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USO

United States Oil FundClose $125.43EOD only
Max Pain
$134.00
Next expiry Jun 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.96
4.8% from close
Price Gap
+8.57
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
1.65
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 12, 2026 close
USO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish near-term bias. Negative GEX (-$105M) and bearish flow regime signal dealer hedging that pressures spot lower. Spot at ~$126 sits below max pain ($133), suggesting continued decline toward 1w support $119.48 and 2w support $115.88. High vol amplifies moves.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 5 +2 (GEX/flow aligned) -1 (spot 5.7% from MP) +1 (VIX 18) = 7.0. Strong alignment between GEX and flow supports bearish view.
Supports: Negative GEX (-$105M); bearish flow regime; spot below max pain ($133).
Conflicts: DEX +37.4M shares (long delta) may provide support; VIX ~18 elevates volatility premium.
🐻Negative GEX and bearish flow reinforce downside bias.
📍Spot at ~$126 below max pain $133.
⚠️High vol regime increases risk of sharp moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol with VIX at 17.68 and USO regime set to High. Elevated implied vols expected.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma with GEX -$105.1M (negative), indicating dealer hedging for long puts, amplifying downside.
Flow Regime
Bearish
Bearish flow as per regime classification, consistent with net put premium.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot below max pain pins: $133 (6/12), $134 (6/17), $125 (6/18). Pressure to drift lower toward support.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained negative GEX and bearish flow regime suggest continued downward trend beyond near-term expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$119.48$131.39
Favor lower half; resistance at $133 MP.
Next 2 weeks
$115.88$134.98
Support at $115.88; break below $119 extends to $115.88.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $133 (2026-06-12); $134 (2026-06-17); $125 (2026-06-18)
EM guardrails: 1w $119.48/$131.39
Support: $115.88
Resistance: $133.00 · $134.98
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,892 (20.3% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pins: $133 (6/12), $134 (6/17), $125 (6/18); 1w EM guardrails $119.48/$131.39; support $115.88, resistance $133/$134.98; gamma flip ~$100.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-105.1M

DEX: +37.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,892 (20.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$105.1M (negative), DEX +37.4M shares (long delta), gamma flip at ~$100 based on put OI concentration 20.3% below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: USO IV likely rich vs VIX ~18 given high vol regime, consistent with commodity volatility premium.

Term structure: Likely contango typical for oil ETFs, but short-dated vols elevated due to negative gamma hedging.

Skew: Put skew elevated; selling put spreads at support ($115) offers premium decay if spot stabilizes.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$58M, put/call vol ratio 1.30 and OI ratio 1.65, confirming bearish flow.

Directional prints: 51.5 put 118 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 27.1, heavy bought put for 6/17; bearish. 26.1 put 124 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 17.8, aggressive bought put; bearish.

Unusual: 64.1 put 110 OTM 2026-06-17 — Vol/OI 6.0, further OTM put; bearish. 50.2 call 133 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 6.1, isolated call buying; mixed. 53.5 call 148 OTM 2026-10-16 — Vol/OI 8.0, long-dated call; bullish but small.

Risks & Catalysts

!DEX long delta (+37.4M shares) could buffer selling pressure.
!Gamma flip at ~$100 if spot drops, shifting dealer hedging.
!OPEC supply news could reverse bearish stance.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadStrong
Buy 2026-07-02 $125.00/$120.00 put spread
Why now: Defined-risk bear put spread with high probability of profit as spot declines toward support levels; OTM strikes align with bearish outlook.
OPEC supply news could reverse; DEX long delta ($37M shares) may slow decline.
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-07-10 $118.00/$110.00 put spread
Why now: Negative GEX and bearish flow imply continued decline; defined-risk downside exposure with favorable risk/reward.
Spot rallies above short put; spread expires worthless.
Call credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-07-10 $137.00/$152.00 call spread
Why now: Spot below max pain and bearish GEX suggests resistance above; call credit spread profits from downside or sideways.
Sharp bullish reversal due to OPEC supply news or gamma flip. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (80%).
Bearish risk reversalConditional
Buy 2026-07-10 $118.00 put / sell 2026-07-10 $137.00 call
Why now: High IV allows selling call premium to fund put purchase; aligns with bearish stance and defined cost.
Unlimited upside risk if sold call is naked; requires careful strike selection or wider wings.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread $125/$120
Buy 2026-07-02 $125.00/$120.00 put spread
Buy 2026-07-02 $125/$120 put spread to profit from expected decline.
Why this play: Best fit: defined-risk, high probability, OTM strikes align with bearish thesis and support levels.
Debit: $2.07-$2.53
Max loss: $2.53
BE: $122.47
Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max gain or at $120 breach; stop loss if spot above $133.
Traders seeking defined risk with high probability of profit.
#2
Bear Put Spread $118/$110
Buy 2026-07-10 $118.00/$110.00 put spread
Buy 2026-07-10 $118/$110 put spread for asymmetric downside exposure.
Why this play: Higher reward/risk ratio if larger drop occurs; still defined risk.
Debit: $1.70-$2.07
Max loss: $2.07
BE: $115.93
Mgmt: Manage at 50% gain or if spot approaches $118; stop loss above $133.
Traders expecting a sharper decline toward $115 support.
#3
Bearish Risk Reversal $118p/$137c
Buy 2026-07-10 $118.00 put / sell 2026-07-10 $137.00 call
Buy $118 put, sell $137 call to express bearish view with minimal upfront cost.
Why this play: Low cost, funded by call premium; unlimited loss on short call but high IV helps.
Credit: $0.23-$0.28
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: $137.28
Mgmt: Call leg may be rolled if spot rallies; put leg as hedge.
Aggressive traders comfortable with unlimited loss on short call.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFUSO spot breaks below $125.00 → Buy 2026-07-02 $125/$120 put spread for $2.30 debit max
IFUSO spot breaks below $118.00 → Buy 2026-07-10 $118/$110 put spread for $1.90 debit max
IFUSO spot stays below $130.00 → Execute bearish risk reversal: buy 2026-07-10 $118 put, sell $137 call for $0.25 credit
Exit Triggers
EXITUSO spot rallies above $133.00 → Close all bearish spreads and risk reversal to limit loss
EXITUSO spot reaches $120.00 → Close $125/$120 bear put spread for profit
EXITUSO spot reaches $110.00 → Close $118/$110 bear put spread for profit
EXITUSO spot drops below $118.00 → Close risk reversal to lock in put gain

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias with negative GEX and spot below max pain ($133). Key support at $115.88, resistance $133/$134.98. High vol favors bear put spreads for defined risk; aggressive traders may use risk reversal. Manage invalidation above $133.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.