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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $419.09EOD only
Max Pain
$417.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.98
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-1.59
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
17
Low premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/29 (23 days out). IV term structure shows a sharp kink at 5/01 (37.7% vs 27.5% pre), indicating elevated IV for earnings. Best strategy is selling premium via iron condor given high positive GEX pinning and historical tendency to under-move expected move. Key risk is a large gap beyond EM bounds due to structural call OI walls far above spot.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.5% from MP
Most important: IV term structure kink at 5/01 confirms earnings date and elevated IV; positive GEX $+54.3M suggests strong pinning forces.
📅Earnings confirmed 4/29, IV kink at 5/01 expiration
📊Positive GEX $+54.3M indicates strong pinning; dealers will hedge to suppress volatility

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (23 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (25d): ±$29.07 (7.8%) [$343.81 - $401.96]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/01 (37.7% vs 27.5% pre-earnings), elevated for earnings; normalizes to ~32% post-earnings.

Crush estimate: ~10 vol pts, back to ~27%

Skew: P/C OI ratio 0.45 indicates heavy call OI dominance; puts slightly richer in near-term based on IVs.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit historical move data provided, but EPS surprise consistently positive.

Directional bias: Consistent EPS beats suggest upside bias.

Key Levels

1$370.00
2$365.00
3$362.50
4$375.00
5$380.00
6$395.00

Flow Highlights

Heavy $370P 4/08 buying (5,913 vol vs 228 OI, 25.9x)

Near-term downside protection or speculative put buying.

Large net premium outflow $-159.5M, dominated by put selling at strikes like $490 (net $-29.3M)

Institutional put writing for income, indicating confidence in not dropping sharply.

Strategies

Iron condor
Sell $343.81/$335.00P x $401.96/$410.00C 5/01
Credit: $4.50-$5.50
Max loss: $20.50
Max gain: $5.00
BE: $338.31
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV >35%
High positive GEX pinning, elevated IV crush potential, and historical EPS beat consistency support range-bound outcome.
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds $343.81-$401.96
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >10%
Long straddle
Buy $372.50 straddle 5/01
Max loss: $29.07
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $343.43
Trigger: Enter if IV <40% and stock shows pre-earnings volatility compression
IV elevated at 37.7%, historical EPS beat rate 100% suggests potential for larger-than-expected move.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM 7.8% by >30%
Underperforms: Stock pins near $372.50, IV crushes ~10 vol pts
Put credit spread
Sell $362.50/$357.50P 5/01
Credit: $1.20-$1.50
Max loss: $3.80
Max gain: $1.30
BE: $361.30
Trigger: Enter if spot holds above $370 support
Positive GEX pinning, heavy put OI at $352.50 provides indirect support, and historical EPS beats favor upside.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $362.50
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $357.50

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM ±7.8% ($343.81-$401.96) but structural call OI walls at $400-$525 could cap upside; downside support clustered near $365-$370.
!IV crush of ~10 vol pts likely post-earnings; long premium strategies need move >8% to overcome crush.
!Liquidity excellent (3.17M OI, 267K volume); sizing should account for pinning forces from $+54.3M GEX.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into earnings (watch 5/01 IV vs 4/24)
?Spot action relative to $370-$375 pin magnets
?Unusual OTM put activity at strikes like $490 for institutional flow clues
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.