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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $392.61EOD only

Max Pain

$400.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$15.53

4.0% from close

Price Gap

+7.39

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.41

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

TSM Flow Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer flow report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +1 net premium flipped to bearish; +1 P/C volume ratio >1.5; +1 massive OTM put block; -0.5 spot at max pain; -0.5 positive GEX pinning

Watch next session: $330 put OI reaction to spot moves; Follow-through in $280 put block (roll or new hedge?); Spot's ability to hold above $337.50 max pain

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$821K (effectively neutral, but top flows are bearish)

P/C volume ratio: 1.59 — put-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 1.27 — moderate put skew in positioning

A sharp reversal from last week's bullish call dominance. Today's flow is mixed but leans bearish, with a significant put/call volume skew and a massive, multi-million dollar OTM put block dominating premium flow. This suggests institutional hedging or downside positioning is overriding the positive gamma pinning regime.

Notable Prints

TSM 10/16/26 $280 Put

Vol: 10,020

OI: 966

Vol/OI: 10.4x

IV: 46.1%

Notional: ~$19.6M (est. premium ~$1.96k/contract)

Intent: Large-scale downside hedge or speculative put buying

Dual read: Bought (bearish hedge) or sold (income)

Read-through: This is the dominant flow of the day, accounting for nearly all the net negative premium at the $280 strike (-$19.6M). The 10x volume/OI ratio and ~$20M notional value point to a new, institutional-sized position. The $280 strike is -17.4% from spot and 197 days out, suggesting a long-term protective hedge against a significant correction, not a near-term directional bet.

TSM 4/10/26 $240 Put

Vol: 1,761

OI: 769

Vol/OI: 2.3x

IV: 93.6%

Notional: ~$3.3M (est. premium ~$1.9k/contract)

Intent: Speculative OTM put buying or earnings hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (income)

Read-through: High IV (93.6%) and 8-day expiry ahead of the 4/16 earnings date. This is a high-risk, high-reward bet on a dramatic post-earnings drop (-29.2%). The size suggests it's likely a speculative purchase rather than a sale for premium. This complements the longer-dated $280P hedge with a more aggressive, near-term tail-risk bet.

TSM 4/24/26 $335 Call

Vol: 1,142

OI: 392

Vol/OI: 2.9x

IV: 48.3%

Notional: ~$3.9M (est. premium ~$3.4k/contract)

Intent: Near-term directional call buying or call spread leg

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (covered call/resistance)

Read-through: This is the most significant bullish counter-flow. The $335 strike is just below spot, and the premium flow at this strike is strongly positive (+$3.9M net). This could be a bullish bet for a bounce off the $330-$335 support zone or part of a more complex structure (e.g., a call spread selling a higher strike). It provides some offset to the bearish put flow.

TSM 7/17/26 $430 Call

Vol: 878

OI: 295

Vol/OI: 3.0x

IV: 45.0%

Notional: ~$2.8M (est. premium ~$3.2k/contract)

Intent: Long-dated OTM call buying

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (resistance)

Read-through: A +26.8% OTM call with 106 DTE. The positive net premium at the $380 and $400 strikes suggests this flow is likely bought, representing a long-term bullish breakout bet. However, its notional is dwarfed by the $280 put block, making it a secondary theme.

TSM 5/15/26 $120 Put

Vol: 873

OI: 302

Vol/OI: 2.9x

IV: 146.1%

Notional: ~$2.1M (est. premium ~$2.4k/contract)

Intent: Extreme OTM tail-risk hedge or structured trade leg

Dual read: Bought (catastrophic hedge) or sold (premium sale)

Read-through: Extremely high IV (146%) and a -64.6% strike. This is a continuation of the deep OTM put activity noted last week. The size and extreme nature suggest it's likely a persistent, cheap portfolio hedge against a black swan event, not a new directional view. It's signal of caution, not a near-term price target.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Modest activity at $335 (April) and $430 (July) calls. The aggressive $340-$370 call buying from last week has paused.

Put additions: Major new hedge at the $280 Oct'26 put. Additional speculative/hedging puts at $240 (April) and deep OTM $120.

GEX/DEX consistency: No — flow and GEX are in conflict. Positive GEX (+$5.9M) suggests a pinning regime near $330, which should suppress volatility and promote mean reversion. However, the bearish put flow (especially the $280P block) indicates institutions are actively hedging against a breakdown, testing the stabilizing effect of dealer gamma.

OI clusters: Major Gamma/Resistance: $330 (Call OI: 16,820; Put OI: 19,431+13,290). This is the key gamma flip and pin zone. Major Call Walls: $300 (46.7K), $370 (33.5K), $400 (14.4K). Major Put Walls: $330 (32.7K total), $175 (16.8K), $340 (13.4K).

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence. The $280P block is a clear, large-scale hedge. The $240P and $120P activity adds to a layered hedging strategy across timeframes. This contrasts with last week's offensive call buying.

Max pain context: Spot ($339.04) is essentially at the aggregate max pain (~$338). This creates a gravitational pull, but the new bearish flow is betting against this pin holding.

Signal vs Noise

~The $115 Call and $180 Call with multi-million net positive premium are noise — these are deep ITM strikes likely used for financing, box spreads, or other arbitrage, not directional bets.

~The $470 Put with -$3.3M net premium is likely a leg of a put spread or part of a more complex multi-leg trade, given its distance from spot.

~Some of the weekly put volume (e.g., $337.5P 4/10) could be closing trades or part of delta-hedging adjustments by market makers, given the high gamma environment.

Key Conclusions

🔄Flow regime flipped from bullish to bearish/hedging. The massive $280 Oct put block (-$19.6M) defines the session.

🛡️Institutions are layering downside protection ($280P, $240P, $120P), suggesting increased caution or portfolio hedging.

⚔️Battle between Gamma (pinning at $330) and Flow (bearish hedging). Watch for a break of the $330-$337.5 support zone to validate the flow.

🎯Spot at max pain creates a stalemate. The next move will be signaled by which side's flow persists: calls defending $335 or puts accumulating at $330.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.