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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $82.20EOD only

Max Pain

$82.00

Next expiry Sep 9, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.47

0.6% from close

Price Gap

-0.20

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.71

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Sep 8, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Sep 8, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 10, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV 14.7% well below VIX 22.2% - cheap options but risk of vol expansion

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Near-term ATM IV very low (4-8% 0-2 DTE), overall contango but flat

📉IV far below VIX; options cheap but vol risk

🟢Dealer GEX +$103.7M, long gamma supports pinning

🎯Max pain $85 across multiple expiries; spot near pin

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+103.7M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 117,955 (5.7% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $85 with heavy OI; put floor $80 (117,955 OI)

Verdict: Low pin risk due to dealer long gamma and strong max pain pinning

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $83.50/$82.00 put spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $83.50/$82.00 put spread to capture premium with limited risk.

Credit: $0.21-$0.26

Max loss: $1.24

BE: $83.24

Mgmt: Monitor invalidation at $83.75; exit or adjust if breached.

Risk Alerts

!IV compressed vs VIX - watch for vol spike

!Spot at max pain - sharp move possible if pin breaks

!Call wall $90-$110 caps upside

!Aggressive short put has unlimited loss risk on gap-down

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.