thetaOwl
HomeOptionsUSOReports

USO

United States Oil FundClose $114.87EOD only
Max Pain
$119.00
Next expiry Jun 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.88
5.1% from close
Price Gap
+4.13
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
47
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.57
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
USO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 18, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish USO: spot at $115 max pain OPEX. Negative dealer gamma (-$71.3M) and bearish flow. Bias down to 1w support $108.99.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Base5 +2GEX/flow +1spotMP +1VIX16
Supports: GEX negative, flow bearish, pin at MP
Conflicts: SPY/QQQ up, DEX long 41.6M shares
🎯Spot pinned to $115 OPEX
📉Negative gamma $71.3M amplifies moves
🛢Oil macro divergent vs equities

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV high vs typical, OPEX + macro uncertainty
Gamma Regime
Trending
Gamma trending negative -$71.3M, flip ~$100
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish net premium, puts dominate
Spot vs Max Pain
At
Spot at $115 MP (0.1%)
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Monthly OPEX pin; post-expiry gamma flips

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$108.99$120.75
Bias to $108.99 support
Next 2 weeks
$106.35$123.40
Bias lower to $106.35

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $115 (2026-06-18); $119 (2026-06-24); $120 (2026-06-26)
EM guardrails: 1w $108.99/$120.75
Support: $110.00 · $106.35
Resistance: $115.00 · $123.40
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,221 (12.9% below spot)
Structural: MP $115/$119/$120; EM $108.99/$120.75; S $110/$106.35; R $115/$123.4; gamma flip $100

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-71.3M

DEX: +41.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,221 (12.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM GEX -$71.3M, DEX +41.6M shares, gamma flip $100 (~12.9% below spot)

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX (16.4) – oil risk premium high

Term structure: Futures in contango; options near-term kinked at OPEX

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling puts at $110 attractive but risky due to negative gamma

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net bearish premium of -$103.7M with put/call vol ratio 2.29 and OI ratio 1.57, indicating strong put buying dominance.

Directional prints: 121.9 put 96 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 72.1: massive OTM put volume, likely bought as bearish speculation. Preferred read: bearish. 32.8 put 112 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 4.7: elevated OTM put activity, likely bought. Preferred read: bearish.

Unusual: 58 call 110 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 5.1: high call volume relative to OI, could be bought or sold. With bearish context, likely sold. Unusual activity. 42.7 call 110 ITM 2027-06-17 — Vol/OI 5.0: long-dated ITM call, possibly a long position. Preferred read: bullish but isolated. 109.5 call 85 ITM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 2.5: deep ITM call with high premium, unusual size. Possibly exercised or rolled. Uncertain.

Risks & Catalysts

!Macro rally lifts USO
!Geopolitical supply shock
!Post-OPEX break below $100 gamma flip

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-02 $115.00/$105.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk debit spread captures downside with favorable risk/reward near max pain $115.
If USO rallies sharply, max loss is premium paid.
Long putModerate
Buy 2026-07-02 $110.00 put
Why now: Direct convexity to downside with limited risk and no tail risk from short calls.
Time decay if move stalls; premium lost if flat.
Call credit spreadModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-07-02 $118.00/$124.00 call spread
Why now: Sells overpriced calls at resistance, defined risk, benefits from time decay if spot remains below short strike.
Strong macro rally could break through $115, causing loss. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-02 $110.00 put
Buy OTM put to capture downside in USO with defined risk.
Why this play: Direct bearish convexity; aligns with massive put flow and negative gamma.
Debit: $2.12-$2.59
Max loss: $2.59
BE: $107.41
Mgmt: Monitor invalidation at $115; take partial profits at $108 support.
Aggressive bearish traders seeking convex payoff.
#2
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-02 $115.00/$105.00 put spread
Buy put spread to target downside with limited risk and time decay.
Why this play: Defined risk and favorable risk/reward near max pain; second best choice.
Debit: $3.18-$3.88
Max loss: $3.88
BE: $111.12
Mgmt: Exit if spot above $115; target $105.
Moderate bearish traders desiring defined risk.
#3
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-02 $118.00/$124.00 call spread
Earn premium selling call spread betting spot stays below $118.
Why this play: Sells overpriced calls at resistance, but lower liquidity; third preferred.
Credit: $1.29-$1.58
Max loss: $4.42
BE: $119.58
Mgmt: Close if spot nears $118; spread width defines risk. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Income-focused bearish traders with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF USO spot breaks below $115 resistance → THEN buy 2026-07-02 $110 put
IFIF USO spot holds below $115 and shows bearish continuation → THEN buy 2026-07-02 $115/$105 put spread
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF USO spot falls to $108.99 support → THEN take partial profits on long put and tighten spread
Exit Triggers
EXITIF USO spot rallies above $115 → THEN close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish USO: spot at $115 max pain, negative gamma, strong put flow. Bias down to $108.99 in 1w. Favor long put (rank 1) or bear put spread (rank 2) while spot under $115. Exit if above $115. Adjust profits at $108.99.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 18, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.