TSM Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 net premium strongly bullish; +1 spot below MP with positive GEX; +1 call-dominant volume; -0.5 P/C OI ratio defensive; -0.5 high IV regime

Watch next session: $370C 6/18 OI reaction; Follow-through in $340-$342.5C calls; Spot vs $330 gamma flip level

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$32.3M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.63 — call-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 1.39 — significant put skew in positioning

A sharp reversal from last week's bearish flow. Net premium has flipped from -$25M to +$32M, with volume heavily skewed toward calls. This suggests aggressive call buying is overriding the defensive put positioning still visible in OI.

Notable Prints

TSM 6/18 $370 Call

Vol: 14,417

OI: 3,141

Vol/OI: 4.6x

IV: 42.6%

Notional: ~$18.6M (est. premium ~$1.3k/contract)

Intent: Fresh directional call buying for a Q2 breakout

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (resistance)

Read-through: This is the single largest premium flow strike (+$16.7M net). The high volume relative to OI and elevated but not extreme IV suggests new long call positioning. The $370 strike (+11.7% from spot) targets a move above the April/May max pain cluster at $340, indicating a bet on a significant rally over the next 80 days.

TSM 4/10 $340 Call

Vol: 2,112

OI: 452

Vol/OI: 4.7x

IV: 35.2%

Notional: ~$8.1M (est. premium ~$3.8k/contract)

Intent: Near-term directional bet through earnings

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (covered call)

Read-through: Massive premium flow at this strike. The $340 level is a key max pain point for multiple April expiries and a major call OI cluster (14,427). This volume, just 11 days out and ahead of the 4/16 earnings date, is likely speculative call buying targeting a run toward that level. The relatively low IV (35.2%) suggests these were bought, not sold.

TSM 5/1 $190 Put

Vol: 467

OI: 57

Vol/OI: 8.2x

IV: 88.9%

Notional: ~$2.1M (est. premium ~$4.5k/contract)

Intent: Deep OTM speculative put or tail-risk hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish hedge) or sold (income)

Read-through: Continuation of last week's deep put activity. The extremely high IV (88.9%) and low OI suggest these are likely new purchases, not sales. However, its notional is dwarfed by the call flows. This could be a persistent hedge for a large long portfolio, not a new directional bearish bet, given the overwhelming bullish premium elsewhere.

TSM 4/10 $342.5 Call

Vol: 838

OI: 121

Vol/OI: 6.9x

IV: 36.4%

Notional: Premium not in top list, but significant flow

Intent: Upside call buying above the $340 resistance

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (resistance)

Read-through: Clustered with the $340C activity, this print targets a move just above the key max pain/resistance level. The high vol/OI ratio indicates new positioning. This reinforces the narrative of aggressive call buying targeting a breakout above the $340 area in the near term.

TSM 4/2 $307.5 Call

Vol: 122

OI: 24

Vol/OI: 5.1x

IV: 0.0%

Notional: Premium not in top list

Intent: Arbitrage or structured trade

Dual read: Part of a multi-leg trade

Read-through: The 0% IV is a clear data anomaly, but the strike is $23.75 below spot (-7.2%), making it deep ITM. This is almost certainly part of a conversion, box spread, or other arbitrage/structured trade. It is noise from a directional perspective.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Aggressive additions at $340-$342.5 (4/10) and $370 (6/18). Premium flow overwhelmingly positive at $370, $400, $390.

Put additions: Minimal new hedging outside of deep OTM $190/$195 puts. Premium flow negative but concentrated at lower strikes ($240, $300).

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — aligned but with nuance. Positive GEX (+$4.2M) indicates a pinning/mean-reverting regime. Dealers are long gamma near $330 and will hedge in a stabilizing way (buying dips, selling rips). This supports the bullish flow's attempt to push spot higher against the $340 call wall.

OI clusters: Major Call Walls: $330 (42K OI), $340 (14K OI), $400 (14K OI). Major Put Walls: $330 (19K OI), $175 (15.8K OI), $340 (13K OI). The $330 strike is a massive gamma pin with large OI on both sides. The $340 call wall is the immediate target for the new bullish flow.

Hedging evidence: The deep OTM put purchases ($190/$195) persist but are small relative to call buying. The massive $175 put OI cluster remains a long-term institutional hedge. The current flow is not defensive; it's offensive.

Max pain context: Spot ($331.25) is 1.9% below near-term max pain (~$338), creating a gravitational pull higher. The new call flow is directly targeting a move toward the $338-$340 max pain cluster.

Signal vs Noise

~The $115 Call with $2.4M net premium is noise—likely a deep ITM trade for financing/arbitrage.

~The $307.5 Call 4/2 with 0% IV is a data error or arbitrage leg, not a directional bet.

~Some of the weekly call volume (e.g., $295C 4/2) may be part of bullish risk reversals (selling puts to buy calls) or other spreads, not pure long calls.

Key Conclusions

🔄Complete flow reversal from last week. Net premium flipped from -$25M bearish to +$32M bullish.

🚀Institutions are making large, directional call bets at $340-$342.5 (April) and $370 (June), targeting a breakout.

📌Positive GEX (+$4.2M) creates a pinning regime near $330. Dealers will act as a stabilizer, but bullish flow is testing the upper bound.

🎯Battle lines drawn at $340. Massive call OI there forms a resistance wall, but today's flow is aggressively buying toward it.

Read the Flow analysis for TSM for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.