TSM Flow Report
Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026
Flow Verdict
Watch next session: $330 put OI reaction to spot moves; Follow-through in $280 put block (roll or new hedge?); Spot's ability to hold above $337.50 max pain
Flow Summary
Net premium: +$821K (effectively neutral, but top flows are bearish)
P/C volume ratio: 1.59 — put-dominant volume
P/C OI ratio: 1.27 — moderate put skew in positioning
Notable Prints
Read-through: This is the dominant flow of the day, accounting for nearly all the net negative premium at the $280 strike (-$19.6M). The 10x volume/OI ratio and ~$20M notional value point to a new, institutional-sized position. The $280 strike is -17.4% from spot and 197 days out, suggesting a long-term protective hedge against a significant correction, not a near-term directional bet.
Read-through: High IV (93.6%) and 8-day expiry ahead of the 4/16 earnings date. This is a high-risk, high-reward bet on a dramatic post-earnings drop (-29.2%). The size suggests it's likely a speculative purchase rather than a sale for premium. This complements the longer-dated $280P hedge with a more aggressive, near-term tail-risk bet.
Read-through: This is the most significant bullish counter-flow. The $335 strike is just below spot, and the premium flow at this strike is strongly positive (+$3.9M net). This could be a bullish bet for a bounce off the $330-$335 support zone or part of a more complex structure (e.g., a call spread selling a higher strike). It provides some offset to the bearish put flow.
Read-through: A +26.8% OTM call with 106 DTE. The positive net premium at the $380 and $400 strikes suggests this flow is likely bought, representing a long-term bullish breakout bet. However, its notional is dwarfed by the $280 put block, making it a secondary theme.
Read-through: Extremely high IV (146%) and a -64.6% strike. This is a continuation of the deep OTM put activity noted last week. The size and extreme nature suggest it's likely a persistent, cheap portfolio hedge against a black swan event, not a new directional view. It's signal of caution, not a near-term price target.
Institutional Positioning
Call additions: Modest activity at $335 (April) and $430 (July) calls. The aggressive $340-$370 call buying from last week has paused.
Put additions: Major new hedge at the $280 Oct'26 put. Additional speculative/hedging puts at $240 (April) and deep OTM $120.
GEX/DEX consistency: No — flow and GEX are in conflict. Positive GEX (+$5.9M) suggests a pinning regime near $330, which should suppress volatility and promote mean reversion. However, the bearish put flow (especially the $280P block) indicates institutions are actively hedging against a breakdown, testing the stabilizing effect of dealer gamma.
OI clusters: Major Gamma/Resistance: $330 (Call OI: 16,820; Put OI: 19,431+13,290). This is the key gamma flip and pin zone. Major Call Walls: $300 (46.7K), $370 (33.5K), $400 (14.4K). Major Put Walls: $330 (32.7K total), $175 (16.8K), $340 (13.4K).
Hedging evidence: Strong evidence. The $280P block is a clear, large-scale hedge. The $240P and $120P activity adds to a layered hedging strategy across timeframes. This contrasts with last week's offensive call buying.
Max pain context: Spot ($339.04) is essentially at the aggregate max pain (~$338). This creates a gravitational pull, but the new bearish flow is betting against this pin holding.
Signal vs Noise
Key Conclusions
Read the Flow analysis for TSM for 2026-04-02. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.