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USO

United States Oil FundClose $121.21EOD only

Max Pain

$132.00

Next expiry Jun 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.30

2.7% from close

Price Gap

+10.79

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.68

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 15, 2026 close

USO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 16, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias near-term due to negative GEX, bearish flow, and spot below max pain. Dealer long delta and gamma flip at $100 provide support. High vol regime favors premium selling.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow, -1 spot distance, +1 VIX.

Supports: Bearish flow, negative GEX, high vol, spot below MP.
Conflicts: Dealer long delta, gamma flip support, VIX moderate.

📉Negative GEX and bearish flow align for downside.

📈Dealer long delta (+41M shares) provides support.

⚠️Gamma flip at $100 key; break accelerates trend.

💸High vol regime favors premium selling strategies.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High IV vs typical range, driven by oil volatility.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending; GEX -80.8M, flip near $100.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish net premium flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain, testing lower levels.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near monthly expiry with concentrated put OI.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$112.79$118.15

Test lower guardrail $112.79.

Next 1 week

$108.99$121.96

Risk to support $106.22.

Next 2 weeks

$106.22$124.72

Range-bound; OPEX pin action.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $129 (2026-06-17); $125 (2026-06-18); $124 (2026-06-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $112.79/$118.15; 1w $108.99/$121.96

Support: $106.22

Resistance: $124.72

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,754 (13.4% below spot)

Structural: Support $106.22, resistance $124.72, gamma flip ~$100 from put OI concentration 32,754 contracts 13.4% below spot.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-80.8M

DEX: +41.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,754 (13.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealers net short gamma -$80.8M, long delta +41.2M shares; gamma flip at ~$100.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated vs VIX 16; rich for selling.

Term structure: Upward sloping with event kinks near expiries.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider selling puts at gamma flip strike.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$112M, P/C vol ratio 1.79, OI ratio 1.65, bearish.

Directional prints: 47.1 put 113 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 12.9, likely bought, bearish. 50.6 put 112 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 7.7, likely bought, bearish. 47 put 105 OTM 2026-07-31 — Vol/OI 5.6, likely bought, bearish.

Unusual: 49.6 call 125 OTM 2026-06-24 — Vol/OI 15.9, high; likely call buying contrary to flow, speculative. 88.4 call 190 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol/OI 5.7, far OTM, high IV; likely sold calls or long shots. 65.4 put 80 OTM 2026-07-24 — Vol/OI 5.0, deep OTM put; likely bought as tail hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Crude price shock.

!Gamma squeeze if spot holds.

!Macro volatility spike.

!Roll cost near expiry.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-02 $110.00/$105.00 put spread Why now: Near-term DTE aligns with bearish bias; high vol environment supports put premiums.	Max loss is debit paid; vol crush hurts longs; direction wrong if spot rallies.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-02 $123.00/$130.50 call spread Why now: Spot below max pain; bearish flow supports call selling; defined risk limits tail.	Upside gap risk; early assignment; vol expansion hurts short calls. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-02 $110.00 put Why now: Negative GEX and bearish prints suggest downside; long put captures move with defined risk.	Theta decay; vol crush if spot trades flat or up; requires timing.

Top Plays

Bearish Call Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $123.00/$130.50 call spread

Sell call vertical to profit from downside with defined risk.

Why this play: Sells premium in high vol; aligns with bearish flow and thesis.

Credit: $0.96-$1.18

Max loss: $6.32

BE: $124.18

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaches $124.72. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Open interest below 25.

Premium sellers with bearish tilt.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-02 $110.00 put

Buy put to profit from expected decline due to negative GEX.

Why this play: Direct bearish bet with good liquidity; captures downside.

Debit: $2.36-$2.89

Max loss: $2.89

BE: $107.11

Mgmt: Stop at $124.72; roll if vol collapses.

Directional traders wanting unlimited upside.

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $110.00/$105.00 put spread

Buy put spread for leveraged bearish move with capped loss.

Why this play: Near-term DTE fits bias; defined risk and cost.

Debit: $1.05-$1.29

Max loss: $1.29

BE: $108.71

Mgmt: Close at expiry or if spot reverses.

Traders with specific downside target.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies above $120 with declining momentum → Sell 2026-07-02 $123/$130.5 call spread for $0.96-$1.18 credit

IFSpot breaks below $106.22 support on volume → Buy 2026-07-02 $110 put for $2.36-$2.89

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $124.72 resistance → Close all bearish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias via negative GEX and flow; high vol favors premium selling. Key support $106.22, resistance $124.72, gamma flip $100. Top plays: Bearish Call Spread (credit), Long Put, Bear Put Spread. Invalidate above $124.72; manage vol collapse.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 16, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.