow and spot above MP

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $153.22/$174.72; 1w $146.82/$181.12
2Max pain pins: $146 (2026-04-24); $145 (2026-05-01); $142 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Large retail/flow prints in 4/24 160–170 puts and 5/1 142 put

Pinning pressure into 160–170 expiries and tail protection into 142

Significant call OI wall 175–200

Upside resistance; large sellers/carry may cap rallies near that band

Strategies

Cost-efficient wide strangle
Buy 2026-05-01 $157.50 put + buy $175.00 call
Debit: $9.25-$11.30
Max loss: $11.30
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 146.20 / 186.30
Trigger: Enter near lower end of range, trim or roll OTM put if spot pins mid-160s, close into IV crush or >2× move.
Lower cost vs straddle yet keeps convexity to both tails; aligns with downside flow.
Outperforms: Wider strikes reduce premium bleed and tolerate pinning near 160–170 while profiting on a large move.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Front-dated long straddle
Buy 2026-05-01 $165.00 put + buy $165.00 call
Debit: $15.43-$18.86
Max loss: $18.86
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 146.14 / 183.86
Trigger: Buy near lower end of entry range, plan exits pre-crush or after decisive move; size small for IV risk.
Max vega play to capture a surprise; simpler payoff if move magnitude uncertain.
Outperforms: Full vega exposure benefits from large realized move; expensive with big expected IV crush.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV and large net negative premium -> large losses if gamma blows through pins
!Mixed flow: pinning can fail leading to sharp directional move vs positions
!Near-term event risk: both vega and theta are meaningful

What to Watch

?4/24 front-dated put activity and bid/ask shifts
?spot convergence toward max pain 142–165 band
?IV term-structure changes pre- and post-earnings
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.