Earnings Verdict
Earnings Jul 28; 100% beat history, elevated IV, deep put flow signals hedging.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Max pain $1000 pinning; deep put buying ($200-$300) warns of downside.
⚡100% beat rate but deep puts signal caution.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,677 (22.0% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (33 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$42.20 (4.1%)
- 2026-07-02 (7d): ±$50.70 (4.9%)
- 2026-07-10 (15d): ±$142.35 (13.9%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Front-end 4.1% 1d move, steep backwardation to 13.9% 15d.
Crush estimate: Expected crush ~30-40% post-event.
Skew: Put skew elevated at deep strikes, vol/oi >3x.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Beats often exceed implied move.
Directional bias: Neutral to bullish historically (100% beat).
Key Levels
1$800.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $983.16/$1067.56; 1w $974.66/$1076.06
3Max pain pins: $1000 (2026-06-26); $980 (2026-07-02); $940 (2026-07-10)
Flow Highlights
Unusual puts Jan 2027 $200-$300, vol/oi >3x.
Hedging or bearish tail risk far out.
Strategies
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-07-31 $925.00 put + buy $1250.00 call
Trigger: Exit before earnings or trail stops; manage IV crush risk. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.; long_put: Open interest below 25.
Leverages 100% beat history and elevated IV; wide strikes capture outsized moves while limiting premium risk.
Outperforms: Buy 925 put & 1250 call; profits if post-earnings move exceeds break-evens (~107.64/131.56).
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Risk Assessment
!High IV crush risk if earnings beat.
!Deep put flow may indicate downside concerns.
What to Watch
?Earnings beat vs 4.1% implied move.
?Max pain $1000 pinning for near-term expiry.