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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $81.74EOD only
Max Pain
$79.00
Next expiry Oct 23, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.59
0.7% from close
Price Gap
-2.74
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
45
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.56
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Oct 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Oct 22, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 9, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness9 / 10
Sizing: Aggressive
Primary: Put credit spreads at $85 strike
Invalidation: Break below $84.27 (1w guardrail) or gamma flip at $80
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
IV 14.9% well below VIX 19.9%; low relative volatility
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Normal contango with elevated near-term call skew (22.8% IV on 1d calls)

📊IV low vs VIX; premium selling attractive
⚠️Elevated call skew suggests upside hedging demand

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+188.3M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 118,578 (6.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $85; put floor $80 (118K OI); call wall $90-$110

Verdict: Pinning at $85 across multiple expirations; bullish flow reinforces pin

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $83.00/$80.00 put spread
Sell July 2026 $83/$80 put spread to collect premium with max loss capped below $80.5.
Credit: $0.26-$0.32
Max loss: $2.68
BE: $82.68
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $85 or premium decays to 50% of credit.
#2
Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-02 $83.00 put + sell $86.00 call
Sell $83 put and $86 call for premium, profiting if TLT stays in range.
Credit: $0.70-$0.85
Max loss: Unlimited
BE: 82.15 / 86.85
Mgmt: Close if spot nears either strike or VIX spikes above 25.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip at $80 if spot drops
!Elevated near-term call skew
!VIX >19 indicates macro uncertainty
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.