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MSFT

Microsoft CorporationClose $421.06EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.28
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-6.06
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
0.46
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSFT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
MSFT Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/29 (inferred). IV is elevated in the May 1 expiration, creating a crush opportunity. Strong gamma pinning and bearish flow suggest a contained move, favoring premium-selling strategies. The key risk is a guidance-driven breakout from the established range.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong gamma pinning; +0.5 clear term structure kink; -0.5 elevated IV not extreme
Most important: IV term structure shows a clear kink at 5/01 (35.4% vs 27.8% on 4/24), confirming earnings pricing. Stock is pinned above max pain with massive negative net premium flow.
🎯Earnings date inferred from IV kink at 5/01. Confirm via company IR.
⚠️Massive bearish premium flow (-$3.1B) is a notable divergence from the pinning regime. Monitor for breakdown.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 33%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$129.5M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bearish (net prem $-3130.8M, P/C 1.56)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 5.8% (spot $370.17 vs MP $350)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-29 (29 days)inferred (IV kink at 5/01, 2 days after 4/29)

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (31d): ±$30.00 (8.1%) [$340.17 - $400.17]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 5/01 (35.4% vs 27.8% on 4/24). Elevated IV isolated to May expirations.

Crush estimate: ~7-8 vol pts, back to ~28% (post-5/01 IV ~27-28%)

Skew: Unusual put activity in April/May at strikes $440-$515 suggests large, far OTM protective positioning.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot compute from provided data (no historical move %).

Directional bias: All 4 quarters beat EPS estimates.

Key Levels

1$350 (near-term max pain)
2$365-$370 (near-term MP cluster)
3EM: $340 - $400
4$440-$515 (heavy OTM put OI wall)

Flow Highlights

Massive net negative premium flow concentrated at puts $450-$490 (e.g., $460P: -$360M net).

Institutional put buying for protection or hedging, contributing to bearish flow signal.

Unusual volume in 4/17 & 5/15 puts at strikes $440-$515 (25x+ volume/OI).

Large block trades for downside protection, likely rolling or establishing hedges ahead of earnings.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Premium Sale)
Sell $340P / Buy $330P x Sell $400C / Buy $410C 5/01
Credit: $4.50-$5.50
Max loss: $5.50
Max gain: $4.50
BE: $345.50 / $394.50
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings (mid-late April).
Elevated IV in May expiration provides rich premium. Historical beat rate is high, but gamma pinning and mean-reverting GEX suggest a contained reaction. Structure captures ~73% of the expected move for credit.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 8.1% expected move bounds ($340-$400). Strong pinning regime supports this.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes ($340 or $400) on earnings.
Long Put Calendar Spread (Bearish/Bearish Hedge)
Buy $370P 5/01 (IV 35.4%) / Sell $370P 4/24 (IV 27.8%)
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Uncapped if stock drops sharply post-earnings
BE: Complex; profits from IV crush on short leg and delta move down.
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings.
Capitalizes on the IV kink at the earnings date. Benefits from a down move aligned with bearish flow signal, while the short near-term leg helps finance the trade and benefits from faster IV crush.
Outperforms: Stock declines post-earnings, and the IV differential (crush) is realized.
Underperforms: Stock rallies or pins at $370, suffering from time decay on long leg.
Bull Put Spread (Pinning Play)
Sell $350P / Buy $340P 5/01
Credit: $1.80-$2.20
Max loss: $8.20
Max gain: $1.80
BE: $348.20
Trigger: Enter if spot drifts toward $365-$370 cluster.
Simpler than an iron condor, betting on the strong pinning regime and mean-reverting GEX to hold through earnings. Collects premium with a buffer nearly equal to the expected move to the downside.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $350 (5.5% below spot). Aligns with max pain support and positive GEX.
Underperforms: Earnings cause a break below $350.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 8.1% expected move is significant. A guidance surprise could break the pinning regime.
!IV Crush: Estimated 7-8 point crush is moderate, not extreme. Long premium strategies need a larger-than-expected move.
!Liquidity: Excellent (3.3M+ OI). No issues trading standard strikes.
!Sizing: Credit spreads advisable due to pinning; size for max loss in case of breakout.

What to Watch

?Spot price action relative to the $365-$370 max pain cluster into late April.
?IV in the May 1 expiration for further expansion or early contraction.
?Any unusual call buying to counter the dominant bearish put flow.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.