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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $1094.04EOD only
Max Pain
$960.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$100.25
9.2% from close
Price Gap
-134.04
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
14
Low premium
P/C OI
1.18
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 22, 2026 close
STX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

STX bullish setup: 100% beat rate, strong flow, pinning gamma.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: 100% historical beat rate with high IV and $147M net flow
📈100% beat rate last 5 quarters
⚠️Put OI 1.18x calls; heavy hedging
💰$147M net premium flow supports bullish bias

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,656 (23.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (35 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (3d): ±$85.05 (8.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (9d): ±$123.30 (11.9%)
  • 2026-07-10 (17d): ±$162.30 (15.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: 3d 8.2% to 17d 15.6%

Crush estimate: Significant post-earnings crush expected

Skew: Put OI elevated (PCR~1.18), hedging flow dominant

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: N/A

Directional bias: Bullish (100% beat rate)

Key Levels

1$800.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $953.54/$1123.64; 1w $915.29/$1161.89
3Max pain pins: $1010 (2026-06-26); $975 (2026-07-02); $940 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

$147M net premium inflow, put/call vol ratio 1.13

Hedging but net premium suggests bullish bias.

Strategies

Iron Condor on STX
Sell 2026-07-31 $1000.00/$990.00 put wing and $1070.00/$1080.00 call wing
Credit: $8.33-$10.18
Max loss: $0.00
Max gain: $10.18
BE: 989.82 / 1080.18
Trigger: Exit at 50% of max gain or before earnings if IV collapses. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.; short_call: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Open interest below 25. Substitutions: long_call: resolved contract 2026-07-31 $1085.00 missing; used 2026-07-31 $1080.00.
Only eligible candidate; high IV crush and pinning near max pain make it the top play.
Outperforms: Sells put wing 1000/990 and call wing 1070/1080, profiting if STX stays within $990-$1070 post-earnings.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!High IV and VIX (19.5) amplify crush risk
!Gamma pinning near $1010 max pain; break could be sharp
!Weak market context (SPY/QQQ -1.5%/-3.3%) adds tail risk

What to Watch

?Max pain pins: $1010, $975, $940
?EM guardrails 2d $953-$1124
?Call wall $1150-$1500 vs put floor $800-$860
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.