thetaOwl

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturClose $392.61EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$15.53
4.0% from close
Price Gap
+7.39
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
1.41
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TSM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
TSM Flow Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer flow report is available for April 6, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

BiasBullish
Confirmation: Spot reclaiming $340 and sustained net premium >$30M with P/C <0.7
Invalidation: Net premium flipping negative or P/C >1.0 with spot breaking $325
Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 net premium strongly bullish; +1 spot below MP with positive GEX; +1 call-dominant volume; -0.5 P/C OI ratio defensive; -0.5 high IV regime

Watch next session: $370C 6/18 OI reaction; Follow-through in $340-$342.5C calls; Spot vs $330 gamma flip level

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$32.3M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.63 — call-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 1.39 — significant put skew in positioning

A sharp reversal from last week's bearish flow. Net premium has flipped from -$25M to +$32M, with volume heavily skewed toward calls. This suggests aggressive call buying is overriding the defensive put positioning still visible in OI.

Notable Prints

#1
TSM 6/18 $370 Call
Vol: 14,417
OI: 3,141
Vol/OI: 4.6x
IV: 42.6%
Notional: ~$18.6M (est. premium ~$1.3k/contract)
Intent: Fresh directional call buying for a Q2 breakout
Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (resistance)

Read-through: This is the single largest premium flow strike (+$16.7M net). The high volume relative to OI and elevated but not extreme IV suggests new long call positioning. The $370 strike (+11.7% from spot) targets a move above the April/May max pain cluster at $340, indicating a bet on a significant rally over the next 80 days.

#2
TSM 4/10 $340 Call
Vol: 2,112
OI: 452
Vol/OI: 4.7x
IV: 35.2%
Notional: ~$8.1M (est. premium ~$3.8k/contract)
Intent: Near-term directional bet through earnings
Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (covered call)

Read-through: Massive premium flow at this strike. The $340 level is a key max pain point for multiple April expiries and a major call OI cluster (14,427). This volume, just 11 days out and ahead of the 4/16 earnings date, is likely speculative call buying targeting a run toward that level. The relatively low IV (35.2%) suggests these were bought, not sold.

#3
TSM 5/1 $190 Put
Vol: 467
OI: 57
Vol/OI: 8.2x
IV: 88.9%
Notional: ~$2.1M (est. premium ~$4.5k/contract)
Intent: Deep OTM speculative put or tail-risk hedge
Dual read: Bought (bearish hedge) or sold (income)

Read-through: Continuation of last week's deep put activity. The extremely high IV (88.9%) and low OI suggest these are likely new purchases, not sales. However, its notional is dwarfed by the call flows. This could be a persistent hedge for a large long portfolio, not a new directional bearish bet, given the overwhelming bullish premium elsewhere.

#4
TSM 4/10 $342.5 Call
Vol: 838
OI: 121
Vol/OI: 6.9x
IV: 36.4%
Notional: Premium not in top list, but significant flow
Intent: Upside call buying above the $340 resistance
Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (resistance)

Read-through: Clustered with the $340C activity, this print targets a move just above the key max pain/resistance level. The high vol/OI ratio indicates new positioning. This reinforces the narrative of aggressive call buying targeting a breakout above the $340 area in the near term.

#5
TSM 4/2 $307.5 Call
Vol: 122
OI: 24
Vol/OI: 5.1x
IV: 0.0%
Notional: Premium not in top list
Intent: Arbitrage or structured trade
Dual read: Part of a multi-leg trade

Read-through: The 0% IV is a clear data anomaly, but the strike is $23.75 below spot (-7.2%), making it deep ITM. This is almost certainly part of a conversion, box spread, or other arbitrage/structured trade. It is noise from a directional perspective.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Aggressive additions at $340-$342.5 (4/10) and $370 (6/18). Premium flow overwhelmingly positive at $370, $400, $390.

Put additions: Minimal new hedging outside of deep OTM $190/$195 puts. Premium flow negative but concentrated at lower strikes ($240, $300).

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — aligned but with nuance. Positive GEX (+$4.2M) indicates a pinning/mean-reverting regime. Dealers are long gamma near $330 and will hedge in a stabilizing way (buying dips, selling rips). This supports the bullish flow's attempt to push spot higher against the $340 call wall.

OI clusters: Major Call Walls: $330 (42K OI), $340 (14K OI), $400 (14K OI). Major Put Walls: $330 (19K OI), $175 (15.8K OI), $340 (13K OI). The $330 strike is a massive gamma pin with large OI on both sides. The $340 call wall is the immediate target for the new bullish flow.

Hedging evidence: The deep OTM put purchases ($190/$195) persist but are small relative to call buying. The massive $175 put OI cluster remains a long-term institutional hedge. The current flow is not defensive; it's offensive.

Max pain context: Spot ($331.25) is 1.9% below near-term max pain (~$338), creating a gravitational pull higher. The new call flow is directly targeting a move toward the $338-$340 max pain cluster.

Signal vs Noise

~The $115 Call with $2.4M net premium is noise—likely a deep ITM trade for financing/arbitrage.
~The $307.5 Call 4/2 with 0% IV is a data error or arbitrage leg, not a directional bet.
~Some of the weekly call volume (e.g., $295C 4/2) may be part of bullish risk reversals (selling puts to buy calls) or other spreads, not pure long calls.

Key Conclusions

🔄Complete flow reversal from last week. Net premium flipped from -$25M bearish to +$32M bullish.
🚀Institutions are making large, directional call bets at $340-$342.5 (April) and $370 (June), targeting a breakout.
📌Positive GEX (+$4.2M) creates a pinning regime near $330. Dealers will act as a stabilizer, but bullish flow is testing the upper bound.
🎯Battle lines drawn at $340. Massive call OI there forms a resistance wall, but today's flow is aggressively buying toward it.
How to Use These Reports
This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.