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USO

United States Oil FundClose $105.48EOD only
Max Pain
$109.00
Next expiry Jul 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.72
3.5% from close
Price Gap
+3.52
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
1.46
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 26, 2026 close
USO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026
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Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

USO faces bearish pressure from dealer short gamma and elevated put flow, with spot at max pain $107. High vol regime supports downside extension toward $100 gamma flip, but near-term pin at $107 may slow moves. Confidence high given alignment of flow and GEX.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 spot near max pain; +1 VIX support. Total 9/10.
Supports: GEX/flow alignment, spot at max pain, elevated VIX.
Conflicts: Bearish flow but high dealer gamma-flip risk; potential reversal if $107 holds.
⚠️Dealer short gamma -$56.7M amplifies moves, adding downside momentum if $107 breaks.
📉Bearish flow dominance with puts accumulating; spot at max pain $107 suggests magnetic pull.
📊High vol regime supports breakouts; 1w range $101.85-$112.32.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV is High relative to typical range, reflecting elevated options premium and implied move expectations.
Gamma Regime
Trending
GEX is -$56.7M, meaning dealers are short gamma, amplifying directional moves by hedging into strength/weakness.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Net premium flow is bearish with elevated put activity, aligning with negative gamma positioning.
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot is at max pain level $107, creating a pinning effect but increasing risk of violent break if it fails.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Key weekly expirations (Jul 1,2,8) and elevated vol/dealer positioning point to event-driven moves.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$104.61$109.56
Probing support $104.61 with dealer gamma acceleration.
Next 1 week
$101.85$112.32
Extended move toward $101.85-$112.32 but bearish bias; $105 key.
Next 2 weeks
$99.66$114.51
Wider range $99.66-$114.51; potential consolidation near gamma flip $100.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $107 (2026-07-01); $110 (2026-07-02); $106 (2026-07-08)
EM guardrails: 2d $104.61/$109.56; 1w $101.85/$112.32
Support: $107.00 · $105.00 · $100.00
Resistance: $114.51
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,331 (6.6% below spot)
Structural: Support: $107 (max pain), $105, $100 (gamma flip). Resistance: $114.51 (2w high). Structural guardrails: 2d $104.61/$109.56, 1w $101.85/$112.32.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-56.7M

DEX: +37.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,331 (6.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers short gamma ($-56.7M) with flip at ~$100; hedge by selling into strength and buying into weakness, accelerating moves. Downside risk elevated if $107 breaks.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich vs VIX 18, indicating elevated implied vol relative to broad market fear; options pricing significant event risk.

Term structure: Term structure steep near expiry with event kinks around weekly expirations (Jul 1,2,8); back months cheaper.

Skew: Put skew elevated; opportunity in selling elevated IV via vertical spreads if bearish thesis plays out.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net negative $63M (net premium received) from sold puts; put buying dominates volume, overall bearish bias.

Directional prints: 52.2 put 95 OTM 2026-07-10 — Heavy put buying (vol 7678, OI 1080) suggests hedging or bearish bet; likely bought. 43.8 put 104 OTM 2026-07-10 — Elevated put volume (vol 868, OI 163) in near-dated; bearish put buying preferred.

Unusual: 48.3 call 120 OTM 2026-07-10 — Extreme vol/OI 12.9 on OTM call; could be short covering or aggressive bullish; likely bought. 122.3 call 70 ITM 2026-07-24 — Low vol (769) vs OI (101) but high IV; deep ITM call suggests conversion or early exercise. 83 put 70 OTM 2026-07-24 — High vol/OI (7.1) on far OTM put; likely sold puts for premium, but bearish skew.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot reverses from $107 support if dealers cover gamma, causing rally.
!OPEC or inventory news spiking volatility.
!Gamma flip at $100 attracting buyers, limiting downside.
!Low liquidity in far OTM options distorting IV readings.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadStrong
Buy 2026-07-17 $105.00/$101.00 put spread
Why now: Elevated put flow and dealer short gamma drive decline; max pain at $107 caps upside.
Spot reversal if dealers cover gamma at $107 or positive OPEC news.
Long putModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $105.00 put
Why now: Heavy put buying and short gamma make outright put attractive for downside extension.
Time decay if move delayed; spot rally against resistance.
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-17 $110.00/$113.00 call spread
Why now: Dealer short gamma caps upside; sell call spread above $110 to capture premium.
Spot breaks above $110 if gamma flips or bullish catalyst. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $105.00/$101.00 put spread
Buy $105/$101 put spread to profit from downside extension toward $100.
Why this play: Aligns with bearish flow and short gamma; defined risk.
Debit: $1.05-$1.28
Max loss: $1.28
BE: $103.72
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $114.51 or near $100 gamma flip.
Trader seeking defined risk bearish exposure.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-17 $105.00 put
Buy $105 put to capture larger downside move.
Why this play: Direct bearish bet on continued downside; elevated put flow supports.
Debit: $2.29-$2.79
Max loss: $2.79
BE: $102.21
Mgmt: Manage at $100 gamma flip or if spot reverses above $114.51.
Aggressive trader comfortable with higher premium outlay.
#3
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $110.00/$113.00 call spread
Sell $110/$113 call spread to collect premium on capped upside.
Why this play: Capped upside due to short gamma; sell call spread for premium.
Credit: $0.75-$0.92
Max loss: $2.08
BE: $110.92
Mgmt: Exit if spot exceeds $114.51 or volatility spikes. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Trader expecting sideways to lower price action.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot breaks below $107 support on volume → Enter USO-BPS-1: buy 2026-07-17 $105/$101 put spread for $1.05-$1.28
IFSpot declines toward $105 with bearish momentum → Enter USO-LP-2: buy 2026-07-17 $105 put for $2.29-$2.79
IFSpot rallies toward $110 but below $114.51 → Enter USO-CCS-3: sell 2026-07-17 $110/$113 call spread for $0.75-$0.92
Adjustment Triggers
ADJSpot reaches $100 gamma flip → Take partial profits on USO-BPS-1 and USO-LP-2; consider reversal
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot breaks above $114.51 → Exit all bearish positions (USO-BPS-1, USO-LP-2)

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias on USO due to dealer short gamma and elevated put flow. Key support: $107 (max pain), $105, $100 (gamma flip). Resistance: $114.51. Prioritize bear put spread or long put on breaks below $107; exit if above $114.51. Manage at $100 flip.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.