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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $120.44EOD only
Max Pain
$136.00
Next expiry Jun 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$12.75
10.6% from close
Price Gap
+15.56
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
94
High premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 5, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 5, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 22, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 5, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

High IV, bullish call-heavy flow and positive GEX leading into 2026-04-30 earnings; market expects a large move but flow/GEX favor pinning in the ~170–190 zone into the print.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 20.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19; override: Base + flow/GEX alignment into 2026-04-30 event
Most important: Concentrated call buying and positive GEX imply pinning risk into the 4/30 expiry rather than a large directional gap down.
📈Heavy call prints (182.5–185) concentrate gamma near mid-180s into 4/30 — pinning likely
⚠️IV in the 70s–80s for 4/30 implies large crush risk after earnings
🧭Beat rate ~25% (1/4) — very small sample, so historical inference is low-confidence

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (8 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (2d): ±$9.75 (5.4%)
  • 2026-05-01 (9d): ±$18.08 (10.1%)
  • 2026-05-08 (16d): ±$24.85 (13.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV (expiring 4/30) >> front-month; very elevated (70s–80s) into 4/30 and drops after

Crush estimate: Material IV crush expected post-release (large % drop from 70s–80s)

Skew: Call-skewed activity: heavy calls around 182.5–185–187.5 and notable put interest 170–175.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Available sample shows realized moves often below option-implied; options priced for a larger move

Directional bias: Beat rate ~25% (1/4) historically — very small sample, so treat directional inference as low-confidence.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $169.61/$189.11; 1w $161.29/$197.44
2Max pain pins: $149 (2026-04-24); $145 (2026-05-01); $145 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Concentrated heavy call prints 182.5–185–187.5 on 4/28–4/29 ahead of 4/30

Dealer hedging from these calls increases pinning pressure near mid-180s into expiry

Net premium inflow with P/C vol <1 and P/C OI ~0.82 into 4/30

Skew toward calls with bullish premium flow and positive GEX impact.

Strategies

Iron condor (May 1 wings)
Sell 2026-05-01 $172.50/$167.50 put wing and $192.50/$195.00 call wing
Credit: $2.07-$2.53
Max loss: $2.47
Max gain: $2.53
BE: 169.97 / 195.03
Trigger: Manage into 4/30; tighten or buy back if stock trends to a wing or flow shifts; close into crush.
Collect rich front-week call premium while defined wings limit tail risk amid pinning into 170–190.
Outperforms: Sell front-week wings to harvest elevated IV and benefit from expected post-print crush and compressed moves from positive GEX.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call diagonal (sell May, buy Jun)
Sell 2026-05-01 $192.50 call / buy 2026-06-18 $205.00 call
Debit: $7.60-$9.29
Max loss: $9.29
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll or close short leg into expiry if GEX/flow changes; trim long if IV collapses post-earnings.
Front-week IV >> back-month and concentrated call flow favors selling near-term calls while retaining longer upside exposure.
Outperforms: Short near-term calls capture rich theta; long back-month caps assignment risk and preserves upside with lower vega decay per dollar.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Bull call spread (May 1 175/190)
Buy 2026-05-01 $175.00/$190.00 call spread
Debit: $5.31-$6.49
Max loss: $6.49
Max gain: $8.51
BE: $181.49
Trigger: Scale or take profits if price approaches strikes pre-print; cut if clear downside invalidation.
Defined debit upside that aligns with call-heavy pinning band without naked gamma or open-ended vega risk.
Outperforms: Buys modest upside within expected pin range while limiting max loss versus naked calls.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-01 $172.50 put + sell $190.00 call
Credit: $9.72-$11.88
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $11.88
BE: 160.62 / 201.88
Options price a larger move than historically realized; concentrated call flow pins near 170–190 into expiry, allowing premium capture.
Outperforms: Sell a 5/1 strangle around 170 put / 190 call to collect elevated IV, expecting pinning and smaller realized move vs priced move.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Very high IV and event risk; large post-earnings IV crush possible
!Pinning/gamma risk compresses moves near expiry, increasing short-gamma exposure
!Stock ~20% above pain increases tail risk on a negative surprise despite pinning flows

What to Watch

?Flow and OI shifts in front-week (4/30) strikes 170–190
?Unusual prints on 4/29–4/30 expiries at 182.5–185–187.5 and changes at 170–175
?Pre-earnings stock drift vs concentrated GEX and broader market direction
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.