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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $136.08EOD only
Max Pain
$152.50
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.60
7.0% from close
Price Gap
+16.42
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
61
High premium
P/C OI
0.93
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 2, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

4.5/10. Best strategy is defined-risk premium selling sized for a pin (sell into call concentration or use put-credit spreads positioned to survive earnings). Key risk: guidance/earnings surprise that breaks dealer pinning and overwhelms support (gap beyond the 1-week EM $155.71 or below $131 support).

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 9.6% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18; override: No new structural information changes the base score; edits align strategies with expirations and call-flow.
Most important: Monitor front-cycle call concentration around $135–$145 and dealer GEX +$146.1M — they create pinning pressure; a directional surprise that overwhelms that positioning will amplify moves.
📅Earnings date explicit: 2026-04-30 (15d) — front-week expirations (2026-04-24, 2026-05-01) will price event risk.
📌GEX concentrations: +$32.3M at $142.00 and +$17.7M at $140.00 — expect pinning forces around those strikes.
🔁Unusual activity: massive executed call premium at $140 and notable single-contract flows at $145 and $133 — suggests directional positioning skewed to upside.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (15 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (2d): ±$6.67 (4.7%)
  • 2026-04-24 (9d): ±$12.17 (8.5%)
  • 2026-05-01 (16d): ±$15.90 (11.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week ATM IV is ~63–64% (2026-04-17: 64.1%, 2026-04-24: 63.6%, 2026-05-01: 63.9%) while 30–90d tenors sit ~67–69% and longer-dated tenors rise to ~72–74%. Note: 2026-04-24 expiration occurs BEFORE the 2026-04-30 earnings; the closest post-event tenor is 2026-05-01. Front-tenor pricing is therefore split across pre-event and post-event expirations.

Crush estimate: Moderate. Since 2026-04-24 expires before the earnings, expect limited post-release crush for that expiration. Contracts that span the event (2026-05-01 and later) should see meaningful IV compression after the 2026-04-30 release — expect mid-teens IV point contraction on those post-event front tenors relative to pre-release.

Skew: Downside long-dated puts are expensive relative to near-term (put floor $75–$100 structural buys), but near-term skew is call-heavy around $135–$145 (significant call OI + flow).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historically MSTR has produced outsized realized moves on quarterlies (large positive and negative surprises). Beat rate is low at 25% (1/4), and prior surprises have produced big gaps (e.g., 2025-12-31 actual EPS far below estimate).

Directional bias: No persistent bias — history shows large two-way volatility with sporadic huge misses; with low beat rate the safe prior is neutral-to-bearish around guidance risk.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $136.86/$150.21; 1w $131.36/$155.71
2Max pain pins: $131 (2026-04-17); $135 (2026-04-24); $130 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Large concentrated call premium at near-spot strikes (net premium flow shows heavy call buying at $140, $133, $145, $132, $139, $150).

Speculative/positioning-driven upside exposure is concentrated around $132–$150 which combined with positive GEX creates a pinning magnet near $140–$142.

Net premium is -$86.0M bearish while P/C volume is 0.50 and P/C OI 0.83.

Bigger premium sold into puts historically, but current executed flow is call-heavy in absolute dollars — suggests short-dated call demand (speculation or hedged structures) against longer-dated protective puts.

Strategies

Defined-risk post-event put spread
Sell 2026-05-01 $135.00/$121.00 put spread
Credit: $2.52-$3.07
Max loss: $10.93
Max gain: $3.07
BE: $131.93
Trigger: Close before earnings/into front-cycle IV collapse or tighten/roll if price approaches the short strike.
Best risk-adjusted way to harvest elevated mid-term premium while avoiding holding a short position through earnings expiry (spread set to 2026-05-01).
Outperforms: Collects elevated premium with a capped downside using a 2026-05-01 put credit (short 135 / long 125) sized to survive a single-step adverse move.
Underperforms: Break below support threatens short-put strike.
Call diagonal selling near the pin
Sell 2026-04-24 $155.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $192.00 call
Debit: $1.41-$1.73
Max loss: $1.73
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close/roll the short leg before or immediately after earnings if the short is threatened; use long call to offset large upward moves.
Matches concentrated near-term call flow at $140–$145 by shorting an in-band near-term call (142) and buying longer-dated upside.
Outperforms: Sells near-term call exposure (2026-04-24 142 short) and buys a 2026-06-18 long call to keep upside optionality while collecting front-premium.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Front-cycle iron condor across EM rails
Sell 2026-04-24 $132.00/$123.00 put wing and $160.00/$175.00 call wing
Credit: $1.95-$2.38
Max loss: $12.62
Max gain: $2.38
BE: 129.62 / 162.38
Trigger: Tighten/hedge or close into any earnings gap beyond guardrails; prioritize reducing short-call exposure if price rallies near $150.
Targets the $131–$156 EM band with defined wings to collect premium while capping tail risk.
Outperforms: Sell an iron condor on 2026-04-24 with short strikes inside the 1-week EM guardrails and wings sized to weather intraday noise.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: High — earnings or guidance shock can gap price beyond EM bounds; downside gap below deterministic support $131.00/$127.64 is the largest single failure mode.
!IV crush impact: Moderate — front IV in the mid-60s should compress materially after release for expirations that straddle the event (2026-05-01 and later), penalizing long-vol positions and benefiting short premium, but long-dated protection will retain value.
!Liquidity: Good in front and select mid strikes (high OI at $135, $140, $142, $150); tails and some long-dated strikes show thinner markets — watch bid/ask on wings and calendars.
!Sizing: Given positive GEX (+$146.1M) and heavy call positioning, keep position sizes conservative; short premium strategies need contingency capital for pin-busting gaps.

What to Watch

?Flow into $140–$145 calls (real-time volume vs OI) — sustained call buying increases upside pin pressure but also short-gamma fragility.
?IV slope changes in the nearest two expirations: if front IV refuses to cheapen into earnings or if post-event tenors re-price higher, short premium is riskier.
?Price trajectory relative to GEX concentrations: moves toward $140–$142 increase pinning; moves away remove dealer support and accelerate gamma moves.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.