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USO

United States Oil FundClose $115.47EOD only
Max Pain
$129.00
Next expiry Jun 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.68
2.3% from close
Price Gap
+13.53
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
1.65
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 16, 2026 close
USO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Slightly bearish bias into 06/17 expiry. Spot near max pain, negative GEX and bearish flow pressure lower toward $110 support. Risk of bounce at $100 gamma flip.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5. +2 from GEX/flow alignment, -0.5 from spot near MP (slight above), +0.5 from VIX 18. Net 7.0.
Supports: GEX -$79.7M, bearish flow, high vol regime
Conflicts: DEX +44.8M, gamma flip at $100, spot near MP
🔻Bearish flow + negative gamma = downside acceleration
⚠️Spot near max pain; pin action neutral
⚠️Gamma flip at $100 key downside target but potential reversal

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol due to oil uncertainty and event risk (06/17 expiry)
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma (GEX -$79.7M) amplifies direction
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow: net put premium
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot $125.22, 0.18% above max pain $125, neutral pin
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Monthly expiry with significant put OI at $100 (12.5% below spot)

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$111.26$117.20
Test lower range $111.26 support
Next 1 week
$107.50$120.96
Potential reach $100 gamma flip
Next 2 weeks
$110.01$118.46
Post-expiry consolidation near $110-$118

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $125 (2026-06-17); $120 (2026-06-18); $120 (2026-06-24)
EM guardrails: 2d $111.26/$117.20; 1w $107.50/$120.96
Support: $110.01 · $110.00
Resistance: $118.46 · $125.00
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 31,884 (12.5% below spot)
Structural: MP pins: $125 (06/17), $120 (06/18, 06/24). EM: 2d $111/$117, 1w $107/$121. Sup: $110. Res: $118. Gamma flip $100 (put OI).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-79.7M

DEX: +44.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 31,884 (12.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$79.7M, DEX +44.8M. Gamma flip ~$100 (put OI 31.9k).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV high vs VIX 18.4, oil premium

Term structure: Kink at weekly expiry, contango further

Skew: Put skew elevated; short puts at $100 attractive vs gamma support

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium $67.6M, P/C vol ratio 1.27, OI ratio 1.56 - bearish.

Directional prints: 21.6 put 115 ITM 2026-06-17 — Vol 4699 vs OI 1402, high absolute volume suggests aggressive put buying for downside protection; preferred read: buy-side. 7.6 put 114 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol 3192, OI 874, vol/OI 3.6x; likely bought OTM puts for bearish speculation; preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 22.3 call 117 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 9.2x; extremely high relative volume; likely bought OTM calls as lottery tickets; preferred read: bought. 35.2 call 119 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 8.4x; similar pattern but higher IV; likely bought; preferred read: bought. 11.7 put 113 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 7.5x; OTM put with low IV; likely bought for bearish hedge or speculation; preferred read: bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Oil supply shock
!Positive gamma flip at $100
!DEX support if spot stabilizes
!Max pain drift if vol contracts

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long putModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-02 $110.00 put
Why now: Aggressive put buying and skewed volumes justify bearish exposure with defined risk.
Time decay and potential bounce at $100 gamma flip.
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-02 $110.00/$105.00 put spread
Why now: Limited capital at risk while benefiting from bearish bias.
Max loss limited to debit; potential early assignment risk.
Bearish risk reversalConditional
Buy 2026-07-02 $110.00 put / sell 2026-07-02 $120.00 call
Why now: Bearish flow and put demand skew risk reversal attractive.
Unlimited upside exposure if oil rallies sharply.

Top Plays

#1
Long Put
Buy 2026-07-02 $110.00 put
Buy July 2 $110 put to benefit from downside.
Why this play: Direct bearish play matching aggressive put flow with defined risk.
Debit: $2.45-$3.00
Max loss: $3.00
BE: $107.00
Mgmt: Exit if USO > $118.46 or near expiry.
Bearish traders accepting defined risk.
#2
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-02 $110.00/$105.00 put spread
Buy $110/$105 put spread for limited loss.
Why this play: Lower capital at risk while expressing bearish view.
Debit: $1.14-$1.40
Max loss: $1.40
BE: $108.60
Mgmt: Exit if USO > $118.46 or near expiry.
Traders wanting defined risk with less premium.
#3
Bearish Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-07-02 $110.00 put / sell 2026-07-02 $120.00 call
Buy $110 put, sell $120 call for zero cost.
Why this play: Fits bearish skew but carries unlimited risk.
Credit: $0.01-$0.02
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: $120.02
Mgmt: Close if USO > $118.46 or monitor gamma risk.
Aggressive traders seeking zero cost bearish exposure.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFUSO breaks below $110 support → Buy July 2 $110 put (rank 1)
IFUSO rallies to $118.46 resistance → Enter $110/$105 bear put spread (rank 2)
Adjustment Triggers
ADJUSO nears $100 gamma flip → Take partial profits on long puts; tighten stops
Exit Triggers
EXITUSO closes above $118.46 → Exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias ahead of 06/17 expiry. Key support at $110; a break triggers long put or bear put spread. Resistance at $118.46 invalidates bearish plays. Gamma flip at $100 may prompt profit-taking.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.