Earnings Verdict
STX earnings Jul 28, 41d out. IV high with ±14.5% expected by Jul 2. Massive $1200 call volume (16x OI) for 6/18. 100% historical beat rate.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 71.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Unusual $1200 call sweep (2,985 contracts) signals near-term bullish conviction.
🔥$1200 call 16x OI ratio – extreme bullish bet.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$800.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,544 (25.0% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (41 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$46.75 (4.4%)
- 2026-06-26 (9d): ±$121.15 (11.4%)
- 2026-07-02 (15d): ±$154.80 (14.5%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Steep contango: 1d IV ~45%, 15d IV ~70%.
Crush estimate: 30-40% IV crush post-earnings.
Skew: Put OI 14% higher than calls; long-dated puts active.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data.
Directional bias: Bullish historical bias (100% beat rate).
Key Levels
1$800.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $1019.32/$1112.82; 1w $944.92/$1187.22
3Max pain pins: $620 (2026-06-18); $900 (2026-06-26); $890 (2026-07-02)
Flow Highlights
Unusual $1200 call 6/18 sweep: 2,985 v 187 OI (16x).
Aggressive bullish positioning.
Strategies
STX Long Strangle
Buy 2026-08-21 $940.00 put + buy $1440.00 call
Trigger: Exit if IV collapses or move fails; unlimited upside potential. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.
100% beat rate and unusual call sweep point to large move; strangle captures volatility at low cost.
Outperforms: Buy Aug 21 $940 put and $1440 call for post-earnings breakout.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Risk Assessment
!$620 max pain far from spot; spot may drift lower.
!Earnings 41d away; IV decay risk in near term.
What to Watch
?$1100 call OI (747 contracts) as resistance.
?Weekly $1200 call IV and gamma exposure.