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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $151.64EOD only
Max Pain
$165.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.72
3.1% from close
Price Gap
+13.36
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
50
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.93
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 28, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 28, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 13, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

MSTR is in a high-vol, pinning regime with dealers long gamma (GEX +$111.5M) and large call OI concentrated into the $135-$142 area. Best play for most traders is a targeted premium sale (iron/condor) sized to withstand a 1x EM gap — dealer pinning and heavy call OI increase the chance of the stock being held inside the $130-$140 band. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap larger than the EM (±$15.82 to the 5/01 expiration) that overwhelms dealer pinning and causes rapid repricing.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +1 pinning/GEX +$111.5M; -1 GEX/flow contradictions; +0.5 spot 1.8% above MP; +0.5 VIX 19.1
Most important: Watch dealer pin magnets at $135 and $140-$142 (GEX concentration) and IV trajectory into the 5/01 cycle — they govern where shares may pin.
📌Max pain near-term cluster: $130 (4/17) and $135 (4/24) — both within a few percent of spot and supported by heavy call OI.
⚠️Gamma flip ~100 is far below spot; a crash through $100 would remove dealer pinning and accelerate downside — low probability in next two weeks but high-impact.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Gamma flip ~100 — below this dealers amplify moves; current spot (132.36) is well above flip so dealer pinning active in near-term strikes.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (TBD) (17 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-01 (18d): 7.82 (12.0%) [$116.54 - $148.19]
  • 2026-04-24 (11d): 0.71 (8.8%) [$120.71 - $144.01]
  • 2026-04-17 (4d): .40 (5.6%) [$124.96 - $139.76]

IV Setup

Term structure: Elevated across short and mid tenors: ATM IV 59.9% (4d), 60.9% (11d), 65.8% (18d). Front-week is high and the 18d tenor (covers reported earnings window) sits at 65.8% — a modest backwardation/kink toward the earnings tenor.

Crush estimate: ~5-8 vol pts (ATM IV from 65.8% at 18d likely re-prices toward low-60s post-release absent a major surprise)

Skew: Puts are relatively richer farther down (notably heavy concentrated puts at $100/$90) while near-spot call OI is large (135/140/142) — skew favors call-side pinning pressure.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 recent quarters beat)

Avg move vs expected: Past reported moves have been inconsistent — large surprise quarters exist (both outsized beat and large misses), giving asymmetric risk around guidance.

Directional bias: Mixed (no clean multi-quarter directional bias)

Key Levels

1$130.00 (Max Pain 2026-04-17)
2$135.00 (Max Pain 2026-04-24; heavy call OI / GEX +$24.5M at 135)
3$142.00 (Call OI wall / GEX +$13.3M at 142)

Flow Highlights

Large OI and GEX concentration at $135 call (45,499 OI; +$24.5M GEX concentration, +2.0% from spot).

Dealer hedging pressure near $135 increases pin risk toward that strike into expirations around 4/24–5/01.

Significant call OI cluster at $140-$142 (combined OI ~66k) and GEX concentrations at $140 ($12.4M) and $142 ($13.3M).

Secondary pin/resistance band above spot — if momentum hits here dealers will be forced to hedge, which can dampen upside or create intraday resistance.

Put OI concentration at $100 (27,194 OI) and notable put floor $75-$100.

Long-dated protection and large put stacks below $100 are structural tail protection but are outside the next-2-week range; they increase convexity if a large sell-off breaches $100.

Strategies

Short iron condor (earnings-width, income)
Sell 135/140 call spread and sell 125/120 put spread, 2026-05-01 expiration (collect premium between wings)
Credit: $2.00-$3.00
Max loss: $7.00
Max gain: $3.00
BE: Upside breakeven ~138.00; Downside breakeven ~122.00
Trigger: Enter 4-8 days before earnings if IV remains >60% and structure is quoting the above credit
Dealer pinning (GEX +$111.5M) and heavy call OI around 135–142 increase the chance shares remain rangebound; collectors earn premium while dealers pin.
Outperforms: Stock stays inside the $122-$138 band (inside estimated EM rails and pin zone).
Underperforms: Post-earnings gap > EM (~±$15.82 to 5/01) or violent directional move that breaches one wing.
Long straddle (direction/vol play)
Buy 132 straddle, 2026-05-01 expiration
Debit: $15.50-$18.00
Max loss: $18.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $116.54 / $148.19 (EM rails for 5/01)
Trigger: Enter 1-3 days before earnings if IV has not already run materially above the 65.8% ATM and you want pure event exposure.
High ATM IV (65.8% at 18d) prices substantial uncertainty; buying volatility benefits from a surprise that exceeds market expectations.
Outperforms: Actual realized move > EM (move larger than ±$15.82) and IV expansion surrounding guidance persists.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $130–$135 (dealer pinning) and IV collapses back to mid-50s post-release.
Directional call spread (bull skewed with defined risk)
Buy 135/142 call spread, 2026-05-01 expiration
Debit: $3.50-$6.00
Max loss: $6.00
Max gain: $6.00
BE: $138.50
Trigger: Enter if flow shows sustained buy activity in OTM calls (e.g., continued heavy buying at 135/140) or ahead of suspected positive guidance.
Concentrated calls at 135/140 and dealer pinning mean a breakout above 135 could be amplified briefly; defined-risk spread controls premium spend.
Outperforms: Stock gaps up past the 135 pin and sustains momentum into 140+ (captures upside while limiting cost).
Underperforms: Stock pins at 130–135 or moves down; IV crush reduces mark of call spread despite directional move.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM to 5/01 is ±$15.82 (12.0%) — guidance or large macro news can exceed that and blow through pin levels.
!IV crush: Expect IV to reprice down ~5-8 vol pts after the event if no major surprise; long premiums (straddle) are vulnerable to crush.
!Liquidity: Near-term strikes around 135/140/142 show deep OI and decent volume; deep OTM strikes and some wings can be less liquid and widen spreads.
!Dealer pinning: High GEX (+$111.5M) increases rangebound risk but can also create fast moves if dealers must rapidly hedge vs a large gap.
!Sizing: Given elevated IV and potential for outsized gaps, keep position size smaller (scaled to withstand a full EM gap) and define max drawdown per trade.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory in the 18d tenor (ATM 65.8%) — sustained spike or drop changes optimal strategy.
?Unusual flow at $135-$142 calls and $128-$130 puts (these strikes are active and can signal positioning shifts).
?Any company pre-announcement or macro headlines ahead of 2026-04-30 that would force a reprice.
?GEX movement intraday around $135 and $140 — look for dealer-induced pinning or gamma-fueled intraday reversals.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.