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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $136.08EOD only
Max Pain
$152.50
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$9.60
7.0% from close
Price Gap
+16.42
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
61
High premium
P/C OI
0.93
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 2, 2026 close
MSTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 17, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Earnings: 2026-04-24 21:00 UTC (post-close). Option-implied one-day move ~9.8% vs consensus expected move ~6.5% — market pricing ~3.3pp (≈50%) larger risk than street.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 26.2% from MP; +1 VIX 17; override: High aligned bullish flow/GEX and pinning; spot elevated vs MP reduces downside certainty
Most important: Strong call-heavy flow and high call IV around 4/24 expiries driving pinning near $170–175.
📌Earnings 2026-04-24 21:00 UTC — implied move ~9.8% vs consensus ~6.5% (market pricing > street).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (13 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (7d): ±$14.83 (8.9%)
  • 2026-05-01 (14d): ±$20.38 (12.2%)
  • 2026-05-08 (21d): ±$25.22 (15.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week IV very elevated: 4/24 ATM IV ~85% vs very-near 4/17 ~45%; steep front-week skew with calls richer.

Crush estimate: Expected absolute front-week IV drop ~38–43 percentage points post-release (e.g., 4/24 IV 85% → ~42–47%), roughly 45–50% relative decline.

Skew: Heavy call skew and concentrated call prints at 170–200 strikes; calls notably richer than puts on 4/24.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historically moves exceed option-implied pricing; past post-earnings absolute moves averaged ~1.4× implied for last 8 events.

Directional bias: No reliable directional historical bias; current flow/pinning is the primary directional signal.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 1w $151.70/$181.35
2Max pain pins: $132 (2026-04-17); $140 (2026-04-24); $133 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Large call prints and OI concentrated at 170–175 across 4/24 and 4/17.

Market-driven pinning pressure near $170–175 into earnings.

Net premium large and put_call_volume_ratio low (~0.38).

Buy-side skewed to calls; bullish options demand dominates.

Strategies

Front‑week call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-01 $170.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $190.00 call
Debit: $0.11-$0.14
Max loss: $0.14
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close front leg into post‑earnings IV drop or roll if strong continuation
Maximizes profit from steep front‑week call IV collapse vs back month
Outperforms: Sell expensive May1 170 call, hold later 190 call to keep limited upside while collecting front IV premium; low upfront cost.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
May1 iron condor (155/138/175/205)
Sell 2026-05-01 $155.00/$138.00 put wing and $175.00/$205.00 call wing
Credit: $7.38-$9.02
Max loss: $20.98
Max gain: $9.02
BE: 145.98 / 184.02
Trigger: Trim/add protection if price breaches 170–175 or close into crush
Collects rich calls and time decay while capping tail risk around pin band
Outperforms: Use wide wings to monetize call skew and expected 38–43pp IV crush while limiting max loss.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
May1 bull call spread 160/175
Buy 2026-05-01 $160.00/$175.00 call spread
Debit: $5.67-$6.93
Max loss: $6.93
Max gain: $8.07
BE: $166.93
Trigger: Take profits inside pin range or roll if momentum continues past 175
Asymmetric upside play that benefits if pinning drives price into upside while reducing premium paid vs naked calls
Outperforms: Buy 160/175 to capture upside skew against front IV drop; limited loss and capped gain.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-01 $155.00 put + sell $180.00 call
Credit: $9.74-$11.91
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $11.91
BE: 143.09 / 191.91
Call-heavy flow concentrates at 170–175; selling OTM call and 155P picks up wide premium with capital to withstand move.
Outperforms: Sell near-term strangle across pin zone to collect rich call premium and expected post-earnings IV collapse.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot 26% above multi-price raises downside gap risk into post-close report.
!High front-week IV implies large P/L swings pre/post event despite pinning.
!Consensus move materially below implied move — tail risk if results diverge.

What to Watch

?4/24 ATM IV and realized move vs implied (watch 9–10% implied band)
?Volume/OI shifts at 170–175 pre-close
?Post-report front-week IV drop vs projected 38–43pp
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.