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USO

United States Oil FundClose $131.30EOD only

Max Pain

$133.00

Next expiry Jun 10, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.22

2.5% from close

Price Gap

+1.70

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.71

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 9, 2026 close

USO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias driven by negative market context (SPY -0.29%, QQQ -1.15%), high vol (VIX 20), and spot below max pain $133. Negative dealer gamma (-12.6M) supports downside momentum toward $128 support.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Strong GEX/flow alignment (+2), spot 1.3% below MP (+0.5), elevated VIX (+0.5) boost base 5 to 8.

Supports: Negative SPY/QQQ, spot below MP, dealer gamma negative, high vol.
Conflicts: Mixed flow, high vol could mean reversal, gamma flip far at $100.

📉Spot below max pain $133 – bearish pin.

⚡GEX -12.6M – dealer hedging amplifies downside.

⚠️High vol regime (VIX 20) – stay nimble.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated at VIX 20, oil vol likely high due to macro uncertainty; supports fear pricing.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -12.6M, trending regime suggests momentum continuation; gamma flip ~$100 (23.8% below spot) – distant.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed net premium, put/call ratio unclear; broader market weakness tips bearish.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below max pain $133 (Jun10 expiry); downside bias until pin tested.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Proximity to Jun10 max pain expiry and negative dealer gamma favor directional move toward support $128.08 within 2 days.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$128.08$134.52

Testing lower bound $128.08 on macro weakness.

Next 1 week

$123.08$139.53

Extended downside to $123.08 support.

Next 2 weeks

$119.05$143.55

Potential bounce at $119.05 but capped at $133 resistance.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $133 (2026-06-10); $136 (2026-06-12); $131 (2026-06-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $128.08/$134.52; 1w $123.08/$139.53

Support: $119.05

Resistance: $133.00 · $143.55

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,938 (23.8% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $133 (Jun10), $136 (Jun12), $131 (Jun17). EM guardrails: 2d $128.08/$134.52, 1w $123.08/$139.53. Support $119.05, resistance $133. Gamma flip $100.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-12.6M

DEX: +34.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 30,938 (23.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$12.6M (bearish), DEX +34.9M shares (long delta), gamma flip ~$100 (23.8% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Tick IV rich vs VIX at 20; implied vol elevated, reflecting fear premium in oil.

Term structure: Likely backwardation near Jun10 expiry; contango further out. Event kink at expiry.

Skew: Put skew elevated; opportunity in put spreads (e.g., 128/125) for cheap downside.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium of $49.1M; call volume dominates (P/C vol 0.80) but put OI higher (1.71).

Directional prints: 48.4 call 135 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 9.9, 7772 vs 788 OI; likely aggressive buying; preferred read: bullish for near-term upside. 45.8 call 132 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 16.7, 3277 vs 196 OI; extreme volume suggests new bullish positions; preferred read: bullish.

Unusual: 45.8 call 132 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 16.7x, indicating unusual call activity; likely bought for near-term rally. 48.4 call 135 OTM 2026-06-10 — Vol/OI 9.9x, high relative to OI; suggests aggressive call buying. 70 put 111 OTM 2026-06-18 — Elevated IV 70% and vol/OI 4.6; unusual put activity with high premium; could be hedging.

Risks & Catalysts

!Unexpected OPEC+ supply cut

!Oil inventory drawdown

!VIX spike reversal crushing vol premium

!Dealer gamma flip if spot drops to $100

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-26 $128.50/$123.00 put spread Why now: High put premium and bearish flow support near-term downside; defined-risk debit spread aligns with event-specific duration.	Unexpected OPEC cut or oil drawdown could reverse; vol spike hurts short put. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (55%).
Long put	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-26 $125.00 put Why now: High implied vol and bearish bias make long puts attractive for convexity and defined risk.	Time decay if move is slow; vol collapse could hurt even if direction correct.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-06-26 $144.00/$154.00 call spread Why now: Bearish regime and high call premium provide income with defined risk; call spread caps upside.	Sharp rally above short strike due to OPEC surprise; gamma risk near expiry. Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (69%).; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Top Plays

Long Put

Buy 2026-06-26 $125.00 put

Direct downside exposure with defined risk and high convexity.

Why this play: Best convexity and liquidity for bearish event-driven move.

Debit: $2.53-$3.10

Max loss: $3.10

BE: $121.90

Mgmt: Exit at 50% profit or hold to expiration near $125.

Aggressive traders seeking maximum downside leverage.

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-06-26 $128.50/$123.00 put spread

Debit spread targeting $128.50–$123.00 downside zone.

Why this play: Cheaper than outright put but defined risk, though liquidity concern.

Debit: $1.94-$2.37

Max loss: $2.37

BE: $126.13

Mgmt: Sell at 50% profit or let expire OTM. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Wide spread (55%).

Traders wanting defined risk and lower cost.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-26 $144.00/$154.00 call spread

Bearish call credit spread on resistance $144.

Why this play: Premium collection with defined risk, but less direct downside play.

Credit: $0.81-$1.00

Max loss: $9.00

BE: $145.00

Mgmt: Buy back at 50% of credit or let expire OTM. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_call: Wide spread (69%).; long_call: Open interest below 25.

Income-focused traders in bearish trend.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF USO price breaks below $132.50 (near gamma flip) with volume, THEN buy 2026-06-26 $125.00 put in entry range $2.53-$3.10. → Long Put entry: buy 125 put at limit $2.80.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF long put reaches 50% profit (mark-to-market ~$1.40), THEN sell 50% of position. → Take partial profit on long put.

Exit Triggers

EXITIF USO price rallies above $133.00 (invalidation level), THEN close long put immediately. → Exit long put.

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term bias with downside target $128. Long put (rank 1) offers best convexity and liquidity. Entry on break below $133; manage with 50% profit take and hard stop above $133. Monitor oil inventory and OPEC+ risks.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.