thetaOwl
HomeOptionsMSTRReports

MSTR

Strategy IncClose $165.81EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.35
4.4% from close
Price Gap
+4.19
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
33
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.90
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

MSTR earnings 71 days out; low beat rate (20%), high IV, capped by call wall at $180-$200.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 VIX 17
Most important: Deep OTM puts signal hedging; max pain $170 may pin short-term.
⚠️Deep OTM puts IV >200%: tail risk hedge or speculation?
🔥Call OI wall $180-$200: strong resistance.
📊20% historical beat rate: tendency to disappoint.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (71 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (2d): ±$7.35 (4.4%)
  • 2026-05-29 (9d): ±$12.83 (7.7%)
  • 2026-06-05 (16d): ±$18.00 (10.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango, front IV ~63%, back higher; expected moves 4.4% (2d) to 10.9% (16d).

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush ~30-40% historically.

Skew: Deep OTM puts (June 18, strikes $30-$46) show IV >200%, tail risk pricing.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move ~120% of implied but low beat rate suggests downside.

Directional bias: Bearish bias given 20% beat rate; short-term pinned by max pain.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $158.46/$173.16; 1w $152.98/$178.63
2Max pain pins: $170 (2026-05-22); $175 (2026-05-29); $180 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call buying at $177.5, $172.5, $180 for May 29 (vol/OI >8).

Bullish positioning near expiry, possibly hedging or speculating.

Deep OTM put buying at $30-$46 for June 18 (IV >200%).

Tail hedge or lottery; not directional conviction.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-05-29 $160.00 put + sell $170.00 call
Credit: $7.65-$9.35
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $9.35
BE: 150.65 / 179.35
Trigger: Monitor BTC correlation; set stop on put if spot breaks $147.81; roll if gamma rises.
High IV and contango favor premium sale; low beat rate and bearish flow support bearish skew.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call to capture time decay and IV crush, positioning for limited move.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Put Calendar
Sell 2026-05-29 $165.00 put / buy 2026-07-17 $165.00 put
Debit: $9.81-$11.99
Max loss: $11.99
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if spot breaches $147.81; adjust if skew flattens.
Contango and bearish flow make this attractive; front put decays faster than back put.
Outperforms: Sells near-term put, buys longer-dated put to profit from decay timing and eventual move.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV decay risk holding long premium into earnings.
!Gamma pinning near $170 may cap moves.
!Low beat rate suggests downside risk.
!Negative net premium (-$68M) indicates bearish flow.

What to Watch

?$170 max pain pin on 5/22 expiry.
?$180-$200 call OI wall as resistance.
?Spot support at $147.81.
?BTC correlation impact.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.