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USO

United States Oil FundClose $106.29EOD only
Max Pain
$120.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.43
1.4% from close
Price Gap
+13.71
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
6
Low premium
P/C OI
1.54
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4.5/10
Downside lean
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
USO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish thesis: short gamma positioning (-$51.5M GEX) amplifies downside moves, bearish flow (though small vs open interest), and spot below $115 max pain pin to $109 support. Dealer long delta (+36.4M shares) may slow selloff but gamma flip ~$100 provides key risk. VIX 19 suggests tail risk elevated. Bias to test lower range over next 2 days to 2 weeks.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, -0.5 spot 4.9% from MP, +0.5 VIX 19 → 7. No override needed; model captures key factors.
Supports: Short gamma, bearish flow, spot below MP, VIX elevated.
Conflicts: Spot within 2d range ($107-111), dealer long delta may buffer downside, gamma flip at $100 far below spot.
📉Short gamma -$51.5M: Dealers amplify downside; any break below $107.15 may accelerate to $105.
🛡️Dealer long delta +36.4M shares provides support, but weak vs gamma.
🎯Gamma flip ~$100 is 8.5% below spot; low probability but risk if oil crashes.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV is elevated (VIX 19, vol regime High), implying rich option premiums; expected move is wide, favoring directional plays but with high cost.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma environment: dealers net short gamma -$51.5M, so they hedge by selling into strength and buying into weakness, exacerbating moves.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Net premium flow is bearish (small relative to open interest), consistent with put buying; P/C ratio suggests defensive positioning.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot is below nearest max pain ($115 Jun26, $109 Jul1); $109 is key support/pin target. Distance ~4.9% below $109 implies bearish bias.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Bearish flow, short gamma, and spot below key levels suggest pressure can persist across weekly expiries; no single event catalyst but structural dealer positioning.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$107.15$111.46
Test lower end $107.15; break below targets $105.
Next 1 week
$104.82$113.80
Slide toward $104.82 support; gamma flip $100 distant but possible.
Next 2 weeks
$105.61$113.01
Range $105-114; short gamma may cause whipsaws near expiration.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $115 (2026-06-26); $109 (2026-07-01); $115 (2026-07-02)
EM guardrails: 2d $107.15/$111.46; 1w $104.82/$113.80
Support: $105.61 · $100.00
Resistance: $113.01 · $115.00
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 31,402 (8.5% below spot)
Structural: Support: $105.61 (2w low), $100 (gamma flip). Resistance: $113.01 (2w high), $115 (max pain, call wall). MP pins: $115 (Jun26), $109 (Jul1), $115 (Jul2). EM guardrails: 2d $107-111, 1w $105-114.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-51.5M

DEX: +36.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 31,402 (8.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net GEX -$51.5M (short gamma) across all expiries; total delta +36.4M shares. Gamma flip at ~$100 due to put OI concentration (31,402 contracts). Dealers are short vega/vol, amplifying moves. Positive gamma above $100? Unlikely.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV is likely elevated relative to VIX 19 given high vol regime; precise comparison not available but implied vol is rich, favoring premium sellers on rallies.

Term structure: No explicit data; typical contango in oil ETFs suggests longer-dated IV higher. Short-term IV may spike near OPEC or inventory releases.

Skew: Skew likely negative (puts premium); no actionable structure identified but selling overpriced puts below $105 could capture high IV if supported.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$67.5M with put/call vol ratio 1.46 and OI ratio 1.49, bearish.

Directional prints: 45 put 105 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol 2563 vs OI 481 (5.3x), OTM put. Strong buying likely bearish; preferred read is bearish. 57.6 put 80 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol 948 vs OI 194 (4.9x), deep OTM put. Bearish positioning; likely bought.

Unusual: 49.3 call 122 OTM 2026-07-17 — Vol 2025 vs OI 346 (5.8x), high vol/oi. Bullish flow contradicts bearish net; likely bought. 244.5 call 80 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol 606 vs OI 178 (3.4x), extreme IV (244.5%). Deep ITM call, possibly closing or opening position. 52.3 call 300 OTM 2027-06-17 — Vol 391 vs OI 122 (3.2x), far OTM leap. Unusual long-dated bullish bet; likely bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Unexpected geopolitical oil supply shock reverses bearish flow.
!Spot holds above $107 support; dealer long delta + short gamma may trigger sharp bounce to $113.
!Max pain pin $109 attracts spot; gamma flip $100 too low to matter near term.
!VIX drop quiets vol; short gamma impact fades.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-10 $105.00/$100.00 put spread
Why now: Bearish flow, short gamma, negative GEX; 105 put has high volume. Defined risk limits tail risk from dealer long delta bounce.
If spot holds above 107, spread may expire worthless. Max loss is initial debit.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-10 $105.00 put
Why now: High put volume on 105 strike, short gamma amplifies downside. Long put captures convexity with limited capital outlay.
Time decay if spot stays above 110. Need direction within DTE window.
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-10 $118.00/$123.00 call spread
Why now: Spot below max pain 109, resistance at 115. Sell OTM call spread to profit from spot remaining below 115.
Unexpected jump above 115 due to supply shock. Short call naked tail but defined risk with long call. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Wide spread (70%).

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-10 $105.00/$100.00 put spread
Buy 105/100 put spread to profit from downside to $100, with limited premium outlay.
Why this play: Aligns with bearish flow and short gamma, defined risk limits tail risk from dealer long delta bounce.
Debit: $1.04-$1.27
Max loss: $1.27
BE: $103.73
Mgmt: Exit near $100 or if spot breaks above $113 invalidation level.
Traders expecting moderate downside but cautious about unexpected bounces.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-10 $105.00 put
Buy 105 put to benefit from accelerated downside moves with unlimited profit potential.
Why this play: Captures convexity from short gamma amplification, high put volume on 105 strike.
Debit: $1.79-$2.19
Max loss: $2.19
BE: $102.81
Mgmt: Monitor gamma flip at $100; consider taking profits on sharp drops, cut losses if spot rises above $113.
Traders seeking high leverage and strong directional conviction on bearish move.
#3
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $118.00/$123.00 call spread
Sell 118/123 call spread to profit from spot staying below resistance.
Why this play: Bearish on upside, but lower liquidity and smaller profit potential; ranks third.
Credit: $0.57-$0.70
Max loss: $4.30
BE: $118.70
Mgmt: Close if spot approaches $113; maximum profit at expiration if spot below $118. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Wide spread (70%).
Traders expecting limited upside and wanting to collect premium with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot breaks below $105.61 support → THEN enter Bear Put Spread 2026-07-10 $105.00/$100.00 at 1.04-1.27
IFIF spot breaks below $105.61 with high volume → THEN enter Long Put 2026-07-10 $105.00 at 1.79-2.19
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot reaches $100 gamma flip → THEN take profits on all bearish positions
EXITIF spot breaks above $113.01 invalidation → THEN exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish due to short gamma, bearish flow, spot below max pain $115. Key support $105.61, gamma flip $100. Use bear put spread or long put. Invalidation $113.01. Manage at $100.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.