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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $164.63EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.28
5.6% from close
Price Gap
+5.37
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.90
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

MSTR earnings Jul30, 76d out. IV elevated, call flow bullish near-term, but low beat rate (20%) raises caution.

Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -0.5 spot 4.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Low historical beat rate vs. bullish call flow creates tension; near-term options show aggressive call buying.
📈Heavy call flow in May22 expirations suggests short-term bullish momentum.
⚠️Low beat rate historically; recent bullish flow may be disconnected from earnings.
🔑Call OI wall at $188-200 resistance; spot above MP $170 supports.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-30 (76 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (7d): ±$12.38 (7.0%)
  • 2026-05-29 (14d): ±$17.47 (9.8%)
  • 2026-06-05 (21d): ±$22.08 (12.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping from 7d to 21d options; elevated IV (~60%) near-term.

Crush estimate: Expected significant crush post-earnings, but event far out; no precise data.

Skew: Put skew elevated at low strikes; heavy call OI at $188-200.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 20% (1/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; implied moves large (±7-12% weekly).

Directional bias: Historical results mixed; only 1/5 beat.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $165.04/$189.79
2Max pain pins: $170 (2026-05-15); $175 (2026-05-22); $175 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

Massive call volume on May22 $187.5, $182.5, $180, $190 strikes, vol/OI up to 61x.

Aggressive near-term bullish positioning, likely speculative ahead of BTC move.

Put activity low; put/call OI ratio 0.90 but volume ratio 0.41 indicates call dominance.

Skewed heavily toward calls, suggesting bullish sentiment dominates.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-22 $170.00/$167.50 put wing and $187.50/$192.50 call wing
Credit: $1.45-$1.78
Max loss: $3.22
Max gain: $1.78
BE: 168.22 / 189.28
Trigger: Manage if spot breaches $170 or $185; roll or close near expiry.
Low beat rate and high IV reward non-directional theta decay; support/resistance at $170/$185 provide range.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call wings to profit from time decay and volatility crush within a defined range.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $187.50 call / buy 2026-06-18 $182.00 call
Debit: $9.07-$11.08
Max loss: $11.08
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close if spot falls below $170 invalidation; monitor IV changes.
Upward sloping IV term structure favors selling near-term high IV and buying later low IV, but low beat rate adds risk.
Outperforms: Sells a near-term call and buys a later-dated call to profit from time decay and volatility spread.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Low historical beat rate (20%)
!High IV may lead to large premium decay
!Spot near resistance $180-$188 call wall
!Earnings 76d away; near-term flow not necessarily reflecting earnings

What to Watch

?BTC price action as primary driver
?Key level $180 break; targets $185-$188
?Put floor at $170/$159.94; failure tests support
?Pre-announcements ahead of Jul30
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.