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USO

United States Oil FundClose $125.43EOD only
Max Pain
$134.00
Next expiry Jun 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.96
4.8% from close
Price Gap
+8.57
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
1.65
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
USO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias: high vol, trending gamma, and long dealer delta (+37.7M shares) support upside. Negative GEX (-$51M) and spot 8.2% below max pain ($132) suggest resistance near $130-132. Near-term range $117.91-$124.51; break above opens $127-130.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 VIX 16 -1 spot vs MP = 7
Supports: High vol, trending gamma, positive dealer delta (+37.7M), broad market rally (SPY +1.76%, QQQ +3.14%), break potential above $124.51.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, negative dealer gamma (-$51M), spot below max pain (call wall resistance), VIX not extremely low.
📈Dealer long delta (+37.7M shares) supports bullish hedging momentum.
⚠️Negative GEX (-$51M) and spot 8.2% below max pain ($132) create resistance $130-132.
🔮Trending gamma amplifies moves; break above $124.51 targets $127-130.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high relative to recent range; VIX 16.2 supports moderate volatility, but USO IV elevated due to oil price uncertainty.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma with negative dealer gamma (-$51M); flip ~$100 (17.5% below spot). Amplifies momentum moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed options flow; no clear directional signal, but positive dealer delta suggests underlying buying pressure.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot 8.2% below max pain ($132) indicating call resistance and potential drift toward MP by expiry.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol, trending gamma, and structural dealer positioning suggest a multi-week directional trend; resistance at $130-132 can resolve over 1-2 weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$117.91$124.51
Break above requires strong momentum; support $117.91.
Next 1 week
$114.56$127.85
Resistance $125-127; breakout targets $130.
Next 2 weeks
$111.73$130.68
Max pain $132 acts as magnet; risk of rejection at $130.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $132 (2026-06-17); $125 (2026-06-18); $130 (2026-06-24)
EM guardrails: 2d $117.91/$124.51; 1w $114.56/$127.85
Support: $111.73
Resistance: $130.68 · $132.00
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 31,772 (17.5% below spot)
Structural: Support: $111.73 (2w low). Resistance: $130.68 (2w high), $132 (max pain). Gamma flip: ~$100. EM guardrails: 2d $117.91/$124.51; 1w $114.56/$127.85.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-51.0M

DEX: +37.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 31,772 (17.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$51M (negative gamma), DEX +37.7M shares (long delta). Negative gamma amplifies moves; long delta supports bullish bias. Gamma flip at ~$100 (put OI concentration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: USO IV rich vs VIX (16.2), indicating high options premium and expected large moves. Favors vol sellers but risk of trending moves.

Term structure: Contango with event kinks near weekly expiries (June 17,18,24). Near-term vols elevated due to gamma positioning.

Skew: Negative skew (puts expensive) from dealer short gamma. Opportunity: sell put spreads below $111 or buy call spreads on break of $124.51.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$64.7M, put/call vol 1.0, OI 1.68. Bearish bias.

Directional prints: 45.4 put 117 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol 1206 OI 100 (12.1x). New put positions. Bearish. 44.9 put 117 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol 3218 OI 348 (9.2x). Continued bearish put buying. 50.5 put 90 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol 1053 OI 117 (9.0x). Deep OTM put speculation. Bearish.

Unusual: 66.6 call 100 ITM 2026-07-10 — Vol 766 OI 105 (7.3x). ITM call buying. Bullish. 46.6 call 135 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol 3186 OI 728 (4.4x). OTM call buying. Bullish. 63.9 put 95 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 459 OI 112 (4.1x). OTM put activity. Bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Reversal from resistance at $130-132 (max pain).
!Negative gamma exacerbates selloff if spot breaks below $117.91.
!Mixed flow indicates lack of conviction.
!VIX at 16 may rise, hurting long vol positions.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-17 $121.00/$136.00 call spread
Why now: High vol, long dealer delta, and negative GEX support upside. Spot below max pain $132 suggests room to run.
Resistance at $130-132 may cap gains; spread limits profit but also risk.
Long callModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $127.00 call
Why now: Bullish bias with gamma support; long dated option benefits from vol expansion if trend continues.
Time decay if move is slow; premium cost if wrong direction.
Call diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-07-02 $129.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $125.00 call
Why now: Sell rich near-term vol (IV ~49% on upside strikes) and own back-month call for continued upside; aligns with multi-week thesis.
Sharp selloff hurts long call; short call caps near-term upside.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $121.00/$136.00 call spread
Buy $121 call, sell $136 call. Lowers cost, captures upside with capped profit.
Why this play: Balanced risk/reward with defined loss; upside to $136 fits bullish thesis while resistance near max pain $132 limits downside.
Debit: $3.80-$4.65
Max loss: $4.65
BE: $125.65
Mgmt: Exit near $132 resistance or on invalidation below $111.73.
Moderate bullish view, limited risk tolerance
#2
Long Call
Buy 2026-07-17 $127.00 call
Buy $127 call. Straightforward directional bet with unlimited profit potential.
Why this play: Unlimited upside potential; benefits if vol expands as trend continues. Higher premium but no cap on gains.
Debit: $3.78-$4.62
Max loss: $4.62
BE: $131.62
Mgmt: Monitor vol; roll if spot stalls; exit below $111.73.
Aggressive bullish, confident in trend continuation
#3
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-02 $129.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $125.00 call
Sell $129 call (2wk), buy $125 call (5wk). Profits from time decay and vol difference.
Why this play: Sells rich near-term vol, buys back-month call. Best for multi-week thesis but requires active management.
Debit: $2.40-$2.94
Max loss: $2.94
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Adjust if front-month strike is breached; close by front expiration.
Advanced traders expecting vol contraction near-term but bullish medium-term

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSpot breaks above $124.51 (2d upper guardrail) with volume. → Buy $121/$136 call spread (USO_bull_call_spread_1) for $4.00 limit.
IFSpot pulls back to $117.91 (2d lower guardrail) and holds. → Buy $127 call (USO_long_call_1) for $4.20 limit.
Exit Triggers
EXITSpot drops below $111.73 (invalidation level). → Exit all bullish positions immediately.
EXITSpot reaches $132 (max pain resistance). → Close bull call spread or long call for profit; consider remaining in diagonal.

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with high vol and long dealer delta (+37.7M). Negative GEX (-$51M) and spot 8.2% below max pain ($132) suggest upside toward $127-130 but resistance near $130-132. Support $111.73. Near-term range $117.91-$124.51; break above opens $127-130. Multi-week thesis.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.