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USO

United States Oil FundClose $131.30EOD only

Max Pain

$133.00

Next expiry Jun 10, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.22

2.5% from close

Price Gap

+1.70

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.71

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 9, 2026 close

USO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

USO pinning near $130 with high vol and mixed flow. Dealer gamma supports near-term range, but negative equity correlation and spot above MP favor slight bearish drift. Key levels: $129-$139 bound moves.

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

Base 5: -1 GEX/flow contradict, +1 GEX pinning, -0.5 spot distance = net 4.5. Pinning drives.

Supports: Dealer long gamma (+$25M GEX), $130 pin, EM guardrails $129-$139
Conflicts: High vol, mixed flow, -equity correlation, spot above MP

📌Max pain $130 (6/10) and $135 (6/12) pin price

⚠️Gamma flip ~$100 if spot drops 25%+

📊High VIX (22.2) and USO IV near 40% imply wide swings

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol; VIX 22.2, USO IV ~40% (84th %ile vs 1yr).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning; $+25M GEX, $130 max pain.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed; P/C unclear.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Above MP; 3.3% above $130.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly expiry 6/10, 6/12 drives near-term pinning.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$129.19$139.41

Pinning at $130, guardrails $129-$139

Next 1 week

$125.95$142.65

High vol, spot above MP favor drift to $125-$130

Next 2 weeks

$122.03$146.58

Break $122 triggers gamma flip

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $130 (2026-06-10); $135 (2026-06-12); $133 (2026-06-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $129.19/$139.41; 1w $125.95/$142.65

Support: $130.00 · $122.03

Resistance: $146.58

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,858 (25.5% below spot)

Structural: Support $130 (MP, gamma), $122 (2w low). Resistance $139 (2d high), $146.58 (2w high). Flip ~$100.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+25.0M

DEX: +36.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,858 (25.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net long $+25M GEX; DEX +36.4M. Deep put OI at $100 (30.8k, 25.5% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: USO IV ~40% (84th %ile) is rich vs VIX 22.2 and vs 1yr avg 32%. Elevated IV makes premium selling attractive but risky.

Term structure: Near-term contango: Jun9 IV 40%, Jul2 IV 36%. Event kink before OPEC+ meeting on 6/10.

Skew: Put skew steep (25-delta 45% vs 35% for calls). Opportunity: sell upside calls in Jun9 expiry, as resistance $139 caps upside.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium negative (-$28.7M) with P/C vol ratio 0.64 (call-heavy) but OI ratio 1.63 (put-heavy), indicating aggressive put buying or call selling in premium.

Directional prints: 10.2 put 133 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 9.8x; 3129 vol vs 320 OI. Likely bought, bearish bet on oil decline. 7.8 put 134 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 7.9x; 1436 vol vs 181 OI. Likely bought, adds to bearish flow.

Unusual: 10.2 put 133 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 9.8x; extreme relative volume on deep OTM put. Preferred read: bought. 65 call 145 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 7.3x; high IV 65%. Likely bought as lottery, but uncertain given net premium. 7.8 put 134 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 7.9x; aggressive put buying. Preferred read: bought.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $129 triggers selloff to $122

!Gamma flip at $100 if 25% decline

!Equity correlation drags USO lower

!Max pain fails, gap above $139 on supply news

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-26 $133.00/$130.00 put spread Why now: Dealer gamma supports range but net flow bearish; put buying at 133 confirms resistance.	Range holds; time decay hurts long premium; IV crush if moves slow.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-02 $138.00/$140.00 call spread Why now: Call-heavy flow met by put buying; spot above dealer gamma midpoint suggests limited upside.	Upside breakout above 140 due to oil spike; quick loss if IV expands.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-06-26 $133.00/$130.00 put spread

OTM put spread to profit from expected decline to $130 with defined risk.

Why this play: Directly follows bearish flow and thesis; put buying confirms resistance.

Debit: $1.44-$1.76

Max loss: $1.76

BE: $131.24

Mgmt: Exit if USO breaks above $139 or hold to expiration.

Traders expecting moderate downside, defined risk profile.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $138.00/$140.00 call spread

Sell call spread to benefit from capped upside based on gamma and flow.

Why this play: Captures premium from limited upside, but less conviction than put spread.

Credit: $0.20-$0.25

Max loss: $1.75

BE: $138.25

Mgmt: Manage if USO approaches $138; roll or close.

Traders seeking income with bearish bias but lower conviction.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf USO trades at or below $133.00 and above $130.00 → Enter Bear Put Spread: Buy 2026-06-26 $133/$130 put spread for $1.44-$1.76.

IFIf USO rallies to $138.00 → Sell Call Credit Spread: Sell 2026-07-02 $138/$140 call spread for $0.20-$0.25.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf USO breaks above $139.00 → Exit Call Credit Spread.

EXITIf USO breaks above $139.00 → Exit Bear Put Spread.

Tactical Summary

USO slightly bearish near $130 support. Preferred trade: Bear put spread on weakness to $133. Alternative: Sell call credit spread on rally to $138. Key invalidation above $139 for bearish bias.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.