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TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $392.61EOD only

Max Pain

$400.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$15.53

4.0% from close

Price Gap

+7.39

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.41

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

TSM Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 25, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 25, 2026. A newer flow report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 massive net premium bullish; +1 spot above MP with rising trend; -0.5 high P/C volume ratio; -0.5 high IV regime

Watch next session: $360C 4/2 OI buildup; Reaction to $300C/P massive flow; Any follow-through in $317.5P puts

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$109.2M strongly bullish

P/C volume ratio: 1.14 — slight put skew in volume

P/C OI ratio: 1.48 — significant put skew in open interest

Massive bullish net premium driven by a few enormous call prints is at odds with a market showing elevated put volume and open interest. The flow suggests large, concentrated bullish bets are being placed, while the broader options market remains defensively positioned.

Notable Prints

TSM 4/2 $300 Call

Vol: 16,003

OI: 16,035

Vol/OI: 1.0x

IV: ~44% (est. from term structure)

Notional: ~$77.7M

Intent: Fresh directional call buying or a massive roll

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold/covered (neutral-bearish)

Read-through: This is the dominant flow of the day. The notional value is enormous. Given the deep ITM nature ($47.75 intrinsic) and the massive net premium, this is most likely a large bullish position initiation or a roll from a previous winning trade. The size overwhelms all other flow.

TSM 4/2 $317.50 Put

Vol: 5,677

OI: 161

Vol/OI: 35.3x

IV: 52.7%

Notional: ~$5.7M (est. premium ~$1k/contract)

Intent: New OTM put purchase for protection or speculation

Dual read: Bought (bearish/protective) or sold (income)

Read-through: High volume vs. OI and elevated IV suggest new positioning. With spot at $347.75, these are 8.7% OTM. Likely a hedge against a pullback or a speculative bet on a move down to the $317.50 area, which aligns with near-term max pain levels.

TSM 4/2 $360 Call

Vol: 7,934

OI: 1,152

Vol/OI: 6.9x

IV: 41.6%

Notional: ~$7.0M

Intent: Fresh OTM call buying for upside leverage

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (neutral)

Read-through: Significant volume in a 3.5% OTM call for the weekly expiry. The high vol/OI ratio points to new bullish bets targeting a breakout above $360. This complements the massive ITM call flow, showing bullish conviction across strikes.

TSM 11/20 $470 Put

Vol: 149

OI: 10

Vol/OI: 14.9x

IV: 37.5%

Notional: ~$3.3M (est. premium ~$22k/contract)

Intent: Tail-risk hedge or part of a complex structure

Dual read: Bought (long-term hedge) or sold (income)

Read-through: Extremely high vol/OI on a far-dated, deep OTM put (+35% from spot). The high notional premium suggests this is a purchased put, likely as a long-dated, low-delta hedge against a major downturn, not a near-term directional bet.

TSM 4/2 $352.50 Call

Vol: 877

OI: 73

Vol/OI: 12.0x

IV: 46.6%

Notional: ~$877k (est. premium ~$1k/contract)

Intent: Near-the-money call speculation

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold (resistance bet)

Read-through: New activity just above the spot price. Given the bullish context from larger prints, this is likely speculative call buying targeting a move above $352.50 in the short term.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Massive $300C (4/2), significant $360C (4/2), $352.50C (4/2). Focus on April weekly expiry.

Put additions: $317.50P, $337.50P, $332.50P (all 4/2); long-dated $470P (11/20). Concentrated in near-term OTM strikes.

GEX/DEX consistency: Mixed. Positive GEX (+$5.0M) suggests pinning/mean-reverting forces near spot, which aligns with heavy OI at $330. However, the massive bullish premium flow is a stronger directional signal than the GEX.

OI clusters: Major Call Wall: $330 (42,081 OI). Major Put Walls: $330 (23,161 OI), $300 (20,542 OI), $340 (17,247 OI). This creates a dense resistance/support zone between $330-$340.

Hedging evidence: Yes. The $317.50P, $337.50P prints, and the far-dated $470P are classic hedging behaviors. The $300P OI cluster is also likely a large, existing hedge.

Max pain context: Spot ($347.75) is well above near-term max pain ($327.50-$340), creating a gravitational pull lower. However, the rising MP trend to $350 by April and the enormous bullish flow suggest a battle between pinning forces and bullish momentum.

Signal vs Noise

~The $300 Call/Put massive flow is likely a single, large institutional roll or position adjustment. The nearly equal volume and OI at that strike for both calls and puts is highly unusual and points to a structured trade, not pure directional sentiment.

~High IV (106.6%) on the $240 Put (4/2) is noise—likely a very low-priced, far OTM contract with minimal premium impact.

~Some of the put volume in the $330-$340 zone may be dealers delta-hedging the enormous $300 call position, not new bearish bets.

Key Conclusions

💥A single, enormous bullish bet ($300C) dominates the flow, creating a +$109M net premium skew.

🛡️Institutional hedging is evident in near-term OTM puts ($317.5P) and a long-dated tail-risk hedge ($470P).

🧲Spot is caught between bullish flow momentum and pinning forces from high OI at $330-$340, with max pain pulling lower near-term.

📈Watch $360C (4/2) for follow-through; a break above $352.50 could trigger gamma acceleration given the call OI buildup.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 25, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.