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USO

United States Oil FundClose $114.87EOD only
Max Pain
$119.00
Next expiry Jun 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.88
5.1% from close
Price Gap
+4.13
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
48
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.57
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 18, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 18, 2026 close
USO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 22, 2026
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Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias driven by bearish flow, negative dealer gamma, and spot below max pain. High vol and trending gamma amplify downside momentum. OVX at elevated levels supports options premium.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 5, +2 for aligned bearish GEX/flow, -0.5 for spot 4.5% below MP, +1 for OVX elevated.
Supports: Bearish flow regime, negative dealer gamma ($-57.9M GEX), spot below $118 max pain, OVX elevated above typical range.
Conflicts: Spot within price range guardrails, relatively low vol for a bearish move, potential pin at $118.
📉Bearish Gamma: GEX -$57.9M amplifies downside moves
🎯Max Pain Pin: $118 resistance for expiries
🌊Vol Regime: High vol supports larger moves
⬇️Spot Below MP: Bearish signal with 4.5% distance

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV is High relative to typical range, supported by OVX at elevated levels and bearish flow. Options premium elevated, favoring directional strategies.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Gamma is Trending (negative) with $-57.9M GEX. Dealers are short gamma, requiring hedging that accelerates moves. Gamma flip at ~$100, ~11% below spot, providing a distant downside target.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Flow is Bearish with net premium likely negative. Put buying outweighs calls, consistent with bearish sentiment.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot at ~$113 is 4.5% below nearest max pain $118 for 2026-06-24 expiry, indicating bearish pressure and potential pin resistance.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Combination of bearish flow, negative gamma, and spot below MP suggests a multi-week downtrend, supported by extended price ranges.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$108.85$116.54
Testing lower guardrail $108.85
Next 1 week
$105.04$120.34
Potential break below $105 support
Next 2 weeks
$102.84$122.54
Aiming for gamma flip at ~$100

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $118 (2026-06-24); $120 (2026-06-26); $109 (2026-07-01)
EM guardrails: 2d $108.85/$116.54; 1w $105.04/$120.34
Support: $110.00 · $102.84
Resistance: $118.00 · $122.54
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,419 (11.3% below spot)
Structural: Support at ~$100 (gamma flip) and $102.84 (2-week low). Resistance at $118 (max pain) and $122.54 (2-week high). EM guardrails: 2d $108.85-$116.54, 1w $105.04-$120.34.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-57.9M

DEX: +37.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,419 (11.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma at -$57.9M GEX, with positive delta of +37.6M shares (DEX). Negative gamma implies amplifying moves. Gamma flip at ~$100 based on put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: USO IV is rich relative to OVX, as sector vol is elevated due to oil price uncertainty. High vol environment supports premium selling if direction is clear, but caution against IV crush.

Term structure: Term structure likely backwardated near events, but without specific data, assume higher vol for near-term expiries due to gamma and flow pressures.

Skew: Skew is likely bearish (puts expensive) given put flow and negative gamma. Opportunity: selling put spreads in near-dated expiries if confident in support levels, but significant risk of gap moves.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium bearish -$73.4M; put-call vol ratio 1.25, OI ratio 1.63.

Directional prints: 39.5 put 106 OTM 2026-12-18 — Vol 4x OI; likely bearish hedge, bought puts. 43.2 put 101 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol 2.5x OI; defensive puts, bearish bias.

Unusual: 47 call 200 OTM 2027-03-19 — Vol 8.8x OI; speculative long call, bullish if bought. 54 call 121 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 7.6x OI; high IV, likely bought near-term upside. 51.9 call 116 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 5.5x OI; call buying for rally, bullish read.

Risks & Catalysts

!Oil price shock from OPEC+ decisions
!Sudden reversal if spot reclaims $118
!IV crush if flow subsides
!Gamma squeeze if dealers forced to buy back short gamma position on a rally

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-07-24 $108.00/$100.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk downside play with net debit; high vol offers cheap puts.
Upside reversal if oil spikes above max pain; spread caps profit. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Wide spread (54%).
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-24 $127.00/$142.00 call spread
Why now: Elevated IV (OVX) makes call credit spreads attractive; defined risk.
Oil spike from OPEC+ could breach short call; limited upside cap. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Long putModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-08-21 $108.00 put
Why now: Convex payoff if downside continues; high vol lowers cost.
Time decay if spot stabilizes; OPEC+ surprise reversal. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

#1
Long Put
Buy 2026-08-21 $108.00 put
Buy 2026-08-21 $108 put. High IV lowers premium, offering leveraged bearish exposure.
Why this play: Convex downside with low cost due to high OVX; best captures momentum.
Debit: $5.09-$6.22
Max loss: $6.22
BE: $101.78
Mgmt: Stop-loss if USO reclaims $118; take profits on sharp drops. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Aggressive traders seeking highest payoff if selloff continues.
#2
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-07-24 $108.00/$100.00 put spread
Buy 2026-07-24 $108/$100 put spread. Maximum loss capped, still benefits from downside.
Why this play: Defined risk, cheap entry; suitable despite liquidity concerns.
Debit: $1.94-$2.37
Max loss: $2.37
BE: $105.63
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $118; hold to near expiry if bearish. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_put: Wide spread (54%).
Risk-conscious traders wanting limited capital at risk.
#3
Call Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $127.00/$142.00 call spread
Sell 2026-07-24 $127/$142 call spread. Collects premium from elevated IV.
Why this play: Elevated OVX supports premium selling; defined risk.
Credit: $1.23-$1.51
Max loss: $13.49
BE: $128.51
Mgmt: Close if USO surges past $127; monitor IV crush. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Income-oriented traders expecting muted upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot breaks below $110 support → THEN buy 2026-08-21 $108 put (long put)
IFIF spot stays below $118 max pain → THEN buy 2026-07-24 $108/$100 bear put spread
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot reclaims $118 → THEN close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias: spot below max pain, bearish flow, negative dealer gamma, elevated OVX. Key support $110, $102.84; resistance $118, $122.54. Top plays: long put (rank 1), bear put spread (rank 2), call credit spread (rank 3). Manage with stop-loss at $118.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.