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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $159.89EOD only
Max Pain
$170.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.93
6.2% from close
Price Gap
+10.11
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
36
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.89
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

MSTR is in a high-IV, pinning regime with dealers long gamma (GEX +$154.3M) and a concentrated call OI wall at $135-$140. Best strategy for most traders is a defined-risk premium sale (iron condor or short call spread) sized for the expected move—selling premium into dealer pinning. Key risk is a guidance-driven gap that exceeds the EM rails or a large directional flow that pushes spot through the $135 call OI wall, producing sharp one-sided pain despite positive GEX.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 4.5 (provided); +1 pinning GEX (+$154.3M) supports level risk management; -1 flow mixed (P/C vol 0.48) and dealer net premium negative; -0.5 spot 3.9% above max pain
Most important: Watch IV term structure into April expirations and the $135-$140 call OI wall (heavy call concentrations) — a gap through that wall will flip dealer behavior quickly.
📌Max pain near-term: $124 (04-10) then $135 in subsequent expirations — dealers are positioned to stabilize between $124 and $135.
⚠️GEX is large and positive (+$154.3M); while that creates pinning, a gap through the $135-$140 call wall can flip dynamics and accelerate moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Gamma flip ~100 based on put OI concentration (28,106 at $100, 22.4% below spot); below $100 dealers amplify moves

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (21 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (15d): : : ±$13.65 (10.6%) [$115.21 - $142.51]
  • 2026-05-01 (22d): ±$17.60 (13.7%) [$111.26 - $146.46]

IV Setup

Term structure: ATM IV is elevated across near expirations with 1d ATM 72.7%, 8d 62.6%, 15d 65.5% and 22d 69.8% — a generally high plateu with a small short-dated pop and mid-term bump into late-April/early-May.

Crush estimate: ~8-12 vol pts; expect IV to settle toward the mid-60s after the event (current avg IV 81.9% is inflated across term), with the near-dated ATM (72.7%) likely to drop back into the 60s post-release.

Skew: Call side shows concentrated OI at 135-140 and rich premium flow into $125 and $135 calls; puts are concentrated deep (notably $100) — skew favors call-side structural pressure near the $135 wall.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 recent quarters beat: only 2025-06-30 was a beat)

Avg move vs expected: Mixed; very large dispersion in realized surprises (examples: -1.05, -0.13, +3.82, -148.91) — MSTR historically posts outsized surprises both directions; no stable under/over-move pattern.

Directional bias: Tends to move sharply on large surprises; recent history shows more misses than beats

Key Levels

1$100.00 gamma flip
2$124.00 max pain (2026-04-10)
3EM guardrails (2d): $124.95-$132.78

Flow Highlights

Very large call OI at $135.00 (34,241 OI) and $140.00 (33,474 OI); near-term chain shows heavy volume at $135 call (Vol=33,591).

Dealer hedging will concentrate flows around $135-$140 — this creates a pin magnet and potential resistance zone; upside gaps that clear this wall can trigger accelerated moves.

Top premium flow shows heavy net call premium at $125.00 (Call $13,850,805 / Net $12,110,242) and $135.00 (Call $9,248,812 / Net $6,845,182).

Large directional buyer interest on the call side into these strikes — trades likely reflect directional/upside positioning or structured sales that will stabilize price near those strikes until a clear catalyst.

Strategies

Defined-risk income (short iron condor)
Sell 2026-04-24 125/130 put spread and sell 2026-04-24 135/140 call spread
Credit: $1.50-$2.20
Max loss: $3.80
Max gain: $2.20
BE: Lower condor BE ~122.50 / Upper condor BE ~137.20
Trigger: Enter 3-7 days before earnings when IV remains elevated and bid/ask spreads are tight.
High IV, positive GEX pinning and heavy call OI at 135-140 create an environment favorable to selling premium with defined risk; strikes align with OI concentration and 1-week EM.
Outperforms: Stock stays inside 2-week EM rails (~$115-$142) and especially if it pins near $125-$135 where dealer hedging supports price.
Underperforms: Guidance-driven gap exceeds EM by >50% or a large block crosses the $135-$140 call wall, causing one-sided acceleration.
Directional call spread (bull call spread)
Buy 2026-04-24 130 call and sell 2026-04-24 135 call (debit spread)
Max loss: $4.50
Max gain: $0.50
BE: $134.50
Trigger: Enter if flow shows follow-through on OTM call buying or price trades >$131 with supportive market tape.
Concentrated call OI and flow at 135 indicate asymmetric upside interest; a narrow debit spread captures upside with limited premium at risk and reduces theta/IV exposure vs outright calls.
Outperforms: Post-earnings upside gap that approaches or pokes the $135 call OI wall but does not blow through it; captures directional upside while limiting IV-crush exposure relative to a naked call.
Underperforms: Stock stays flat or gaps down; significant IV crush lowers call premiums and compresses spread value.
Long straddle (volatility play)
Buy 2026-04-24 130 straddle (130C + 130P)
Max loss: $11.75
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Downside ~118.25 / Upside ~141.75
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings only if IV has not already run up further; size small due to elevated IV and potential crush.
Straddle directly targets a large surprise; use only if you expect outsized dispersion from the recent mixed/hard-to-predict earnings history.
Outperforms: Actual move post-earnings exceeds the 15d EM (±$13.65) materially — e.g., >~15% move or a large gap on guidance.
Underperforms: Stock pins near a dealer level (e.g., $125-$135) and IV collapses, producing significant premium erosion.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM shows 15d ±$13.65 (10.6%) and 22d ±$17.60 (13.7%); guidance-driven gaps can exceed these rails — defined-risk sells mitigate this.
!IV crush: ATM IV across expirations is elevated (mid-60s to low-70s); long volatility positions will suffer material IV contraction post-release (~8-12 vol pts estimated).
!Liquidity: Option liquidity is strong at popular strikes (notably $135, $140 and $125) but spreads widen at farther OTM strikes; use strikes with demonstrated OI/volume to avoid execution slippage.
!Sizing: Given low historical beat rate (25%) and wide surprise dispersion, keep single-position risk small (1-3% of allocation) and prefer defined-risk structures unless directional conviction is high.
!Dealer flow risk: GEX +$154.3M creates pinning behavior — aggressive directional moves that clear major OI walls (135-140) can flip dealer hedges and produce accelerated gaps.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the April expirations (watch 1d and 8d term IVs: 72.7% and 62.6%).
?Unusual block/flow into $135-$140 calls and $125 calls (large premium flows already reported).
?Price action vs GEX concentration points: $129, $132, $125 and $135 are pin magnets; breaks through $135-$140 are high-impact.
?Intraday prints or guidance leaks that could push realized move beyond the 22d EM ($111.26 - $146.46).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.