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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $85.12EOD only

Max Pain

$85.00

Next expiry Jun 10, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.56

0.7% from close

Price Gap

-0.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

9.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 9, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 9, 2026 close

TLT Theta Report

Analysis based on market close June 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20

IV Environment

IV Regime

Low

IV vs VIX

IV 14.9% well below VIX 19.9%; low relative volatility

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Normal contango with elevated near-term call skew (22.8% IV on 1d calls)

📊IV low vs VIX; premium selling attractive

⚠️Elevated call skew suggests upside hedging demand

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+188.3M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 118,578 (6.0% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $85; put floor $80 (118K OI); call wall $90-$110

Verdict: Pinning at $85 across multiple expirations; bullish flow reinforces pin

Premium Opportunities

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-07-17 $83.00/$80.00 put spread

Sell July 2026 $83/$80 put spread to collect premium with max loss capped below $80.5.

Credit: $0.26-$0.32

Max loss: $2.68

BE: $82.68

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $85 or premium decays to 50% of credit.

Short strangle

Sell 2026-07-02 $83.00 put + sell $86.00 call

Sell $83 put and $86 call for premium, profiting if TLT stays in range.

Credit: $0.70-$0.85

Max loss: Unlimited

BE: 82.15 / 86.85

Mgmt: Close if spot nears either strike or VIX spikes above 25.

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip at $80 if spot drops

!Elevated near-term call skew

!VIX >19 indicates macro uncertainty

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on June 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.