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USO

United States Oil FundClose $112.69EOD only
Max Pain
$118.00
Next expiry Jun 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.85
3.4% from close
Price Gap
+5.31
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
1.63
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
USO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias: spot below max pain, dealer negative gamma, trending. Supports $110; break to $108.9-105.3.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base5 +2 GEX/flow -0.5 spot/MP +0.5 VIX=7
Supports: Dealer short gamma, spot below MP, trending, VIX high.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, $110 support, $117 pin.
📉Spot 4.9% below $117 max pain, bearish.
⚠️Gamma flip $100; break below $110 targets $105.
📊Dealer short gamma $65.6M, trending favors momentum.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High from VIX 19.5 and elevated sector vol.
Gamma Regime
Trending
GEX -$65.6M, trending; flip ~$100 from puts.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed: long delta 38.5M, short gamma.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~$110.5, 4.9% below $117 MP, bearish.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Expirations Jun24/26/Jul1 drive event risk.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$108.91$113.61
Below $108.91 opens $105.28.
Next 1 week
$105.28$117.24
Max pain $117 caps.
Next 2 weeks
$102.84$119.69
Gamma flip $100 support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $117 (2026-06-24); $120 (2026-06-26); $109 (2026-07-01)
EM guardrails: 2d $108.91/$113.61; 1w $105.28/$117.24
Support: $110.00 · $102.84
Resistance: $117.00 · $119.69
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,281 (10.1% below spot)
Structural: S $110, $102.84; R $117, $119.69; G flip $100.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-65.6M

DEX: +38.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,281 (10.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net short gamma -$65.6M, long delta 38.5M. Gamma flip $100 from puts.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX from sector vol.

Term structure: Contango with expiries kinks.

Skew: Put skew elevated $100; short puts near $110.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -69.5M net put premium, bearish with put/call OI ratio 1.57 confirming put dominance.

Directional prints: 58.8 put 95 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 24.3x, new bearish puts bought, targeting decline below $95 by 7/2.

Unusual: 47.9 call 120 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 16.8x, unusual OTM call buying, bullish bet on rally above $120 by 7/2. 178.5 put 143 ITM 2026-06-24 — Extreme IV 178.5%, ITM put trade with vol/OI 4.3x, likely protective or bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Oil shocks.
!Break above $117 squeezes.
!Drop below $100 accelerates.
!Positioning unwind.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-10 $106.00/$101.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk debit spread profits from decline, dealer gamma supports.
Bounce above short strike or volatility crush losses.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-10 $106.00 put
Why now: Simple convex payoff if spot drops to $105 or below.
Time decay if move delayed beyond expiration.
Put diagonalConditional
Sell 2026-07-10 $106.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $105.00 put
Why now: Term structure elevated; front-month decay funds hedge.
Sharp immediate decline hurts short put position.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-10 $106.00/$101.00 put spread
Buy $106/$101 put spread targeting decline with limited risk.
Why this play: Defined risk, profits from decline, dealer gamma support.
Debit: $0.99-$1.20
Max loss: $1.20
BE: $104.80
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or on break above $117.
Bearish traders wanting defined risk.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-10 $106.00 put
Buy $106 put for unlimited downside potential.
Why this play: Simple convex payoff if drop below $105.
Debit: $1.85-$2.27
Max loss: $2.27
BE: $103.73
Mgmt: Set stop at $117 invalidation.
Traders expecting sharp decline.
#3
Put Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $106.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $105.00 put
Sell front put, buy back-month put for time decay edge.
Why this play: Term structure benefits, front-month decay funds hedge.
Debit: $2.08-$2.55
Max loss: $2.55
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Roll if short put becomes ATM.
Advanced traders seeking vega neutral.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot closes below $110 with RSI below 30 → THEN enter bear put spread: buy $106/$101 put spread at $0.99-$1.20
IFIF spot drops to $105 or below on volume >1.5x average → THEN buy long put: $106 put at $1.85-$2.27
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF short put in diagonal becomes ATM near $106 → THEN roll put diagonal to next monthly expiry
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot closes above $117 → THEN exit bear put spread and long put positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias; target $102.84 support. Key levels: $110 support, $117 resistance. Use bear put spread for defined risk or long put for convexity. Manage risk: exit if $117 broken.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.