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TLT

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClose $82.21EOD only
Max Pain
$82.00
Next expiry Sep 9, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.55
0.7% from close
Price Gap
-0.21
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Sep 4, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects TLT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Sep 4, 2026 close
TLT Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 8, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness4 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Defensive strategies (avoid naked short premium)
Invalidation: Spot breaks beyond $80-$86 range
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
Low
IV vs VIX
IV at 15.4% vs VIX 18.9, discounted
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Short-term skew elevated on calls; profile flattens beyond 1W

⚠️Negative GEX (-$51.4M) and mixed flow suggest caution
📈0DTE call IV at 24.9% offers premium but short-dated risk

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Trending ($-51.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 95,230 (5.5% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $85; put floor $80-$80; call wall $90-$110

Verdict: Neutral; spot likely pins near $84-$86

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00 put / buy 2026-09-18 $85.00 put
Sell Jul $85 put, buy Sep $85 put to benefit from time decay while limiting downside risk.
Debit: $0.77-$0.94
Max loss: $0.94
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor pin; exit if spot breaks below $83.3.
#2
Call calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $87.00 call / buy 2026-09-18 $87.00 call
Sell Jul $87 call, buy Sep $87 call to profit from theta decay in low-vol environment.
Debit: $0.61-$0.74
Max loss: $0.74
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Invalidates below $83.3; roll if spot rallies near $90.

Risk Alerts

!Negative dealer gamma amplifies spot moves
!Low IV limits premium potential
!Call wall at $90 may cap upside
!Gap risk high; avoid uncovered short premium
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.