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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $83.75EOD only

Max Pain

$83.50

Next expiry Jul 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.56

0.7% from close

Price Gap

-0.25

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.77

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jul 27, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jul 27, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 11, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 11, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV 13.8% vs VIX 19.4% - cheap premiums

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Contango but 6/18 IV spike to 22%

📉IV well below VIX; cheap to sell

⚠️Front-end IV spike on 6/18 expiry

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.3B)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,967 (7.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put floor $80 (117K); Call wall $95-$110

Verdict: Pinning at $85 max pain; gamma flip risk at $80

Premium Opportunities

Iron condor

Sell 2026-07-17 $83.00/$81.00 put wing and $87.00/$90.00 call wing

Sell 2026-07-17 $83/$81 put and $87/$90 call.

Credit: $0.57-$0.70

Max loss: $2.30

BE: 82.30 / 87.70

Mgmt: Monitor for break below $80 or above $90; close if invalidation triggered.

Risk Alerts

!Front-end IV spike on 6/18 suggests event risk

!Gamma flip at $80 if spot drops

!Mixed flow may cause whipsaw

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 11, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.