Home Options USOReports

USO

United States Oil FundClose $109.31EOD only

Max Pain

$115.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.16

2.0% from close

Price Gap

+5.69

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.49

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 25, 2026 close

USO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias with downside risk towards $100 and $98.56. High vol and negative gamma amplify moves. Resistance at $109-$112 caps upside.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot 5.8% below MP; +0.5 VIX 18 => 6.5. No override.

Supports: Negative dealer gamma, bearish flow, trending regime, high vol.
Conflicts: Spot far below MP, strong resistance overhead.

🔻Dealers short gamma; moves expected to amplify.

📉Bearish flow dominant; put skew elevated.

⚠️Spot 5.8% below MP; less urgency for pin.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated relative to typical range, consistent with recent selloff and higher VIX.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative gamma regime with dealers short gamma near $100 flip; trending gamma amplifies moves.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net bearish premium flow; put skew elevated.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot trading below Max Pain at $112, implying bearish bias.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative dealer gamma and bearish flow suggest sustained pressure; support levels at $100 and $98.56 define downside targets.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$101.76$109.20

Break below $101.76 opens $100 support.

Next 2 weeks

$98.56$112.41

Key support; gamma flip at $100.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $112 (2026-06-26); $109 (2026-07-01); $113 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 1w $101.76/$109.20

Support: $100.00 · $98.56 · $95.00

Resistance: $112.00 · $112.41

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,914 (5.2% below spot)

Structural: Support: $100 (put OI concentration), $98.56, $95. Resistance: $112, $112.41. Gamma flip ~$100.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-77.9M

DEX: +38.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,914 (5.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM gamma -$77.9M, dealers short gamma. Flip at ~$100 (5.2% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: USO IV likely elevated vs VIX given commodity vol; rich but justified.

Term structure: Likely backwardation in vol due to near-term event risk.

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling puts below $100 may be attractive given gamma flip.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$92.3M (bearish), P/C vol 1.24, OI 1.46, indicating strong put buying.

Directional prints: 44.3 put 104 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol/OI 5.1, high relative. Likely bought puts for protection, bearish. 44.7 put 104 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol/OI 4.5, high. Likely bought puts, bearish. 67 put 70 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol/OI 4.0, high. Way OTM put bought for crash hedge, bearish.

Unusual: 16.8 call 107 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 14.0, extremely high. Likely short call opening, bearish. 48.6 call 125 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol/OI 11.3, very high. Likely short call, bearish. 23.4 call 105 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 8.8, high. Likely short call, bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!Upside risk: Short squeeze if spot rallies above $109.

!Gamma risk: Dealers may exacerbate moves below $100.

!Event risk: Unexpected geopolitical events affecting oil.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $100.00/$96.00 put spread Why now: Strong put flow and bearish net premium support downside. Use defined-risk spread to cap losses.	Upside risk from short squeeze above $109; gamma acceleration below $100 may amplify moves.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $100.00 put Why now: Convex downside hedge with time for thesis to play out; strong put flow confirms bearish sentiment.	Time decay if move delayed; upside risk above $109.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $110.00/$115.00 call spread Why now: Sell call premium at resistance level to collect credit; defined risk via long tail.	Upside break above $112 could lead to losses; gamma risk if short squeeze.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-17 $100.00/$96.00 put spread

Buy $100/$96 put spread to profit from downside to $98.56 while capping losses.

Why this play: Best risk-reward with defined risk, supported by high put flow and bearish net premium.

Debit: $0.69-$0.85

Max loss: $0.85

BE: $99.15

Mgmt: Exit if spot rallies above resistance at $112; roll if approaching expiration.

Traders seeking defined risk and capital efficiency.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-31 $100.00 put

Buy $100 put to capture downside move with unlimited profit potential.

Why this play: Convex downside hedge for multi-week bearish thesis; strong put flow confirms sentiment.

Debit: $2.69-$3.29

Max loss: $3.29

BE: $96.71

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at $112; take partial profits on sharp drops.

Traders expecting large downside and willing to pay premium.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $110.00/$115.00 call spread

Sell $110/$115 call spread to profit from capped upside, collecting credit.

Why this play: Alternative to collect premium at resistance; defined risk but less direct bearish exposure.

Credit: $1.01-$1.24

Max loss: $3.76

BE: $111.24

Mgmt: Buy back if spot approaches $110; roll out to higher strikes if needed.

Traders expecting sideways to slightly lower price action.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot breaks below $100 support → Enter bear put spread: Buy 2026-07-17 $100/$96 put spread in entry range $0.69-$0.85

IFIF spot continues decline below $98.56 → Add long put: Buy 2026-07-31 $100 put at $2.69-$3.29

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot rallies above $112 invalidation level → Exit all bearish positions immediately

EXITIF spot reaches $95.00 target → Take profit on 50% of bear put spread and long put

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias on USO with downside to $98.56-$95.00. Key support $100 (gamma flip). Top play: bear put spread for defined risk. Invalidation above $112. High put flow supports bearish thesis.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.