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STX

Seagate Technology Holdings PLCClose $856.13EOD only
Max Pain
$840.00
Next expiry Aug 7, 2026
Expected Move
±$97.00
11.3% from close
Price Gap
-16.13
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
1.11
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 31, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects STX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 31, 2026 close
STX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 17, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

STX earnings Jul 28, 41d out. IV high with ±14.5% expected by Jul 2. Massive $1200 call volume (16x OI) for 6/18. 100% historical beat rate.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 71.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Unusual $1200 call sweep (2,985 contracts) signals near-term bullish conviction.
🔥$1200 call 16x OI ratio – extreme bullish bet.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,544 (25.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (41 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$46.75 (4.4%)
  • 2026-06-26 (9d): ±$121.15 (11.4%)
  • 2026-07-02 (15d): ±$154.80 (14.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango: 1d IV ~45%, 15d IV ~70%.

Crush estimate: 30-40% IV crush post-earnings.

Skew: Put OI 14% higher than calls; long-dated puts active.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data.

Directional bias: Bullish historical bias (100% beat rate).

Key Levels

1$800.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $1019.32/$1112.82; 1w $944.92/$1187.22
3Max pain pins: $620 (2026-06-18); $900 (2026-06-26); $890 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual $1200 call 6/18 sweep: 2,985 v 187 OI (16x).

Aggressive bullish positioning.

Strategies

STX Long Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $940.00 put + buy $1440.00 call
Debit: $149.67-$182.93
Max loss: $182.93
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 757.07 / 1622.93
Trigger: Exit if IV collapses or move fails; unlimited upside potential. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.
100% beat rate and unusual call sweep point to large move; strangle captures volatility at low cost.
Outperforms: Buy Aug 21 $940 put and $1440 call for post-earnings breakout.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!$620 max pain far from spot; spot may drift lower.
!Earnings 41d away; IV decay risk in near term.

What to Watch

?$1100 call OI (747 contracts) as resistance.
?Weekly $1200 call IV and gamma exposure.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.