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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $1025.36EOD only
Max Pain
$1000.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$42.20
4.1% from close
Price Gap
-25.36
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
17
Low premium
P/C OI
1.19
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 25, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 25, 2026 close
STX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

STX earnings 7/28; IV elevated with put skew; 100% beat rate; confidence 4.5.

Confidence:
4.5 / 10
base 5; -1 spot 10.5% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Put heavy flow and elevated IV suggest hedging ahead of event.
📉Put volume ratio 1.6, bearish flow
⚖️100% beat rate history vs bearish positioning creates tension

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,682 (11.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (32 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$84.75 (9.4%)
  • 2026-07-10 (14d): ±$124.40 (13.8%)
  • 2026-07-17 (21d): ±$152.60 (17.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Backwardated, 6d 9.4%, 14d 13.8%, 21d 17.0%

Crush estimate: Expected IV drop post-earnings, likely 30-50%

Skew: Put skew elevated, put/call volume ratio 1.6

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move 5.2% vs implied 6.0% (undermoves)

Directional bias: Historically bullish (100% beat rate), but current put skew signals caution

Key Levels

1$800.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $815.15/$984.65
3Max pain pins: $1005 (2026-06-26); $980 (2026-07-02); $945 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put volume on $800 and $900 puts

Bearish positioning or hedging ahead of earnings

Strategies

Bearish Put
Buy 2026-07-31 $875.00 put
Debit: $79.92-$97.68
Max loss: $97.68
Max gain: $777.32
BE: $777.32
Trigger: Invalidate at $900; adjust if spot holds above resistance. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Put skew and spot below max pain favor downside hedging; 100% beat rate uncertain.
Outperforms: Long put profits from expected downside or hedges risk.
Underperforms: Break above resistance weakens downside thesis.
Volatility Straddle
Buy 2026-07-02 $905.00 put + buy $905.00 call
Debit: $75.29-$92.02
Max loss: $92.02
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 812.98 / 997.02
Trigger: Exit before event to avoid crush; adjust after initial move. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.
Mixed signals (bull history vs put skew) make straddle ideal for big move either way.
Outperforms: Long straddle captures any large post-earnings swing.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Bullish Call
Buy 2026-08-21 $1170.00 call
Debit: $47.07-$57.53
Max loss: $57.53
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $1227.53
Trigger: Invalidate below $860; trail stops above $900 resistance. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Historical 100% beat rate supports upside, but current put skew contradicts.
Outperforms: Long call for bullish surprise if beat streak continues.
Underperforms: Failure at support and IV crush weaken long-call thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot 10.5% below max pain, selling pressure
!Put OI concentration at $800 (floor)
!Implied move 6%, actual avg 5.2%, potential underperformance

What to Watch

?Spot price reaction to $900 resistance
?Volume on $1000 call wall
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.