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USO

United States Oil FundClose $111.26EOD only
Max Pain
$117.00
Next expiry Jun 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.35
2.1% from close
Price Gap
+5.74
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
1.57
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
USO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

USO trades below max pain with negative dealer gamma, but GEX/flow alignment and elevated VIX support a modest bullish bias. Near-term upside capped by resistance, while gamma flip at $100 poses downside risk. Thesis is moderate bullish with event-specific duration.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; -1 spot 8.4% below MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Supports: Dealer short gamma, positive delta, high VIX, GEX/flow aligned
Conflicts: Spot below MP, mixed flow, resistance 109.94-116
🟡Dealer short gamma (+$85.3M) amplifies directional moves
🔴Gamma flip ~$100, put OI 32k; break could trigger cascade
🟢Spot 8.4% below max pain $116; reversion offers 9% upside

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV is high vs typical range, driven by near-term expirations and dealer gamma, implying inflated premiums.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending regime with dealer net short gamma ($-85.3M); gamma flip ~$100, close to spot, amplifies moves.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Flow mixed: puts dominate open interest but recent flow aligns with dealers, supporting current direction.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot ~8.4% below max pain ($116), creating pull toward pin but risk of deviation.
Thesis duration: Event-specific — Multiple near-term expirations (6/24, 6/26, 7/1) and gamma flip level create event-driven volatility.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$104.86$107.72
Range 104.86-107.72; support at 100 flip, resistance 109.94
Next 1 week
$103.90$108.69
Range 103.90-108.69; max pain pull and negative gamma favor upside
Next 2 weeks
$102.64$109.94
Range 102.64-109.94; expiration pin and flow uncertainty cap conviction

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $116 (2026-06-24); $120 (2026-06-26); $110 (2026-07-01)
EM guardrails: 2d $104.86/$107.72; 1w $103.90/$108.69
Support: $102.64 · $100.00
Resistance: $109.94 · $116.00
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,315 (5.9% below spot)
Structural: Support 102.64-100.0; resistance 109.94-116.0; gamma flip ~$100; MP pins $116 (6/24), $120 (6/26), $110 (7/1); EM guardrails 2d 104.86-107.72, 1w 103.90-108.69.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-85.3M

DEX: +41.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,315 (5.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer net short gamma ($-85.3M) with positive delta (+41.3M shares); gamma flip near $100 (~5.9% below spot) from heavy put OI; hedging amplifies downside if 100 breaks.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV is rich relative to VIX (19), indicating elevated option premiums vs historical volatility, supporting seller positioning.

Term structure: Term structure backwardated with kinks at 6/24, 6/26, 7/1 expirations reflecting event risk.

Skew: Skew put-heavy; opportunity: sell put spreads at 100 strike to capture premium above gamma flip risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Negative net premium of -$99M with put/call vol ratio 1.16 and OI ratio 1.54, indicating bearish flow dominance.

Directional prints: 119.1 put 160 ITM 2026-07-10 — Vol 300 vs OI 123; likely bought due to net put bias. Preferred read: bearish bought. 45.7 put 103 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol 1686 vs OI 321; high vol/OI suggests new bearish positions. Preferred read: bought. 48.2 call 110 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol 2668 vs OI 777; likely sold as bearish call writing. Preferred read: sold.

Unusual: 12.7 call 106 ITM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 9.0, IV 12.7% anomalously low. Likely sold (bearish) or bought (bullish). Preferred: sold. 6.9 put 106 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 4.7, IV 6.9% extremely low. Likely bought (bearish) or sold (bullish). Preferred: bought. 42.1 put 105 OTM 2026-08-21 — Vol 401 vs OI 102; elevated vol/OI 3.9. Likely bought (bearish). Preferred: bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at $100: break triggers dealer selling, accelerating downside
!Spot 8.4% below MP: risk of pin failure and extension away
!High vol post-event collapse: premiums compress, reversing bullish bias
!Mixed flow lacks catalyst for sustained move

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-17 $100.00/$105.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish flow alignment, elevated vol supports debit spread.
Gamma flip at $100, resistance caps upside.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-17 $100.00/$97.00 put spread
Why now: Elevated vol, defined risk, bearish flow as contrarian.
Break below $100 triggers gamma selling.

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-07-17 $100.00/$105.00 call spread
Bought call spread profiting from moderate upside.
Why this play: Direct bullish alignment with thesis; elevated vol supports debit spread; better reward/risk.
Debit: $2.70-$3.30
Max loss: $3.30
BE: $103.30
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or below $102.64.
Traders seeking defined-risk bullish exposure near-term.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $100.00/$97.00 put spread
Sells put spread collecting premium, betting above short strike.
Why this play: Contrarian bullish using elevated vol; defined risk; wider safety margin.
Credit: $0.57-$0.70
Max loss: $2.30
BE: $99.30
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or below $97.
Traders preferring theta decay with low assignment risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot holds above 102.64 support with bullish momentum → Enter USO-1 bull call spread (100/105) at $2.70-$3.30
IFIF spot dips near 100 gamma flip but holds above $100 → Enter USO-2 put credit spread (100/97) at $0.57-$0.70
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot closes below $100 gamma flip → Close all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

Moderate bullish bias with near-term upside, supported by elevated vol and GEX alignment. Key support at 102.64, gamma flip at $100. Prefer bull call spread above support; put credit spread as adjustment near gamma floor. Exit below $100.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.