TSM Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 25, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 massive net premium bullish; +1 spot above MP with rising trend; -0.5 high P/C volume ratio; -0.5 high IV regime

Watch next session: $360C 4/2 OI buildup; Reaction to $300C/P massive flow; Any follow-through in $317.5P puts

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$109.2M strongly bullish

P/C volume ratio: 1.14 — slight put skew in volume

P/C OI ratio: 1.48 — significant put skew in open interest

Massive bullish net premium driven by a few enormous call prints is at odds with a market showing elevated put volume and open interest. The flow suggests large, concentrated bullish bets are being placed, while the broader options market remains defensively positioned.

Notable Prints

TSM 4/2 $300 Call

Vol: 16,003

OI: 16,035

Vol/OI: 1.0x

IV: ~44% (est. from term structure)

Notional: ~$77.7M

Intent: Fresh directional call buying or a massive roll

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold/covered (neutral-bearish)

Read-through: This is the dominant flow of the day. The notional value is enormous. Given the deep ITM nature ($47.75 intrinsic) and the massive net premium, this is most likely a large bullish position initiation or a roll from a previous winning trade. The size overwhelms all other flow.

TSM 4/2 $317.50 Put

Vol: 5,677

OI: 161

Vol/OI: 35.3x

IV: 52.7%

Notional: ~$5.7M (est. premium ~$1k/contract)

Intent: New OTM put purchase for protection or speculation

Dual read: Bought (bearish/protective) or sold (income)

Read-through: High volume vs. OI and elevated IV suggest new positioning. With spot at $347.75, these are 8.7% OTM. Likely a hedge against a pullback or a speculative bet on a move down to the $317.50 area, which aligns with near-term max pain levels.

TSM 4/2 $360 Call

Vol: 7,934

OI: 1,152

Vol/OI: 6.9x

IV: 41.6%

Notional: ~$7.0M

Intent: Fresh OTM call buying for upside leverage

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (neutral)

Read-through: Significant volume in a 3.5% OTM call for the weekly expiry. The high vol/OI ratio points to new bullish bets targeting a breakout above $360. This complements the massive ITM call flow, showing bullish conviction across strikes.

TSM 11/20 $470 Put

Vol: 149

OI: 10

Vol/OI: 14.9x

IV: 37.5%

Notional: ~$3.3M (est. premium ~$22k/contract)

Intent: Tail-risk hedge or part of a complex structure

Dual read: Bought (long-term hedge) or sold (income)

Read-through: Extremely high vol/OI on a far-dated, deep OTM put (+35% from spot). The high notional premium suggests this is a purchased put, likely as a long-dated, low-delta hedge against a major downturn, not a near-term directional bet.

TSM 4/2 $352.50 Call

Vol: 877

OI: 73

Vol/OI: 12.0x

IV: 46.6%

Notional: ~$877k (est. premium ~$1k/contract)

Intent: Near-the-money call speculation

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (resistance bet)

Read-through: New activity just above the spot price. Given the bullish context from larger prints, this is likely speculative call buying targeting a move above $352.50 in the short term.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Massive $300C (4/2), significant $360C (4/2), $352.50C (4/2). Focus on April weekly expiry.

Put additions: $317.50P, $337.50P, $332.50P (all 4/2); long-dated $470P (11/20). Concentrated in near-term OTM strikes.

GEX/DEX consistency: Mixed. Positive GEX (+$5.0M) suggests pinning/mean-reverting forces near spot, which aligns with heavy OI at $330. However, the massive bullish premium flow is a stronger directional signal than the GEX.

OI clusters: Major Call Wall: $330 (42,081 OI). Major Put Walls: $330 (23,161 OI), $300 (20,542 OI), $340 (17,247 OI). This creates a dense resistance/support zone between $330-$340.

Hedging evidence: Yes. The $317.50P, $337.50P prints, and the far-dated $470P are classic hedging behaviors. The $300P OI cluster is also likely a large, existing hedge.

Max pain context: Spot ($347.75) is well above near-term max pain ($327.50-$340), creating a gravitational pull lower. However, the rising MP trend to $350 by April and the enormous bullish flow suggest a battle between pinning forces and bullish momentum.

Signal vs Noise

~The $300 Call/Put massive flow is likely a single, large institutional roll or position adjustment. The nearly equal volume and OI at that strike for both calls and puts is highly unusual and points to a structured trade, not pure directional sentiment.

~High IV (106.6%) on the $240 Put (4/2) is noise—likely a very low-priced, far OTM contract with minimal premium impact.

~Some of the put volume in the $330-$340 zone may be dealers delta-hedging the enormous $300 call position, not new bearish bets.

Key Conclusions

💥A single, enormous bullish bet ($300C) dominates the flow, creating a +$109M net premium skew.

🛡️Institutional hedging is evident in near-term OTM puts ($317.5P) and a long-dated tail-risk hedge ($470P).

🧲Spot is caught between bullish flow momentum and pinning forces from high OI at $330-$340, with max pain pulling lower near-term.

📈Watch $360C (4/2) for follow-through; a break above $352.50 could trigger gamma acceleration given the call OI buildup.

Read the Flow analysis for TSM for 2026-03-25. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.