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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $80.78EOD only
Max Pain
$82.00
Next expiry Sep 11, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.65
0.8% from close
Price Gap
+1.22
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
51
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 10, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 10, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 12, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Short premium
Invalidation: Break of gamma flip at $80
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.9% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
IV (13.9%) below VIX (17.68)
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Near-term dip at 3d then gradual rise, slight forward skew

📈Bullish flow: put/call vol ratio 0.55, GEX +$1.2B
📌Max pain pinned at $85 across expiries
📊Call OI wall $95-$110, put floor $80

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.2B)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,913 (6.7% below spot)

OI concentrations: Call OI wall $95-$110, put floor $80

Verdict: Price pinned near $85; strong dealer gamma supports pinning

Premium Opportunities

#1
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-24 $84.50/$83.00 put wing and $86.00/$88.00 call wing
Sells put and call wings to capture time decay within range.
Credit: $0.92-$1.12
Max loss: $0.88
BE: 83.38 / 87.12
Mgmt: Close at 50% or near expiration; adjust if price approaches wings.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip at $80 is key invalidation level
!VIX at 17.68 suggests moderate vol despite low regime
!Short-dated IV dip may distort near-term premiums
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.