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USO

United States Oil FundClose $140.92EOD only
Max Pain
$143.00
Next expiry May 27, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.12
7.9% from close
Price Gap
+2.08
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
20
Low premium
P/C OI
1.75
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects USO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
USO Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

USO bears downside pressure below max pain $143. Dealer short gamma and spot 4.2% below MP amplify moves. Elevated vol suggests continued volatility. Lean bearish near term with support at $126.33.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
Base 5; +2 GEX/flow alignment (strong dealer short gamma and put flow); -0.5 spot 4.2% below MP; +1 VIX 17 supportive of options.
Supports: Dealer short gamma, bearish put flow, spot below max pain, high vol regime
Conflicts: Mixed flow (some call buying), positive DEX (+34.2M shares), $143 resistance as magnet
🪤Dealer short gamma traps spot near $143 pin; break below $133.25 accelerates
📉Spot 4.2% below MP; max pain $143 as ceiling
⚠️Vol regime High; IV rich vs VIX 17, risk of vol spike

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High IV regime above normal; implied vol elevated reflecting risk premium and energy uncertainties.
Gamma Regime
Trending
Trending gamma with negative net GEX (-$6.2M); dealer short gamma in trending market increases spot velocity.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow with concentrated put OI at $100 (27% below spot) suggesting downside hedging; net premium neutral.
Spot vs Max Pain
Below
Spot trading below max pain ($143) and near 2d range low, indicating bearish pressure with pin risk at $143.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Oil sensitive to macro/supply; high vol and structural dealer positioning suggest prolonged directional move over weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$133.25$140.75
Range $133.25-$140.75; resistance at $143, breakdown below $133.25 targets $126.33
Next 1 week
$126.33$147.68
Support $126.33; if broken, move to $121.4
Next 2 weeks
$121.40$152.60
Extended down to $121.4 support; resistance $152.6

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $143 (2026-05-27); $140 (2026-05-29); $147 (2026-06-03)
EM guardrails: 2d $133.25/$140.75; 1w $126.33/$147.68
Support: $121.40
Resistance: $143.00 · $152.60
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,835 (27.0% below spot)
Structural: Max pain pins: $143 (5/27), $140 (5/29), $147 (6/3). EM guardrails: 2d $133.25/$140.75; 1w $126.33/$147.68. Support $121.4, resistance $143, $152.6. Gamma flip ~$100.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-6.2M

DEX: +34.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 32,835 (27.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer net short gamma ($-6.2M GEX) with long delta (+34.2M DEX). Gamma flip near $100 (put OI concentration 32,835 contracts). Short gamma amplifies moves, especially breaks below $133.25.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: USO IV elevated vs VIX 17; rich vol due to energy risk premium and regime classification.

Term structure: No specific data; typical oil contango assumed with backwardation risk near expiry.

Skew: Put skew steep with deep OTM puts bid; consider bear put spreads for risk-defined downside.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$3.64M; P/C vol 0.91 (calls lead), OI 1.76 (puts dominate); mixed bearish

Directional prints: 66.1 put 125 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 6148 vs OI 1484 (4.1x); heavy put buying, possibly bearish hedge 57.6 put 127 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol 744 vs OI 162 (4.6x); aggressive put buying for downside

Unusual: 53.7 call 144 OTM 2026-05-27 — Vol 1089 vs OI 146 (7.5x); extremely high call activity, likely bought 60.3 call 135 ITM 2026-05-27 — Vol 1005 vs OI 138 (7.3x); heavy OTM call buying 60.7 call 185 OTM 2026-10-16 — Vol 782 vs OI 115 (6.8x); long-dated OTM call speculation

Risks & Catalysts

!OPEC+ supply changes could reverse bearish thesis
!Macro risk from recession or geopolitical oil supply disruption
!Vol expansion from unexpected events increases option premium
!Spot pin to $143 resistance invalidates downside move

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bear put spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-18 $140.00/$135.00 put spread
Why now: Flow shows heavy put buying; high vol favors defined-risk debit spread. Use 140/135 spread to capture bearish move with limited risk.
If oil rallies above 140, spread loses value; time decay hurts; vol crush could reduce profit.
Long putModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-18 $140.00 put
Why now: Heavy put flow at 125 suggests hedging; long put captures move to support $126.
If oil reverses due to OPEC+ supply change, put loses value; premium decay accelerates.

Top Plays

#1
Bear Put Spread
Buy 2026-06-18 $140.00/$135.00 put spread
Buy 140/135 put spread to profit from downside to support.
Why this play: Defined risk, lower cost, suits high vol and bearish bias.
Debit: $2.54-$3.11
Max loss: $3.11
BE: $136.89
Mgmt: Exit if USO rises above 143 or profit target hit.
Traders seeking limited risk exposure to bearish move.
#2
Long Put
Buy 2026-06-18 $140.00 put
Buy 140 put to capture larger move to 126 support.
Why this play: Higher payoff potential if downside materializes.
Debit: $9.34-$11.41
Max loss: $11.41
BE: $128.59
Mgmt: Consider stop-loss at 143; take partial profits near 126.
Aggressive traders with higher risk tolerance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF USO price breaks below $126.33 support with daily close confirmation → THEN buy 2026-06-18 140/135 put spread at net debit 2.54-3.11 (bear_put_spread_1)
Exit Triggers
EXITIF USO price reclaims $126.33 and holds above → THEN close bear put spread to limit loss

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term. Key support $126.33. Enter bear put spread 140/135 on break below with daily close. Exit if price recovers above $126.33.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.